# Trump speech live 01/08/2019: follow-along thread. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2019, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439 "2019-01-09T01:21:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/101 "2019-01-09T12:56:10Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > [Pictured here](https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1076239448461987841?lang=en) > > I like that they highlighted and zoomed in on the spikes, just to make sure everyone knew it was hurty enough. > > I like to imagine drug smugglers coming to the border and slipping packages of heroin through the slats to their compatriots on the other side. I’ve seen that design. Seems like it wouldn’t be too difficult to insert a jack of some kind between the slats and force them apart. They’re only anchored into the ground, so the higher up you go the more leverage you’ve got. It wouldn’t be trivial to do, but with the right equipment and a little time… > [@UltraVires](#): > > Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure. What about the illegal migrants who come here and are mugged, raped, or killed by American citizens? If the migrant hadn’t been here, that crime would have happened to an American. They’re taking one for the team. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/102 "2019-01-09T13:02:15Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > As is also usual for Trump, it is half a fact with the intent to mislead. > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/two-charts-demolish-the-notion-that-immigrants-here-illegally-commit-more-crime/?utm\_term=.d2dd727f6530](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/two-charts-demolish-the-notion-that-immigrants-here-illegally-commit-more-crime/?utm_term=.d2dd727f6530) I read the link and could not find the half fact. ICE was not mentioned, ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/103 "2019-01-09T13:23:06Z")
I think it’s the oft-repeated trope that illegal immigrants commit more crimes than Americans, which has been debunked several times, yet Trump and company continue to trot it out as an actual fact. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/104 "2019-01-09T13:25:50Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure. Wait, if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than Americans, wouldn’t (or at least couldn’t) that lower the **number** of crimes committed against Americans? Some of the illegal immigrants will commit crimes against Americans, but some of the Americans will also commit crimes against the illegal immigrants instead of the other Americans. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/105 "2019-01-09T13:59:50Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think he’s appreciably off the average for 2018, but you go ahead and believe whatever you like. I have to agree with **HD** about this. We’ve seen fluctuations like this before. Wake me up when his average approval on 538 drops below 40, or his average disapproval climbs above 55. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/106 "2019-01-09T14:01:25Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > As much as I dislike Trump, and as much as I frequently disagree with HD, he’s spot on here. Yes, Trump’s aggregated approval rating on 538 has been trending down in recent weeks, but that change is still very small. As HD noted, Trump’s approval rating throughout 2018 wobbled around in a pretty narrow range of 40-44%. > > I study these kinds of numbers (in a marketing context) for a living. Right now, if I were analyzing those numbers for a client, my observation would be “the trend doesn’t look great, but it’s not dropped low enough, or declined for long enough, for me to feel confident that it’s evidence of a real change in the market.” > > In other words: if it continues the downward trend of the past few weeks, and drops below 40%, and _stays_ below that range where he’s been for the past year, _then_ I might start to suspect that there’s an erosion in his support. Right now, it’s too hard to tell if it’s something bigger than the usual small-scale up and down from the daily news cycle, and / or statistical variance. **HD** started a thread a few months back when Trump’s approval hit 42.8% on 538, as if it were some big improvement. Now that it’s bouncing back down, it’s just statistical noise, according to him. Seems a little inconsistent. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/107 "2019-01-09T14:13:14Z")
If it was such a crisis, why did he wait until Democrats took the House before he started making it out to be the biggest of all fucking deals? He had Paul Ryan, who would dutifully do his bidding and Mitch McConnell, who would burn the Constitution if he can keep confirming right wing judges. Now that he can be stopped, he brings it up. Dumb ass. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/108 "2019-01-09T14:28:58Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Then I’m sure you would support mandatory jail time for those who supply the jobs they’re coming for, right? Back in 2008 the Republican legislature passed a law requiring e-verify be used to deter employers from hiring undocumented aliens. It seemed to be [working](http://ktar.com/story/2098804/study-arizona-law-mandating-e-verify-deters-undocumented-immigrants/). With the shutdown, e-verify is [not working](https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/jobs/2019/01/09/e-verify-system-worker-eligibility-federal-government-shutdown/2507523002/) at the moment which means nobody can be legally hired in this state, maybe for years, if Donny Two-scoops is to be believed. Oopsie. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/109 "2019-01-09T14:51:36Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. The many many Americans who hire them seem to disagree. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/110 "2019-01-09T15:13:25Z")
Of the three+ years of the Trump candidacy/presidency, truly nothing deserved the “nothingburger” label more than that speech last night. A low-energy, unpersuasive whine from a man with zero credibility to speak on the issue other than the job he currently holds, if I were told this speech would convince me to keep working for free, effectively a GOP slave - I would call in sick today with Monster open on my phone and Indeed on my desktop. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/111 "2019-01-09T15:20:53Z")
As we have seen on even this board, [those who are furthest away from the border support it the most.](https://aplus.com/a/border-wall-mexico-texas-arizona-california-new-mexico?no_monetization=true) In other words, the further away you are from the border, the more likely one is to allow themselves to be lied about what is happening at the border. To quote: > [@](#): > > So, where is support for the wall coming from? As it turns out, Trump’s strongest support comes from states with the smallest immigrant presence and — in some cases — the states furthest from the border. Per CNN, in the 2016 election, President Trump won 26 of the 30 states where foreign-born immigrants represented the smallest percentage of the population. South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, **West Virginia** , Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky are all states with fewer than one immigrant for every 20 residents. They also happen to be where Trump’s most ardent support comes from. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/112 "2019-01-09T15:30:02Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I have to agree with **HD** about this. We’ve seen fluctuations like this before. Wake me up when his average approval on 538 drops below 40, or his average disapproval climbs above 55. 40? He was under 40 from May '17 to late January '18. Wake _me_ when he breaks into new ground by more than a hair and that means 35 or less. When we see him at 32 or less that means his rocky core is beginning to flake off too, and that’s when any proven high crimes become actionable by the Senate. Meanwhile this is noise. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/113 "2019-01-09T15:47:30Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Wait, if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than Americans, wouldn’t (or at least couldn’t) that lower the **number** of crimes committed against Americans? Some of the illegal immigrants will commit crimes against Americans, but some of the Americans will also commit crimes against the illegal immigrants instead of the other Americans. Lord Feldon, The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime. Don’t you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/114 "2019-01-09T15:50:19Z")
No. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/115 "2019-01-09T15:51:55Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > Lord Feldon, > > The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime. > > Don’t you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do. No, it won’t. Tell us what _exactly_ is being planned _first_-No blank checks. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/116 "2019-01-09T15:56:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 40? He was under 40 from May '17 to late January '18. Wake _me_ when he breaks into new ground by more than a hair and that means 35 or less. Whatever. Fact is, after all the swings of his first year in office, his approval ratings have been pretty steady since last February. Sure, I’ll wait until later to wake you up, but it still will mean something when his approval breaks out of the range it’s been in for the past 11 months. ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/117 "2019-01-09T16:05:17Z")
Yes. But a wall isn’t the answer. Most people familiar with the subject seem to agree that there better ways of spending the money. Our money, not Mexico’s. And that’s what this is all about. Trump’s damned wall. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/118 "2019-01-09T16:18:46Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > Lord Feldon, > > The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime. > > Don’t you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do. May I direct you to [the post I made on the last page](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21420185&postcount=97)? This is the oldest trick in the racist demagogue’s book. There is literally no group you cannot apply it to, and indeed, nearly no marginalized group it hasn’t been applied to. Declare a group “not us”, complain about literally any kind of “not us” victimizing “us”, and use that to demand violant action against “not us”, regardless of how warranted that action may otherwise be. And who is “not us”? Could be illegal immigrants. Could be refugees. Could be a portion of the populace you don’t want to see as quite “American” - usually new migrants, far too commonly Jews. Could be blacks, gays, democrats… Stop falling for it. Stop enabling it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/119 "2019-01-09T16:56:36Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > Lord Feldon, > > The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime. > > Don’t you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do. Sure. But reducing immigration wont do that. Reducing CRIME will do that. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/120 "2019-01-09T17:13:20Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > It turns out that his speech was fairly successful when it comes to what it really was-a campaign speech for his reelection campaign. Before the speech emails went out on to all his supporter on the mailing list insisting that he needed their monetary support immediately for The Wall, and immediately after the speech another mailing went out to those who didn’t contribute saying that The President was willing to extend the deadline a few hours “for you”(actually, everyone that didn’t give for the cause)…but the funny part about this is that the money didn’t go to The Wall-it went to his reelection campaign. [ > > That’s right. He conned the networks into running a campaign speech live. Even if he didn’t solicit during the speech itself, this seems like it should be a violation of campaign finance law. Lawyers? If it wasn’t illegal the law is an ass. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439.md?page=7)