Trump to put nut on fed reserve board

Thanks for the correction. I didn’t realize that the numbers I was looking at valued gold at other than market value.

I’m confused about why you’re only considering money in circulation here? In the future gold standard, are dollar bills redeemable for gold but money in bank accounts isn’t? Won’t that cause the run on banks to end all runs on banks? How do you even have a functional banking system if a printed dollar bill is worth gold but a bank deposit isn’t?

I’m willing to accept I’m totally wrong about all this stuff, but the above doesn’t make sense to me.

Also, mea culpa here. That value was in someone else’s post later, and my brain remembered the number and the gist of Whack-a-Mole’s comment about becoming “colossally wealthy” and my own math about what the price of gold would be if you went with Money Supply / gold reserves and conflated them all.

I was trying to be conservative. In reality, you are correct and we would probably have to map it to M1 or M2, which simply changes my $7803 number by a factor of 2.5(ish) or 9(ish), making those gold holders even more wealthy, but doesn’t change the validity of the argument he was making.

It appears to me that we’re now in agreement on what the gold standard actually means and what would happen to the price of gold if we chose to do so. If so, we can go back to pointing out what a wingnut Judy Shelton is.

Here’s my take on her as an economist:

Judy Shelton: “Interest rates are too low and over stimulative.”

Trump: “I think we should lower interest rates”

Judy Shelton: “As I was saying, we should lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, and we should kill the Fed and move Ft. Knox into Mar-a-Lago”

I’m not sure the definition of “gold standard” is the interesting topic, but I don’t know that anyone else is interested in the disagreement either. :slight_smile:

how do silver certificate bank notes fit into this?

Bumping this thread to get back to the original topic, Judy Shelton. According to the Wall Street Journal (and other outlets) [I can’t read the whole article due to paywall], her nomination is likely dead now that Sen. Mark Kelly has been sworn in.

Senate Republicans’ bid to confirm Judy Shelton as a Federal Reserve governor appears unlikely to succeed now that a new Democratic senator has been seated, denying President Trump’s nominee the votes needed for approval.

Here’s hoping that’s true.

A Gold standard doesn’t create a static money supply. Gold still gets mined, and net exports directly impact the money supply (ask Britain and China about Hong Kong and drugs). There’s quintillions of it in the solar system. At least 54,000 tons in unmined reserves on earth, with a bit more presumably to be found with advancing technology. What a gold standard does do, presuming the redemption rate is kept both open and fixed (which admittedly, over time, it never truly is), is regulate the growth of the money supply.

Now, the positives:

Elimination of the cantillon effect, for starters. It also makes most wars virtually impossible to afford (sorry warhawks, but if you try to finance it by debt you go bankrupt real quick - why do you think Nixon did what he did? Korea & Vietnam. Europe? WW1/2). It also constrains deficit spending primarily because you also cannot monetize gold denominated debts. It stops the fed from blowing up bubbles quite so easily, so the boom and bust cycle that the fed supposedly ended a hundred years ago but that happens every 7-16 years since the Nixon shock doesn’t continue to transfer wealth from the middle class to the super-wealthy (who do you think bought up all the homes that were on firesale in 2008? It wasn’t the majority of Americans, I’ll tell you that).

It’s a lot. The majority of wealth inequality can be traced directly to our monetary system. There are other issues, but playing fast and loose with the money supply is a big one. 20% of base money in the US was printed since March of 2020 alone.

Yes, Judy Shelton is a radical, but hardly a nut just because she is willing to consider the myriad benefits of a gold standard. Sure, your lord and master JPOW and the Virgin Yellen might print you some tendies here and there if you know how to YOLO, but they’re also extreme radicals by any historical consideration. I mean, come on, negative real interest rates?

I think for this to be true, one would have to believe there was less wealth inequality in times when a country was on the gold standard. In terms of the amount of wealth held by the wealthiest, that’s changed due to increases in productivity, but the ratio of wealthy to everybody else hasn’t changed much in the US since the gilded age. What we’ve seen is the gradual destruction of the middle class thanks to the wealthy consciously choosing to pull up the ladder behind them.

It is impossible to take seriously an argument that suggests a feudal-age monetary system works because it’s supportable by space mining. Plus, what happens the first time someone inevitably finds an asteroid that suddenly quintuples the known reserves of gold? I mean, if we’re mining in space, then literally any destabilizing event is imaginable.

This post is detached from history and the reality it describes.

How does money supply, in and of itself, create wealth inequality?

My thoughts as well but willing to let him explain him/herself

Boy I wish this gold standard sidetrack was a thread of its own, interesting though it may be in its own right.

Do note that the US money printing was ostensibly constrained by gold until 1971 during the nixon shock. Gold convertibility for US citizens was suspended in 1933 under FDR but Breton Woods wouldn’t have happened if the US wasn’t still on a gold standard. The US abused the tar out of this standard, I will freely admit, but to say that the Gold Standard ended with the advent of the fed or in “medieval times” as some have said is just plain ignorance.

Since then, wealth inequality has rapidly increased [pewsocialtrends.org]. In fact, compared to all of history, wealth inequality has never been worse. That includes the gilded age.

I agree that the middle class has been devastated, of course, but the top 1% have not become hundreds of times more productive. That doesn’t even make sense on its face. Labor has not become more productive, but the people who hire laborers have?

Then maybe you should try understanding the argument instead of a strawman. I said the the gold standard does not produce a static money supply, because more gold gets mined and trade changes the supply of money. I then explained that even if at some point in the future all the gold on the planet got mined, there would still be more to mine from space. We don’t currently mine from space because it is not economical to do so, but there is no reasonable theoretical limit to the amount of gold that can be mined in the foreseeable future. The supply of money would not be static. As to the ludicrous part of your statement, four hundred years ago in the “fuedal-age” there was more underground gold reserves undiscovered than there was gold above ground so there was no bloody need to consider mining from space. Don’t be intentionally silly, it makes it hard to take yo useriously.

Perhaps whatever historical fantasy you live in.

The problem is, the underlying premise of the thread - included in the thread title - is that Judy Shelton is a nut because she defends the gold standard. Thus, the entire argument is contingent on the warrants of the arguments for or against the gold standard. If you accept the warrants for it, then the entire premise collapses. If you reject the warrants, then the premise is necessarily true. The entire argument, then, is about the gold standard.

There was no bloody need to consider mining gold from space then. There is no bloody need to consider mining gold from space now. There is no need to do it at all except to make the gold-expansionary equations work. (Apart from the puerile greed of those who endlessly want more because it’s more).

It’s simply insane to suggest that future monetary expansion be dependent on space travel and I’m irritated with myself that I wasted any time responding to this.

You’re intentionally misreading everything that is being said, or you’re just really dense. Nobody is arguing future monetary expansion is dependent upon space travel, at least for the foreseeable future. Eventually, in a hundred plus years maybe, sure. The specific contention made was “gold = static money supply.” My reply was “gold does not create a static money supply.” It is not static now when we can trade for it and mine it, and it won’t be static in the future when we can’t mine it from the surface. It’s not a hard concept.

Modnote: etasyde stop making this personal. You can attack the post, not the poster.

These are not allowed in GD.

This is just a guidance, not a warning. Nothing on your permanent record.
But anything further in this thread will be a warning.

This is not quite accurate historically.



The gold standard was a promise from the monetary authority that they would exchange banknotes for gold, or gold for banknotes, at a fixed ratio: such-and-such a weight of metal in exchange for paper with certain numbers written on them. This did limit total money creation, but not at a one-for-one rate only when people deposited gold.

Central banks can, and did, make other kinds of asset purchases with their own banknotes, without using those newly issued banknotes to purchase gold.

But the promise was that those newly created banknotes, used to purchase (for example) government bonds, could then immediately be returned to the issuing bank in exchange for gold, if the holders so desired. So it was necessary for a monetary authority, on the gold standard, to limit its outstanding banknote liabilities, even with non-gold purchases of assets, lest a large amount of people holding banknotes would show up simultaneously and all demand gold collectively, thereby draining the monetary authority of its gold reserves.



Trying to go onto a gold standard today would have immediate, and extremely large, effects.

If the Federal Reserve tried to peg gold at its current dollar value, then people would immediately rush to the various reserve banks and demand gold in exchange for their banknotes. But the Fed simply doesn’t have enough gold in reserve, at current gold prices, to sustain such a rush on its reserves. It would almost immediately run out of gold, and therefore the standard – a promise to exchange banknotes for gold at a fixed ratio – would immediately end.



An alternative would be to fix the dollar value of gold at a level high enough that people would rather deposit gold at the Fed, in exchange for newly issued banknotes, rather than take gold out by giving up banknotes. The problem is that this would require an extraordinarily high dollar price of gold that would immediately, and vastly, increase the current banknote supply.

It would be massively inflationary. People with gold would deposit that gold at the Fed and receive banknotes at a price vastly in excess of the current market price of gold, and therefore they would receive an extremely large number of banknotes in exchange for that gold. And then they would immediately spend those banknotes on stuff, hopefully before prices shifted upward to destroy the purchasing power of their newly received banknotes.



The only way to make a real transition to a gold standard would be a gentler, slower hybrid system. The Fed could introduce a new parallel currency backed by gold which circulated freely with the current fiat currency, but not pegged to the old currency. This new currency could, at first, have an extremely volatile exchange rate with the old, but perhaps with the hope of stability over the course of time as Fed influence slowly stabilized the price of gold against the rest of the real economy, dampening down the current wild volatility of gold prices. After the price of gold was stabilized against other goods and services, the government could then transition to using the new currency as it slowly removed the old from circulation.

But it’s hard to see what the point of this would be.

The gold standard failed in literally every country. The political equilibrium obviously points toward continued failure. Intelligent monetary cranks today favor massive deregulation of the banking industry instead of a new government-sponsored gold standard.

This right here is enough to show that you’re not on solid footing. While it may technically be true, it’s true in the same way that Communism would work if everybody did their part. Look at WW I; when governments started to run out of gold they just ignored the gold standard. No government is going to say “we ran out of gold, I guess we surrender”. There was no shortage of wars during the golden age (heh) of the gold standard. So you’ve got no benefit there.

I don’t think that would work in practice. The moment you introduce this transitional period is the moment there is a stampede into the new currency and a hyper inflation as people try to dump the USD. If I know, for certain that the hypothetical GUSD is the future currency and will only appreciate with respect to the USD, why would I hold USD for a second longer than I have to? Right now the USD - or rather the Eurodollar - is the “safest bet” long term with the highest liquidity, but the instant something proves itself as better, woe betide those stuck in the USD.

Are you sure about that? Would you pick a country that did surrender, and describe in detail the economic conditions that lead to their decision to surrender? WW1 in particular didn’t exactly end with the total or imminent destruction of anybody’s armies, for instance, or the capture of any major capitol.

See, when a country abandons the gold standard, what’s really happening is a type of default. And yes, I could for instance max out a HELOC on my house, take out personal loans against my car, payday loans on future income, and max out my credit cards all at once, blow it all on hookers and then default. I can make suicidal financial decisions, and some crazy people do just that. But then they face horrifying financial repercussions… as did every country that thusly defaulted in WW1. Perhaps you didn’t hear about the German or worse Hungarian hyperinflations that came right afterwards? Britain and France were spared the worst of it for myriad reasons, but look at the actual economics and prosperity of the people in those defaulting nations in the aftermath. It wasn’t a pretty time.

The gold standard does not guarantee that people wont do stupid things, but it does a good job of making sure that they pay for them, and not their grandkids.

Sure it did: Russia’s military collapsed and Austria-Hungary was close. Germany’s surrender was more complicated but it wasn’t due to lack of gold. Let me repeat: all the countries abandoned the gold standard as soon as it became a detriment to fighting the war. It was in no real way a brake.

Let me ask you this: what country lost a war due to their allegiance to the gold standard?