# Trump vs Clinton in the General Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 17, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989 "2016-05-17T13:19:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/1 "2016-05-17T13:19:00Z")
These [latest polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html) suggest that Clinton does not have the general election in the bag. I have always heard that IF Trump got the Republican nomination, then President Hilary was a foregone conclusion. But the latest polls suggest that the pundits were wrong (again). A few things I can think of that would tip the scales in Trumps favor: -Bernie Sanders runs as an Independent -Another terrorist attack close to home -Another Hilary scandal or indictment due to a current one Is anyone else surprised that the race is this close? What other events might tip the scales in either direction? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/2 "2016-05-17T13:29:59Z")
Right now it’s not particularly close – Hillary leads by moderate margins in most polls in most swing states. The three things you mention could help Trump, though not only is Bernie not going to run as an independent, but there are things just as likely (or more likely) as the other two that could help Hillary – some major Trump scandal from his past; he continues to say things that further turn off women and minority voters; Bernie enthusiastically endorses Hillary and campaigns hard for her; a 3rd party conservative gets on the ballot in some swing states; and more. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/3 "2016-05-17T13:42:29Z")
> [@](#): > > -Another terrorist attack close to home I keep hearing this stated as though in case such an event, the election automatically goes to Trump. At the same time, I keep hearing what a stone Hawk Mrs. Clinton is, and how undesirable _that_ trait is. Could someone make sense of this seeming contradiction for me? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/4 "2016-05-17T13:51:02Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > I keep hearing this stated as though in case such an event, the election automatically goes to Trump. At the same time, I keep hearing what a stone Hawk Mrs. Clinton is, and how undesirable _that_ trait is. Could someone make sense of this seeming contradiction for me? It’s not a contradiction if different people are saying those things. I guess some people think of the Republicans as the more hawkish party so an attack will cause people to run to them. ISTM, that isn’t a position justifiable by the current Presidential choices. I think if anything an attack would cause people to abandon the “anti-establishment” wave. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/5 "2016-05-17T14:03:26Z")
Any polling now is bullshit. It’s not a head-to-head campaign yet. The Pubs have largely sewn things up, the Dems haven’t. That fact will affect the polling results, as will the fact that Clinton, her supporters and the Dem Party haven’t begun launching their assault against Trump. If it still looks this way in September, come back with pie and we’ll talk. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/6 "2016-05-17T14:05:42Z")
Two of these things aren’t going to happen. Sanders is not going to run as an independent. He knows full well that would hand Trump the White House and he prefers Hillary to Trump by several orders of magnitude. Hillary is not going to be indicted. The email scandal and the never-ending Benghazi recreational grief only resonate with people who’d rather pluck out their eyes than vote for a Democrat. That leaves a terror attack. Yes, that would increase Trump’s vote share as it might make more people embrace his Final Solution for Muslims. As we all know, there has never been a terror attack with a Republican- well except for that one day and Bush’s term didn’t start till 9/12/01. A terror attack would increase the paranoia and xenophobia of Americans and who better to exploit that than someone as ill-informed as Trump? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/7 "2016-05-17T14:09:33Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > I keep hearing this stated as though in case such an event, the election automatically goes to Trump. At the same time, I keep hearing what a stone Hawk Mrs. Clinton is, and how undesirable _that_ trait is. Could someone make sense of this seeming contradiction for me? Because HRC wasn’t hawkish enough, especially since she has branded herself as Obama II. Where was she when we needed to ban all Moos-lims from the US of A??? ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/8 "2016-05-17T14:30:31Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Any polling now is bullshit. It’s not a head-to-head campaign yet. The Pubs have largely sewn things up, the Dems haven’t. That fact will affect the polling results, as will the fact that Clinton, her supporters and the Dem Party haven’t begun launching their assault against Trump. > > If it still looks this way in September, come back with pie and we’ll talk. agreed. polls don’t mean much at this point and Clinton is comfortably ahead. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/9 "2016-05-17T14:33:01Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Two of these things aren’t going to happen. Sanders is not going to run as an independent. He knows full well that would hand Trump the White House and he prefers Hillary to Trump by several orders of magnitude. Hillary is not going to be indicted. The email scandal and the never-ending Benghazi recreational grief only resonate with people who’d rather pluck out their eyes than vote for a Democrat. > > That leaves a terror attack. Yes, that would increase Trump’s vote share as it might make more people embrace his Final Solution for Muslims. As we all know, there has never been a terror attack with a Republican- well except for that one day and Bush’s term didn’t start till 9/12/01. A terror attack would increase the paranoia and xenophobia of Americans and who better to exploit that than someone as ill-informed as Trump? I don’t know…would a terrorist attack play into Trump’s hands? I’m not so sure. I think Hillary actually has the more legitimate creds wrt foreign policy and terrorism. I am biased, obviously, since Hillary is who I’m voting for (as long as the Dems don’t jump the shark and nominate Sanders), but it seems to me that if there was such an attack it would move people more towards Hilary than towards Trump. I mean, just the thought of that idiot in charge and able to make decisions after another 9/11 type event literally makes my blood run cold. :eek: ETA: As for the OP, poll numbers at this point are almost meaningless, as neither party has as yet solidified around a candidate (even though Trump is basically the only one in the race now). Until after the conventions and people really start to focus in on their choice all it says is who a certain faction of the faithful on each side support, as you are going to get Sanders adherent who aren’t going to say (in such a poll) that they support Hillary, even though when it comes down to it they will. ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/10 "2016-05-17T14:42:14Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Two of these things aren’t going to happen. Sanders is not going to run as an independent. He knows full well that would hand Trump the White House and he prefers Hillary to Trump by several orders of magnitude. Hillary is not going to be indicted. The email scandal and the never-ending Benghazi recreational grief only resonate with people who’d rather pluck out their eyes than vote for a Democrat. > > That leaves a terror attack. Yes, that would increase Trump’s vote share as it might make more people embrace his Final Solution for Muslims. As we all know, there has never been a terror attack with a Republican- well except for that one day and Bush’s term didn’t start till 9/12/01. A terror attack would increase the paranoia and xenophobia of Americans and who better to exploit that than someone as ill-informed as Trump? Ok so even if I had your confidence that 2 of those things would definitely not happen, there is still a very real possibility that there will be another terror attack before November. I really need some kind of guarantee that the next leader of the free world will not be Donald Trump. This is the stuff of nightmares. ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/11 "2016-05-17T14:46:00Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I don’t know…would a terrorist attack play into Trump’s hands? I’m not so sure. I think Hillary actually has the more legitimate creds wrt foreign policy and terrorism. I am biased, obviously, since Hillary is who I’m voting for (as long as the Dems don’t jump the shark and nominate Sanders), but it seems to me that if there was such an attack it would move people more towards Hilary than towards Trump. I mean, just the thought of that idiot in charge and able to make decisions after another 9/11 type event literally makes my blood run cold. :eek: I wish I agreed with this but I don’t. I think a terror attack, esp on US soil, will make the teeming millions run screaming to big bad Donald who promises to build a wall & "bomb the shit out of the oil fields’ to bankrupt ISIS. And of course he’ll ban all Muslims from entering the US & put cctv in all mosques. People behave irrationally when they are fearful. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/12 "2016-05-17T14:46:19Z")
> [@Enola\_Gay](#): > > Ok so even if I had your confidence that 2 of those things would definitely not happen, there is still a very real possibility that there will be another terror attack before November. I really need some kind of guarantee that the next leader of the free world will not be Donald Trump. This is the stuff of nightmares. I wish I could give you that guarantee. Unfortunately, a Trump victory would be a great win for the terrorists. They want the West to be perceived in the Muslim world as being at war with Islam. If they believe that a fall terror attack in the US would propel Trump to the White House and institutionalize Islamophobia, then I’m afraid that a fall terror attack would be their best strategy. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/13 "2016-05-17T14:51:44Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I wish I could give you that guarantee. Unfortunately, a Trump victory would be a great win for the terrorists. They want the West to be perceived in the Muslim world as being at war with Islam. If they believe that a fall terror attack in the US would propel Trump to the White House and institutionalize Islamophobia, then I’m afraid that a fall terror attack would be their best strategy. Sure, because Trump has been a champion of killing Muslims since 2001 unlike Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/14 "2016-05-17T14:52:34Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > I keep hearing this stated as though in case such an event, the election automatically goes to Trump. At the same time, I keep hearing what a stone Hawk Mrs. Clinton is, and how undesirable _that_ trait is. Could someone make sense of this seeming contradiction for me? “Automatically goes to Trump” is a wild exaggeration — (knock on wood). But the answer to your question is very simple. _ **This election, like all-too-many American elections will be decided by low-information voters** _. Voters with a pulse and access to print media may know Hillary is hawkish, but _such voters are not undecided_. The voters who will decide the election don’t think beyond an assumed connection between militancy and genital configuration. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/15 "2016-05-17T15:03:54Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Sure, because Trump has been a champion of killing Muslims since 2001 unlike Hillary. Which of the two have advocated for a religious test on entry to the US? Which of the two says he’s going to bring back waterboarding and worse? Hillary has been part of the administration that has gone after terrorists, Trump wants to lead an administration that goes after Muslims. There’s a bit of a difference there. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/16 "2016-05-17T15:04:26Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Any polling now is bullshit. It’s not a head-to-head campaign yet. The Pubs have largely sewn things up, the Dems haven’t. That fact will affect the polling results, as will the fact that Clinton, her supporters and the Dem Party haven’t begun launching their assault against Trump. > > If it still looks this way in September, come back with pie and we’ll talk. Absolutely. The vast majority of Americans are not political junkies like so many of us here. If they are going to engage in this election, it’s going to be after Sept, and who knows what things will be driving the news cycle then? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/17 "2016-05-17T15:07:56Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Which of the two have advocated for a religious test on entry to the US? Which of the two says he’s going to bring back waterboarding and worse? Hillary has been part of the administration that has gone after terrorists, Trump wants to lead an administration that goes after Muslims. There’s a bit of a difference there. If the Muslim vote made a difference in this country then you might have a point. For now if Hillary wins she goes into office with a record and a reputation based on reality. Trump can enter with a clean slate. If the world operated on what people say instead of what they do everything would be different. Interesting that Trump is called the demagogue but the anti-Trumpists are running the campaign of fear. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/18 "2016-05-17T15:10:57Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > If the Muslim vote made a difference in this country then you might have a point. For now if Hillary wins she goes into office with a record and a reputation based on reality. Trump can enter with a clean slate. If the world operated on what people say instead of what they do everything would be different. > > Interesting that Trump is called the demagogue but the anti-Trumpists are running the campaign of fear. I’m not concerned with how the Muslims vote, nor does Hillary appear to be. We don’t object to religious tests for entry based on how a group might vote, we object because it is morally wrong. To advocate for a religious test and to advocate for torture are indeed characteristics of a demagogue and of a campaign running on fear and appealing to the deep racist nature of a misinformed base. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/19 "2016-05-17T15:12:20Z")
I am quite in agreement with XT on the terrorism thing. People aren’t going to run to the goofball “outsider” in the event of an attack. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/20 "2016-05-17T15:28:51Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I am quite in agreement with XT on the terrorism thing. People aren’t going to run to the goofball “outsider” in the event of an attack. And yet they’re running to him even WITHOUT an attack. Hilary has tied herself so closely to Obama that a failure of his administration is going to be a failure for her. Imagine that Da-esh pulls off a Paris style attack in the US? That will feed the fear that Obama didn’t take them seriously, and we need a tough guy to go and kick some ass. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989.md?page=2)