# Trump vs Clinton in the General Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 17, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989 "2016-05-17T13:19:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/382 "2016-06-08T01:22:52Z")
The Republican House committees can’t damage her, no. The NY Times can, and they are always looking for new things to report. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/383 "2016-06-08T01:32:49Z")
That’s what all your faint hopes ride on now, isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Yersenia\_Pestis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/e495f1/32.png) [@Yersenia\_Pestis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yersenia_Pestis)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/384 "2016-06-08T01:55:09Z")
So after hearing trump’s “speech” it sounds like he’s going all negative (plus as many conspiracy theories about the Clintons the far right will feed him) and ZERO actual ideas or plans (well sane plans not border walls)… I am actually disappointed that there are dopers that would actually vote for this demagogue, it’s a shame ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/385 "2016-06-08T03:58:37Z")
Are there any dopers who are? They seem few and far between, even among the conservative Dopers. If we took a Doper poll, I bet Trump would finish third, maybe even fourth. Hey, I should start one! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/386 "2016-06-08T04:13:55Z")
I am greatly looking forward to his Monday speech about “The Clinton’s”. Should make a drinking game out of this somehow… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/387 "2016-06-08T04:42:30Z")
Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), facing a tough reelection campaign, has withdrawn his endorsement of The Donald: [http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/sen-mark-kirk-withdraws-support-for-trump/](http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/sen-mark-kirk-withdraws-support-for-trump/) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/388 "2016-06-08T06:16:22Z")
Great victory speech by Hillary tonight. I got teary when she talked about her mother near the end. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/389 "2016-06-08T07:40:30Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > \ > Sanders _might_ bolt to a third-party bid, but I think it unlikely; he’d have to know that it would ensure a Trump win, and even I don’t think he’s that egotistical and stupid. Okay, after Mr. Sanders’ speech on the 7th of June, I’m a little less sanguine. So, recalculating, with a couple of assumptions. First, obviously, that Sanders refuses to drop out. Second, that he siphons off 5% of the votes from Ms. Clinton.\* Third, that no votes are siphoned from Trump. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/5WzRk)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election \*Nader got 2.74% of the vote in 2000. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/390 "2016-06-08T12:01:22Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/5WzRk) > > \*Nader got 2.74% of the vote in 2000. Nailbiter! You have Clinton winning, but just barely. I like your map. My map would be different thus (relying on instinct, here, not polls): Trump gets Michigan and New Hampshire, while Clinton gets Florida and Arizona. The squeaker is Wisconsin – it all comes down to that state, where the winner will win by less than a thousand votes. Iowa and Virginia will also be tight toss-ups. (I actually think Clinron will beat Trump pretty handily, but if it’s close, I see it being close more or less in the way I’ve just outlined) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/391 "2016-06-08T12:08:03Z")
With my scenario, Trump could win Iowa and Virginia (but lose Wisconsin), or win Iowa and Wisconsin (but lose Virginia), and he’d still lose. The only 2-out-of-3 situation where Trump wins if if he takes Virginia and Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/392 "2016-06-08T12:22:48Z")
I’ll swap Iowa for Colorado and Ohio and Florida are close. I don’t see Colorado going red since it’s gone blue twice and since then they have gone green, and considering the federal precariousness of weed I don’t see them going red. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/393 "2016-06-08T13:53:16Z")
Yeah, it’s interesting to see a scenario where someone gets exactly 270, but I don’t see CO going red while IA goes blue. I also think FL is likely in the bag for the Democrats this time, as they have had a \*huge \*increase in their Latino population just since 2012. ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/394 "2016-06-08T14:29:15Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Yeah, it’s interesting to see a scenario where someone gets exactly 270, but I don’t see CO going red while IA goes blue. I also think FL is likely in the bag for the Democrats this time, as they have had a \*huge \*increase in their Latino population just since 2012. There hasn’t been an election since the change in relations with Cuba, so we don’t know the effects that will have. I worry that that is going to hurt Democrats with the Cuban population. Don’t assume that Mexicans and Cubans are allies just because they both speak Spanish. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/395 "2016-06-08T14:40:51Z")
Younger Cuban-Americans are [much less Republican](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/24/after-decades-of-gop-support-cubans-shifting-toward-the-democratic-party/) than they used to be. More from [another Pew report:](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/09/democratic-edge-in-hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/) > [@](#): > > Among all Floridians, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in 2016. This is due in part to Hispanics, who accounted for 88% of growth in the number of registered Democrats between 2006 and 2016. During this time, the number of Hispanic registered voters increased by 61%, while the number of Hispanics identifying as Democrats increased by 83% and those having no party affiliation increased by 95%. The number of Hispanic Republican registered voters has grown too – but much more slowly (just 16%).[…] > > What’s behind these changes? On the one hand, the demographics of the state’s Hispanic population are growing more diverse. In 2014, Cubans made up a smaller share (31%) of Hispanic eligible voters – adult U.S. citizens – in Florida than they did in 1990 (46%). Meanwhile, over the same period, Puerto Ricans made up a larger share of the state’s Hispanic eligible voters, rising from 25% to 27%. These changes have been driven by the outmigration of Puerto Ricans from the island to central Florida and the movement of Puerto Rican-origin Hispanics in the northeast U.S. to central Florida. The share of Hispanic eligible voters of other ancestry (such as Mexico and South America) has also increased, from 29% then to 42% today. > > On the other, Cuban Americans and their politics are also changing. This group increasingly leans toward the Democratic Party as more are born in the U.S. In addition, due to an influx of Cuban immigrants since 1990, a sizable majority of Cuban Americans today say they have at least some common values with people living in Cuba. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/396 "2016-06-08T14:58:39Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > …I also think FL is likely in the bag for the Democrats this time, as they have had a \*huge \*increase in their Latino population just since 2012. You misspelled “yuuuuge.” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/397 "2016-06-09T15:03:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The polling doesn’t actually support a Clinton surge. … Today’s Rasmussen is Clinton +4. Last two weeks before had Clinton +1. Week before that Trump +5. “Surge” is an overstatement but “trend” from a bottoming out middle of last month with a change of 9 points Clintonward in the same house (one with an identified GOP lean), about the same change over three to four weeks that the Reuters/Ipsos method reported? Yeah. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/398 "2016-06-09T15:18:51Z")
Oh. [Links help.](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch) Sorry. > [@](#): > > The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch survey shows Clinton taking a four-point lead over Trump – 42% to 38% - among Likely U.S. Voters. Fifteen percent (15%) still prefer some other candidate, while five percent (5%) remain undecided. … Trump had his best showing a month ago, leading Clinton 42% to 37%. The latest finding is Clinton’s high to date. … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/399 "2016-06-09T15:55:20Z")
An then one has to remember how Rassmusen is a bit biased in favor of the Republicans and then looking at other polls I have to say that the trend should be in reality much better for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/400 "2016-06-09T16:00:31Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > 1. If you were to go back and read for comprehension you would discover I said people opposed to the fact sex is everywhere in today’s society are mocked as “squares”, not people opposed to underage sex. Nobody today is mocked as a “square” because nobody today uses that word, a point you missed. If you don’t know how people speak, how do you know what they’re saying? ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/401 "2016-06-09T16:07:15Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Today’s Rasmussen is Clinton +4. Last two weeks before had Clinton +1. Week before that Trump +5. > > “Surge” is an overstatement but “trend” from a bottoming out middle of last month with a change of 9 points Clintonward in the same house (one with an identified GOP lean), about the same change over three to four weeks that the Reuters/Ipsos method reported? Yeah. I like that trend. I also think Trump’s comments about the “Mexican judge” (who was born in Indiana) truly had a negative effect on him. He’s made outrageous statements before, but this one seemed different imo. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989.md?page=21)