# Trump vs Clinton in the General Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 17, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989 "2016-05-17T13:19:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2016, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/702 "2016-06-17T15:42:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If that last 39-29 poll holds up, there’s just no reason to vote for Clinton if you don’t want. Let her get her sub-40 plurality. 😕 I assume that includes undecided voters. Anyone who actually turns up on Election Day is by definition decided. Unless Johnson, Stein, and those that are even more unknown pull in 32%, the actual vote won’t be 39 to 29. I doubt Johnson and Stein and the rest of the field will get 32%. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2016, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/703 "2016-06-17T18:35:18Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > 😕 I assume that includes undecided voters. Anyone who actually turns up on Election Day is by definition decided. Unless Johnson, Stein, and those that are even more unknown pull in 32%, the actual vote won’t be 39 to 29. I doubt Johnson and Stein and the rest of the field will get 32%. excellent point. Even in two way polls, the numbers rarely add up to 100, and rarely these days are candidates over 50% in national head to head polls, even in the 2012 and 2008 elections. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2016, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/704 "2016-06-17T20:55:01Z")
Love the patented [NYT dry archness](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-chappaqua.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article) here: > [@](#): > > Mr. Nadler’s 17-year-old son, Stephen, the youngest of their three children, remains the home’s chief Trump skeptic. > > “I find it hard to believe the side that says he’s very intelligent,” he said from the front seat recently, with his father driving. > > “He has a 156 I.Q.!” Mr. Nadler shot back. His source was not immediately clear. This guy quite pathetically styles himself as a kindred spirit to Drumpf, so naturally his source is that he pulled it out of his ass like Drumpf does. Or maybe he “read it on the Internet”. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/705 "2016-06-18T02:04:48Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > 😕 I assume that includes undecided voters. Anyone who actually turns up on Election Day is by definition decided. Unless Johnson, Stein, and those that are even more unknown pull in 32%, the actual vote won’t be 39 to 29. I doubt Johnson and Stein and the rest of the field will get 32%. Obviously it won’t turn out that way, but if we assume people are undecided because they don’t like either candidate, then there’s nothing inherently wrong with those voters voting third party. Given the almost universal name recognition of both candidates, it’s very unlikely that any of those 32% actually want to vote for either of them. And as long as Clinton maintains a 10 point lead, there’s no harm in that 32% going for Johnson or Stein. Would actually do a lot of good. Democrats get their President and progressives(as well as Never Trump conservatives) get to send a very loud message. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2016, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/706 "2016-06-20T21:53:04Z")
Interesting things buried in the crosstabs of polls. Today’s [Monmouth](http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/568faad2-81ab-4bd0-b373-8577326e76bd.pdf) for example … Clinton-Trump RVs being Clinton +7 and +8 among LVs, with Johnson and Stein as option moving to Clinton +6 and +7 RV and LV respectively … all well and good. But in the tabs one sees that they pooled some data from “swing states” (defined by being within 7% in 2012 so CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI) and not only is it Clinton +8 in the two-way among RVs but 50% of those swing state RVs say it is “very important” to make sure that Donald Trump does NOT get elected president. Oh Clinton is disliked by lots too, but it is a relatively mild 38% of swing state RVs who say that “very important” about her. … Wow. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/707 "2016-06-22T01:02:05Z")
But then today’s state polls by Qunnipiac show _some_ swing states as more competitive than the national numbers would suggest. Figure national numbers are converging on Clinton +6. In 2012 Ohio was the national number -0.5 Obama, PA was national number +2.5 Obama, FL national number -2. FL is more Clintonward at even with current national instead of -2 (looking at both third parties included as options) -3 off the national number instead of +2.5, and OH is -4 instead of -0.5 ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989/708 "2016-11-09T07:23:53Z")
> [@Belowjob2.0](#): > > Trump already owns the issue, based on his previous inflammatory statements. No way Hilary can do anything but play catch up, and even there, she can’t make the kind of forceful, inflammatory statements Trump makes routinely. > > Trump has just won Florida for the general. > > He’ll win Ohio, PA, VA, and NC too, of course. That’s all he needs. :smack::smack::smack: ☹ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-clinton-in-the-general-election/754989.md?page=35)