# Trump vs Sanders looks awfully probable (over a year out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 18, 2015, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146 "2015-08-18T04:11:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/21 "2015-08-18T17:18:49Z")
I think you are overestimating the effect of money. Certainly it makes a difference, but history is fully of candidates with large bankrolls losing to insurgents. I honestly don’t know how to read Fiorina yet. She did very well in her debate, continues to do well in interviews, but she has HP hanging over for, both for good and bad. But you’re right that she’s still down in single digits after being almost universally declared the winner of the debates, so obviously there’s some negative reaction to her from the voters. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/22 "2015-08-18T17:28:26Z")
Biden shares one big problem with Sanders: he’s old. He would be 73 when sworn in as President. Reagan was 69 and that was a major campaign issue. There’s also the fact that he’s kind of a buffoon with a terminal case of foot-in-mouth disease. I think he’d have a hard time winning the election unless the Republicans put up Trump or some other idiot (entirely possible). The Republicans usually flirt with extreme candidates at this point in the election, but they almost always settle down and vote for the mainstream establishment. This could very well be a different year, though. All around the world you’re seeing established orders being upset, and the establishment is running scared in a lot of places. Expect the unexpected - from both the Democrats and Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/23 "2015-08-18T17:41:20Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Biden shares one big problem with Sanders: he’s old. He would be 73 when sworn in as President. Reagan was 69 and that was a major campaign issue. There’s also the fact that he’s kind of a buffoon with a terminal case of foot-in-mouth disease. I think he’d have a hard time winning the election unless the Republicans put up Trump or some other idiot (entirely possible). Biden is playing an interesting role here. Obama has to remain totally neutral until Joe makes up his mind. He probably wouldn’t make a formal endorsement during the primaries anyway, but he can’t even appear to favor anyone if Biden is still a possibility. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/24 "2015-08-18T17:44:13Z")
What makes _anyone_ think Biden is considering it? Just the fact that it’s August, things are slow, and the pundits need something to talk about? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/25 "2015-08-18T17:48:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > What makes _anyone_ think Biden is considering it? Just the fact that it’s August, things are slow, and the pundits need something to talk about? He has no reason to say no yet. And he’s the runner-up in the beauty contest. If for any reason Hillary is unable to fulfill her reign as the establishment candidate… ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/26 "2015-08-18T17:56:22Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I honestly don’t know how to read Fiorina yet. She did very well in her debate, continues to do well in interviews, but she has HP hanging over for, both for good and bad. But you’re right that she’s still down in single digits after being almost universally declared the winner of the debates, so obviously there’s some negative reaction to her from the voters. She has two major high profile losses (HP and her Senate campaign) which are offset by exactly zero wins. Her campaigning is a one-trick pony of negativity towards Clinton. She’s not hard to read, and she has no chance. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/27 "2015-08-18T17:56:49Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > He has no reason to say no yet. If he had any interest at all, don’t you think he’d have done something by now? > [@](#): > > And he’s the runner-up in the beauty contest. When did he enter it? > [@](#): > > If for any reason Hillary is unable to fulfill her reign as the establishment candidate… Wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/28 "2015-08-18T17:58:44Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Fiorina… being almost universally declared the winner of the debates In what media? Trump went in ahead and came out ahead, with all the buzz, too. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/29 "2015-08-18T17:59:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I really don’t see a path for Bernie to win the Dem nomination. … Hillary could die. Is there any history on how many presidential candidates have died while running for office? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/30 "2015-08-18T18:32:19Z")
Trump’s getting around 20-25% in the poll numbers and leading. It looks impressive but that means a substantial majority prefer someone else as a number one choice. It really comes down to whether he’s a high ranked choice for the other candidate’s voters when they drop. It doesn’t look like he is. He’s still below water on favorability ([cite](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating)) The majority of republican voters view him unfavorably. In IA [55% of Republican voters](http://www.suffolk.edu/news/60760.php) that watched the debate said they were less comfortable with him after the debate. His yougov net favorability [dropped 14 points](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-post-debate-losers-walker-and-winners-fiorina/) after the debate. After a period where his favorability was on the way up the debate started to push it the other way. Some of the analysis I’ve seen (minus cite) tends to tie his supporters to groups that don’t traditionally have high primary turnout. Unless he can get out the vote that’s a recipe for underperforming the polls. That’s before we even consider the effect of unpledged RNC establishment delegates on the selection. He likely doesn’t get many of them so he needs even stronger wins for the primary awarded delegates. 25% of delegates don’t get him a nomination. He’s going to have a tough time expanding outside his current supporters though. He certainly can’t afford many more debates like the last one. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/31 "2015-08-18T19:28:15Z")
The bigger concern is that the total support for the craziest and nastiest of them added together does form a solid majority. The candidates running as sane and responsible (whether their records support that or not) are \*losing \*support, or have never had much. The nominee is going to be the one who can best coalesce all of that support - IOW the party’s base - into a single candidacy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/32 "2015-08-18T19:32:00Z")
The bigger concern is that Americans are so tired of being lied to and government being unaccountable that they are close to rejecting anyone associated with the establishment. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/33 "2015-08-18T19:47:31Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > If he had any interest at all, don’t you think he’d have done something by now? He is doing something. He’s saying he hasn’t decided yet. > [@](#): > > When did he enter it? When Obama was elected with him as VP. The VP is the presumed nominee for the incumbent party. He’s only the runner up because he hasn’t announced. If he announces he’ll be in 3rd place. Which is a very sad thing to say about O’Malley, Chafee, and Webb. > [@](#): > > Wishful thinking. I wish for better stuff than that. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/34 "2015-08-18T19:53:35Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > He is doing something. He’s saying he hasn’t decided yet. C’mon now. > [@](#): > > When Obama was elected with him as VP. The VP is the presumed nominee for the incumbent party. Only if he wants to be. You’re having to invent fantasy scenarios because of the absolute lack of any evidence of any interest on Biden’s part. > [@](#): > > I wish for better stuff than that. How about less wishing, then? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/35 "2015-08-18T20:07:31Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > You’re having to invent fantasy scenarios because of the absolute lack of any evidence of any interest on Biden’s part. I mentioned his interesting position in being able to hold up Obama’s endorsement. I didn’t say he was interested in running, or doing anything else. However he definitely has not said that he is out of the race. And he’s part of the dynamic until that happens. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/36 "2015-08-18T20:12:21Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I mentioned his interesting position in being able to hold up Obama’s endorsement. Sitting presidents do not endorse primary candidates. > [@](#): > > I didn’t say he was interested in running, or doing anything else. Yes, I know, it’s Anybody But Hillary. You could just leave it at that. > [@](#): > > However he definitely has not said that he is out of the race. And he’s part of the dynamic until that happens. What dynamic? The one of your hopes and dreams? Or the one of real shoe-leather politics? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/37 "2015-08-18T20:23:21Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Sitting presidents do not endorse primary candidates. They generally won’t formally endorse anyone in the primaries, but they can make it known what they think. Obama has been playing it cool, Hillary’s been begging for a handout. > [@](#): > > Yes, I know, it’s Anybody But Hillary. You could just leave it at that. I’m not the one who has Hillary in my obsessions. > [@](#): > > What dynamic? The one of your hopes and dreams? Or the one of real shoe-leather politics? This is shoe-leather politics. Either the Clinton campaign is dealing with these issues on a daily or they will lose. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/38 "2015-08-18T20:26:10Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > FWIW, right now (OK, as of last week), Nate Silver’s [early odds](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/) are on Hillary vs Bush or Walker (or possibly Rubio). Trump is a 2% chance. That’s dated August 5, actually, which is pretty significant since that was a day before the Fox News debate. Here’s one of the comments from your link: > [@](#): > > **Harry Enten:** We’ve had this show before — we’ve seen it. In 2011, we saw these candidates rise and fall: Cain, Perry, Bachmann. And their bumps lasted a month or a month and a half. And we’re only a month into this Trump thing. By this weekend, it’ll be two months since the first poll that had Trump in double digits. So by Enten’s own analysis, we _haven’t_ had this show before. Nate Silver says even if Trump’s support stays over 20% all the way through Iowa, we actually _have_ seen this before: > [@](#): > > \*\*Nate Silver: \*\*So far he’s on that Cain/Gingrich trajectory. But look, it’s entirely possible that he’ll hold on to 20 or 25 percent of the vote through Iowa. Pat Buchanan did, Steve Forbes did. That’s the optimist’s case for Trump. But then what happens is that the rest of the field starts to consolidate. And you can’t win with only 25 percent of the vote. Especially when the rest of your party wants to make sure you are not the GOP nominee. That last sentence is already outdated, of course, not in terms of it being true, but in terms of the degree to which it _matters_. Fox News, which is a bigger player than the GOP itself at this point, tried to kill him off, and we’ve seen how well that worked. But “Pat Buchanan did, Steve Forbes did.” I say, so what? Buchanan and Forbes were basically pulling in the protest vote from people who wanted to say they were less than thrilled with Bush Sr. and Dole, who were going to win the GOP nomination in 1992 and 1996, respectively, no matter what. Comparing that with a real, up-for-grabs race is like comparing apples with begonias. That comparison wasn’t one of Nate’s finest moments. And while I’ve already addressed the consolidation assumption above, (a) I’ll note that McGovern was able to win the Dem nomination in 1972 with 25% of the vote in the absence of a single strong opponent, and (b) if there’s a consolidation, who consolidates with whom, and who comes out ahead? If you combine the support for the ‘moderate by GOP standards’ candidates (Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Christie) you get 25.6%, per RCP’s current averages. If you think that Walker’s support would also join that coalition (I’m skeptical, to say the least, you’re up to 33.3%. Toss in Rand Paul (whose dad never dropped out, so again, skeptical here), and you’re up to 37.8%. Meanwhile, if Trump gets Cruz’ and Huckabee’s supporters when they drop out, that pushes him up to 33.6%. And if he picks up _half_ of Walker’s and Fiorina’s supporters, that pushes him up to 40.6%. Give him 1/3 of Carson’s support, and he’s up to 44%, which may not be a majority, but it could easily be a commanding plurality. At this point, to save the anti-Trump, whoever it may be, you’ve got to assume the 15-20% of GOP voters who don’t indicate a preference in recent polls go heavily for the anti-Trump when the primaries come around. Now that doesn’t mean I think Trump is the odds-on favorite for the nomination. If it’s an even bet on Trump against the field, I’ll take the field. But I’d say the same for any other candidate. But if someone says Trump has only a 4% chance of winning, my attitude is, “where can I get a bet down on Trump at those odds?” Basically, I think Trump has a plausible chance of winning the nomination. I’d say he’s got a better chance than anyone besides Jeb, Rubio, Walker, and maybe Cruz. (Of course, that isn’t saying much: as I go down the rest of the list, the only remaining name I regard as merely a longshot, rather than someone with zero chance, is Kasich.) It’ll probably be one of those other guys in the end, but I’d give Trump at least a 10% chance of winning the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/39 "2015-08-18T20:40:49Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > Trump’s getting around 20-25% in the poll numbers and leading. It looks impressive but that means a substantial majority prefer someone else as a number one choice. Latest CNN poll shows 24% for Trump as first choice and, importantly, 14% for Trump as second choice. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/40 "2015-08-18T21:00:02Z")
Who does Trump gain votes from, other that the other two “non-politicians”, Fiorino and Carson? Trump will not be the nominee for one simple reason. The people who run the Republican party would rather lose a single election, even to the hated Hillary, than permanently lose their control of the party. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146.md?page=3)