# Trump vs Sanders looks awfully probable (over a year out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 18, 2015, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146 "2015-08-18T04:11:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/41 "2015-08-18T21:14:48Z")
It might already be too late for that. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/42 "2015-08-18T21:25:29Z")
Trump is the candidate who attracts the following voter: A person who is MAD AS HELL at ‘Washington’, who blames all his woes on those foreigners coming in to take all the jobs, and who wants someone who will go in there and ‘kick ass’ and finally show those establishment types who’s boss. These aren’t all Republicans, btw. Trump could pull in a lot of ‘Reagan Democrats’ - blue collar union workers, etc. This is virtually identical to the Pat Buchanan coalition, which in turn was made up of the old Ross Perot Reform party types. In fact, you could say that Donald Trump is a super-sized Ross Perot. He’s an old-style populist banging his fist and promising to be the ‘voice of the people’ and who will stand up to ‘special interests’ and put a chicken in every pot if only people give him the power to do so. We’ve seen his type before, on both the right and the left. And sometimes they even win. But usually they just agitate their core constituents and spout off until they say or do something so stupid or outrageous that eventually they just have to go away. Ross Perot did really well - right up until the point where he claimed Republican secret operatives were sabotaging his daughter’s wedding. Then people went, YOU TELL THEM ROSS! WE… uh, wait. What did you just say!!! Oh, God…" I think the likeliest scenario is that at some point Trump will flame out, but his ego won’t let him walk away. So he’ll start a 3rd party and pull enough votes from the Republicans that the Democrats will win by default. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/43 "2015-08-18T22:35:17Z")
I like the premise of this thread. BOTH parties hijacked because they couldn’t produce “real” candidates from their own ranks. People of “presidential” bearing, at any rate. Neither Sanders nor Trump are clearly The One, but they both resonate in their own ways with the folks in ways Hillary & Jeb just don’t. Jesus, what if Trump DOES get it. And what if he actually does a good job? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/44 "2015-08-18T22:59:21Z")
Populist nonsense always gets people stirred up in the beginning. The devil is in the details, as in “How da fuck is he gonna pay for all that?” Sanders can probably trot out details, but getting them past Congress is doubtful. Trump’s answer to almost everything is “Trust me.” No thanks. I doubt that the country really wants another four or eight years of government gridlock. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/45 "2015-08-19T00:19:56Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I think you are overestimating the effect of money. Certainly it makes a difference, but history is fully of candidates with large bankrolls losing to insurgents. You’re looking at the wrong question. We’re talking about _consolidation_ as a means to winning, not _money_ as a means to winning. The role of money is (potentially) that of keeping losing candidates in the race longer, depending on the willingness of the candidates’ billionaire sugar daddies to keep on funding candidates that are running behind, thus preventing or at least delaying consolidation. > [@](#): > > I honestly don’t know how to read Fiorina yet. What **Do Not Taunt** said. > [@](#): > > But you’re right that she’s still down in single digits after being almost universally declared the winner of the debates, so obviously there’s some negative reaction to her from the voters. Maybe the network and newspaper pundits who declared her the winner are extremely well-off people who mostly talk to each other, and aren’t particularly in touch with what the voters think. But voter reaction has been positive enough to lift her from 1% throughout July to 5% in the latest Fox News and CNN polls. It’s hard to describe that as a negative reaction, even if you think she should be sailing even higher, due to how the pundits rated her performance at the kiddie table. You may be overestimating the effect of pundits. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/46 "2015-08-19T00:23:07Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > The devil is in the details, as in “How da fuck is he gonna pay for all that?” If people really voted on “How da fuck is he gonna pay for all that?” then Carter would have been a two-term President, and Gore would have handily beaten Shrub. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/47 "2015-08-19T00:26:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d be thrilled with that result, actually. Sanders would win easily, but it would have the effect of giving both major parties the heave-ho. > > I’ve actually felt for a long time that the Presidency should be a non-partisan office. Sanders is liberal, but he’s got no particular allegiance to the Democratic Party and I don’t think he’d govern with their electoral needs in mind. Trump, should he somehow win, I know he wouldn’t give a shit about Republicans. So in a Sanders vs. Trump race, neither major party would really control the White House anymore. Which would be problematic in the short term, since I don’t think either man would make a good President, but might teach them the value of honesty and straight talk in the long run and get us better candidates in the future. Good points. But I think Trump would be Sanders easily. Would be interesting… ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/48 "2015-08-19T00:45:18Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > But I think Trump would be Sanders easily. Fred: Our trap worked! We caught the Trump! Velma: Except it’s not the Trump, its… (pulls a rubber mask off of Trumps head) Everyone: BERNIE SANDERS! Daphne: He thought by pretending to be a monster, he could scare away all the voters, and steal the election! Shaggy: Zoinks! What a far-out plan! Sanders: And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for you kids and that darned DOG! Velma: Oh, leave Meghan Kelly alone, already! ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/49 "2015-08-19T00:54:06Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Fred: Our trap worked! We caught the Trump! > Velma: Except it’s not the Trump, its… (pulls a rubber mask off of Trumps head) > Everyone: BERNIE SANDERS! > Daphne: He thought by pretending to be a monster, he could scare away all the voters, and steal the election! > Shaggy: Zoinks! What a far-out plan! > Sanders: And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for you kids and that darned DOG! > Velma: Oh, leave Meghan Kelly alone, already! 😃 What it remains clear is that some still do not have a clue, even if we get Sanders against Trump the most recent polls shows that Sanders is likely to beat Trump by margins that are very close to what Clinton has over Trump right now. > **[2016 General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-sanders)** > > Explore poll data on the 2016 General Election between Trump and Sanders. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics with RealClearPolling. > **[2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton)** > > Explore poll data from the 2016 General Election, focusing on the Trump vs. Clinton matchup. Gain valuable insights into key trends and electoral dynamics with RealClearPolling. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/50 "2015-08-19T01:38:01Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Good points. But I think Trump would be Sanders easily. Would be interesting… Trump COULD have beaten Sanders easily, if he ran a more Ross Perot-style campaign as a very reasonable, nonideological Mr. Fixit. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/51 "2015-08-19T04:46:54Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The biggest thing Trump has going for him is that there are 15 other people splitting the non-Trump vote. I think Trump’s support is as high as it’s likely to get, so once the field is narrowed down someone will emerge and consolidate the vote and win the nomination. I have no idea who that will be, but the short list would include Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, Cruz and Walker. Ornament, airhead, stinky girl, Joe McCarthy, and jerk. Got it. Trump wins. Edit: Rubio is young, Bush is a Bush, Fiorina is an outsider, Cruz is unpleasant, and Walker has no foreign policy cred. Trump isn’t great, but I don’t think these guys can beat him so easily. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/52 "2015-08-19T05:04:13Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Expect the unexpected - from both the Democrats and Republicans. That’s kind of what this thread _is._ Expecting the unexpected. > [@Bone](#): > > Hillary could die. Is there any history on how many presidential candidates have died while running for office? Well, if she’s gonna kick the bucket, can she do it before the convention? If she dies after the ballots are printed, my state’s electors will probably take votes for her as votes for her husband–wait, that won’t work–daughter, who turned 35 this year. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/53 "2015-08-19T15:14:10Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Fred: Our trap worked! We caught the Trump! > Velma: Except it’s not the Trump, its… (pulls a rubber mask off of Trumps head) > Everyone: BERNIE SANDERS! > Daphne: He thought by pretending to be a monster, he could scare away all the voters, and steal the election! > Shaggy: Zoinks! What a far-out plan! > Sanders: And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for you kids and that darned DOG! > Velma: Oh, leave Meghan Kelly alone, already! Beautiful. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/54 "2015-08-19T15:36:22Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > In the highly unlikely event that he should get the nomination, the 2016 election would be such a blowout for Hillary that it would make the LBJ-Goldwater race look like a nailbiter in comparison. I know I’ve already responded to this, but new data: the [CNN-ORC pol](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf)l taken August 13-16 shows Trump losing to Hillary by 51-45 among registered voters, while Scott Walker loses by 52-46, Jeb! loses by 52-43, and Carly Fiorina loses by 53-43. (Question 28 on p.15 of the 67-page PDF.) They’re all in a pretty tight range (hell, I doubt the differences are statistically significant), and who the candidate is might matter if the economy goes south next year and the race becomes close as a result. But a poor choice of candidate is unlikely to produce anything like a Goldwater-level landslide. A 53-46 Dem win is probably as much as we libruls can hope for. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/55 "2015-08-19T16:35:12Z")
And similarly on the Dem side. In a [poll they just did in North Carolina, PPP](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html) did a bunch of trial heats in Hillary v. various GOP candidates, and also did Sanders v. various GOP candidates. Sanders averaged about 1.5% worse than Hillary against the Republicans. So again, partisan divisions have hardened to a point where the choice of candidates makes some difference around the margins, but not the difference between a close race and a blowout. They also looked at the consolidation hypothesis, by asking GOP voters to choose between Trump and various GOP alternatives, one-on-one. Rubio and Walker beat Trump by 51-43 and 50-43, respectively, while Jeb! _lost_ to Trump, 50-42. (And just to make your head explode, Carson beat Trump 59-35.) So it depends on who is left at the end - and not just the last two. Suppose Rubio, Walker, and Trump all go deep into the primaries, but everyone else has either dropped out or is drawing white-noise levels of support. It sure looks like Rubio and Walker would split that 51%. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/56 "2015-08-19T19:39:29Z")
The other thing to remember about Trump is that he’s a loose cannon. He says incredibly dumb things. Right now it doesn’t seem to hurt him much because everyone is so entertained by him and they’re enjoying the spectacle of him putting the boots to the establishment. But when it gets serious and people have to really start thinking about who they want to be President, I predict that it will take only one or two really stupid statements before he’s in real trouble. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/57 "2015-08-19T19:44:13Z")
He’s made several already. They’ve only _helped_ him. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/58 "2015-08-19T20:26:36Z")
I know. I think (hope) it’s because people just aren’t serious about the election yet, and they’re basically just choosing the guy with name recognition who seems to be getting in the face of the establishment. The Republicans seem to do this all the time. Early in the election cycle all the wingnuts get their shot at the top, but then when it comes time for actual primary season their support plummets and the Republicans pick the establishment guy. This year the establishment guy is Bush, but I don’t see him getting the nod. I thought people might be able to put his brother’s years behind them, but damn when this Bush talks he has so many of the same mannerisms and speech patterns it’s almost like he’s channelling George W. That’s not going to play well, and it’s not playing well now. No one wants another Bush in the White House - not even Republicans. If I were betting, I’d say that either Rubio or Walker are going to come out of this with the nomination, but there’s a long way to go and anything could happen. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/59 "2015-08-19T20:27:59Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The other thing to remember about Trump is that he’s a loose cannon. He says incredibly dumb things. Right now it doesn’t seem to hurt him much because everyone is so entertained by him and they’re enjoying the spectacle of him putting the boots to the establishment. But when it gets serious and people have to really start thinking about who they want to be President, I predict that it will take only one or two really stupid statements before he’s in real trouble. Yeah, I think this is right. The debate really changed my view of him. I don’t think he’s capable of switching into serious mode. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146/60 "2015-08-20T10:19:39Z")
I have a\* really\* hard time seeing Rubio with the nomination. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-sanders-looks-awfully-probable-over-a-year-out/728146.md?page=4)