# Trump vs. the US Mexico Border 2: Trump's Secret Deal with Mexico (it's in his pocket!) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 12, 2019, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402 "2019-06-12T02:55:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/21 "2019-06-12T13:26:51Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I’ll be honest: I struggled with whether or not what I saw was a comma or just speck on the paper. In the end, it looked more like a comma than a speck, so I went with it. You can see the image I used [at 1:40 into the video linked in the OP](https://youtu.be/z9n3WAVNqJI?t=100). Thanks for re-posting the link. I think it’s a blemish on the paper, but it could be an apostrophe. I think Snopes would rule “Unproven”. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/22 "2019-06-12T13:28:03Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > Thanks for re-posting the link. I think it’s a blemish on the paper, but it could be an apostrophe. I think Snopes would rule “Unproven”. 🙂 Geez, did I write “comma”? :smack: I gotta stop posting before I shower… just not awake yet. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/23 "2019-06-12T13:31:19Z")
Apostrophe or not, how about the host in the link trying to parse the last visible sentence? ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/24 "2019-06-12T14:39:34Z")
[This article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/11/post-photographer-snapped-an-image-trumps-alleged-secret-mexico-deal-heres-what-it-says/?utm_term=.014743c9b6f0) has additional transcriptions of the letter, but it doesn’t provide much more information. Except maybe this bit: > [@](#): > > It is signed by two people, that we can see, but neither of these signatures are from the countries’ respective presidents, top diplomats or ambassadors to the other country. They appear to belong to Marik A. String, acting legal adviser in the U.S. State Department, and Alejandro Celorio Alcantara, a deputy legal adviser in Mexico’s Foreign Ministry. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/25 "2019-06-12T14:54:45Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > This is why it bothers me so much that Mexico ran for the negotiating table: don’t they see that Trump is not trustworthy? Don’t they see that capitulating once means capitulating all the time? Their run for the table was like saying “Yes! We’re stupid; please fuck us over!” IMO. Mexico is in the same boat that Canada is in, though. Our economies are inextricably linked to that of the US, so we can’t just tell Trump to piss off, but we also have essentially zero input on whether or not the US electorate tells Trump to piss off. So we’ve got to find a balance when dealing with Trump: give him just enough that he thinks he’s “won”, without actually giving away the store. With this agreement, Mexico seems to have pulled the same trick Canada did with the New NAFTA: agree to something we’ve already been negotiating, and then let Trump blather on about how our agreement was all because of his “acting tough”. It’s like when a little kid punches an adult to prove how strong he is. The adult says “Ouch!” just to make the kid feel good. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/26 "2019-06-12T14:54:49Z")
**Snowboarder Bo** , that’d be a valid point, if this agreement actually constrained Mexico in any way. But if the transcriptions we’re seeing are accurate, Trump used his awesome deal-negotiating powers to convince Mexico to sign a piece of paper that officially says that Mexico doesn’t have to do anything. Why wouldn’t they want to sign that? ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/27 "2019-06-12T14:56:30Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > This is why it bothers me so much that Mexico ran for the negotiating table: don’t they see that Trump is not trustworthy? Don’t they see that capitulating once means capitulating all the time? Their run for the table was like saying “Yes! We’re stupid; please fuck us over!” IMO. It’s only capitulating if Mexico actually does anything. Suppose the Mexican ambassador or trade representative (or whoever negotiates these things) says “yes, President Trump, sir, my country will roll out our national guard to stop the migrants coming north from Central America!” Then, in private, the Mexican government does nothing. Trump gets to wave his fancy piece of paper around, so he’s happy. If Trump even remembers to follow up, it won’t matter one whit whether Mexico fulfilled their promises or not. In three months, do you think anyone will even remember to check whether there are Mexican guard troops on their southern border or not, or will Trump have changed the subject a dozen times by then? That’s Trump’s game; promise someone the world to make them happy right now, and by the time they wonder what happened you’ve got another promise to distract them with. Lather, rinse, repeat. I’d like to see someone run that game on Trump for a change. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/28 "2019-06-12T15:02:21Z")
Since I happen to have just re-read Asimov’s _Foundation_: > [@](#): > > "As you see, gentlemen, something like ninety percent of the treaty boiled right out of the analysis as being meaningless, and what we end up with can be described in the following interesting manner: > “Obligations of Anacreon to the Empire: _None_!” > “Powers of the Empire over Anacreon: _None_!” Trump just skipped over the meaningless 90%, and went straight to the half-page that says that Mexico can do whatever it wants. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/29 "2019-06-12T15:09:45Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > In three months, do you think anyone will even remember to check whether there are Mexican guard troops on their southern border or not, or will Trump have changed the subject a dozen times by then? Oh, there will be! There usually are. I mean, I guess there could be a really nasty epidemic or something, but if it manages to send every single Guardia to the hospital the border will be the least of anybody’s worries. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/30 "2019-06-12T15:15:15Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > It’s like when a little kid punches an adult to prove how strong he is. The adult says “Ouch!” just to make the kid feel good. Except this isn’t a little kid. It’s more like an adult with severe autism who’s stronger than every other person in the room (the US not Trump; but Trump is the personification of the US as POTUS, for all practical purposes). And we already know he’s unscrupulous and unswayed by things like laws and rules and social customs. I just think enabling that kind of thing, in any way, is more bad than good. > [@Chronos](#): > > **Snowboarder Bo** , that’d be a valid point, if this agreement actually constrained Mexico in any way. But if the transcriptions we’re seeing are accurate, Trump used his awesome deal-negotiating powers to convince Mexico to sign a piece of paper that officially says that Mexico doesn’t have to do anything. Why wouldn’t they want to sign that? I’m talking more about the optics of running to the table and scurrying to come to an agreement. And I mean specifically how it looks _to Trump_. Once a bully sees an opening, they go for it repeatedly. So now I expect Trump to take many opportunities to use Mexico as a target, because he now knows he can. IMO that was a bad decision by Mexico because now they’ll have to keep dealing with this idiot on his terms and at his whim. > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > It’s only capitulating if Mexico actually does anything. Suppose the Mexican ambassador or trade representative (or whoever negotiates these things) says “yes, President Trump, sir, my country will roll out our national guard to stop the migrants coming north from Central America!” Then, in private, the Mexican government does nothing. Trump gets to wave his fancy piece of paper around, so he’s happy. If Trump even remembers to follow up, it won’t matter one whit whether Mexico fulfilled their promises or not. In three months, do you think anyone will even remember to check whether there are Mexican guard troops on their southern border or not, or will Trump have changed the subject a dozen times by then? > > That’s Trump’s game; promise someone the world to make them happy right now, and by the time they wonder what happened you’ve got another promise to distract them with. Lather, rinse, repeat. I’d like to see someone run that game on Trump for a change. Trump isn’t just a drooling moron waving around apiece of paper, tho: he’s the POTUS. He can enact real consequences based on that piece of paper. For instance, do you think he will ever say that Mexico is doing an adequate job, or will he always keep the threat of that little memo alive? As I read it, the US gets to re-evaluate every 45 days if the US decides that Mexico isn’t “yet” meeting their obligations. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/31 "2019-06-12T15:19:56Z")
And if he decides they aren’t, then all that happens is that he gets to evaluate again 45 days after that. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/32 "2019-06-12T15:20:19Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > For instance, do you think he will ever say that Mexico is doing an adequate job, or will he always keep the threat of that little memo alive? As I read it, the US gets to re-evaluate every 45 days if the US decides that Mexico isn’t “yet” meeting their obligations. I suspect that Mexico figures (correctly) that Trump will forget all about this in 45 days. He will have no memory at all of this memo,or the negotiations, or even how many Mexicos there are. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/33 "2019-06-12T15:37:43Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Trump isn’t just a drooling moron waving around apiece of paper, tho: he’s the POTUS. He can enact real consequences based on that piece of paper. Trump can enact real consequences, yes. I’m saying that it doesn’t matter whether Mexico lives up to the agreement or not. They could do everything in that promise, fulfill it to the letter and the spirit, and Trump might still enact tariffs. Trump will do what Trump will do. He already negotiated one trade pact with Mexico and threatened tariffs anyway; why should this new agreement be any different? Trump goes back on his word at the drop of a hat. I see no reason why Mexico should keep their word to Trump. Say what you have to to keep him happy, and then do what you were gonna do anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/34 "2019-06-12T15:45:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And if he decides they aren’t, then all that happens is that he gets to evaluate again 45 days after that. No; he can impose his tariffs. Remember them? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/35 "2019-06-12T15:48:08Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Trump can enact real consequences, yes. I’m saying that it doesn’t matter whether Mexico lives up to the agreement or not. They could do everything in that promise, fulfill it to the letter and the spirit, and Trump might still enact tariffs. Trump will do what Trump will do. He already negotiated one trade pact with Mexico and threatened tariffs anyway; why should this new agreement be any different? Which strikes me as a good argument for NOT dealing with Trump. It does not strike me as a good reason to do his bidding. Yet Mexico seemed to scurry when Trump raised his broom, which will only encourage Trump. > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Trump goes back on his word at the drop of a hat. I see no reason why Mexico should keep their word to Trump. Say what you have to to keep him happy, and then do what you were gonna do anyway. That sounds like a terrible marriage, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/36 "2019-06-12T15:52:23Z")
Well, it’s not a marriage. It’s another country just trying wait out and placate America’s current goofball leader. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/37 "2019-06-12T16:02:17Z")
The point is that it’s a close, on-going relationship; a metaphorical marriage. I’m sorry that wasn’t clear. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/38 "2019-06-12T16:07:46Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Which strikes me as a good argument for NOT dealing with Trump. It does not strike me as a good reason to do his bidding. We don’t know if they’re going to do his bidding or not. They’ve told him they will; that’s all Trump cares about. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/39 "2019-06-12T16:08:27Z")
I got what you meant, but it’s not a metaphorical marriage. It’s more like roommates locked into a lease. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2019, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402/40 "2019-06-12T16:17:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, it’s not a marriage. It’s another country just trying wait out and placate America’s current goofball leader. Yes, this. All the actual work is being done by the guys in the back room. They all know Trump will throw his weight around whenever he gets a bee in his bonnet about something, but they also know he’ll usually forget about it, or cave in entirely, at some point. It’s all about fluffing Trump’s ego while the real work gets done. When the treaty is finally confirmed by all three countries’ legislatures, Trump’s ability to toss around tariffs at will will be limited. They just need to keep Trump in line until then. Fluffing his ego at no cost to themselves is the best option. A tactical retreat in support of a strategic win. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-vs-the-us-mexico-border-2-trumps-secret-deal-with-mexico-its-in-his-pocket/835402.md?page=3)