# Trump will not debate Biden on June 27, 2024, or thereafter either **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 5, 2024, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493 "2024-06-05T01:26:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/341 "2024-06-20T00:56:50Z")
It’s more like information apartheid. Separate realities imposed from above. In the mainstream case, “above” is objective reality, messy though it is, with some deliberate editorializing. In the RW case, “above” is Murdoch and his fellow travelers with substantially no reference to reality. Big difference. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/342 "2024-06-20T00:58:45Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > So now the surrogates are really leaning hard into this narrative that Biden was on drugs during the SOTU and will be during the debate. They are definitely afraid of Biden looking better than Trump. IMO, Fox News still doesn’t realize after nine years that they can’t wag the dog when it comes to Trump. They can see he probably won’t do well and are planting stories to try to convince him to drop out, but the man is far too stubborn and deluded to take their advice. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/343 "2024-06-20T01:53:32Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Trump could go off on some tangent about sharks, shit his pants mid-debate and confuse the moderator with Nancy Pelosi, and his numbers will suffer less than Biden’s if Joe so much as pauses too long before answering a question. And even the mainstream outlets will wring their hands so worriedly about how Biden looked, because Trump spontaneously combusting would be considered “just how he rolls, that’s not news”. And at this point in time that happening would impress many of his voters since a lot of people read “agitated” as meaning “energized”. Damn, remember back in 2016 when people were saying Trump just needed to appear like a normal person to look like he was winning a debate? Not even that any more. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/344 "2024-06-20T02:05:35Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > IMO, Fox News still doesn’t realize after nine years that they can’t wag the dog when it comes to Trump. They can see he probably won’t do well and are planting stories to try to convince him to drop out, but the man is far too stubborn and deluded to take their advice. I don’t think they are trying to wag the dog. I think they are constant contact with the Trump campaign and plant messages per Trump’s instructions. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/345 "2024-06-20T02:10:27Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > And even the mainstream outlets will wring their hands so worriedly about how Biden looked, because Trump spontaneously combusting would be considered “just how he rolls, that’s not news”. I think you are exaggerating this dynamic a wee bit as it existed in the past (e.g., it _was_ reported in the media in 2020 that Trump was not seen as performing well in the debates against Biden), but I think it is weakening more and more. Further, the whole “Biden is old” thing has been sticking with much less strength since the SOTU address. > [@](#): > > And at this point in time that happening would impress many of his voters since a lot of people read “agitated” as meaning “energized”. That’s not really how Trump seems these days. Yes, he’s crazier than ever, but he is exhibiting symptoms like paraphasia that are associated with dementia, and he looks like shit. He is manifestly unwell. > [@](#): > > Damn, remember back in 2016 when people were saying Trump just needed to appear like a normal person to look like he was winning a debate? Not even that any more. I think he _does_ need to appear as though he’s not dying, and he’s barely clearing that bar these days. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/346 "2024-06-20T02:15:11Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think they are constant contact with the Trump campaign and plant messages per Trump’s instructions. The Murochs are in a difficult position with Trump - he’s good for their ratings, but he’s also a legal liability for them. I’m honestly not sure what their agenda is at this point. ---
**Author:** ![dougrb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/76d3ee/32.png) [@dougrb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dougrb)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/347 "2024-06-20T02:26:58Z")
Fox News polls are showing Bidden ahead. MeidasTouch [https://youtu.be/JAgMSIiFuGU?t=36](https://youtu.be/JAgMSIiFuGU?t=36) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/348 "2024-06-20T02:29:14Z")
Yup, I mentioned that in my other thread too. No bueno por Trumpo. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/349 "2024-06-20T02:35:17Z")
I would not claim to know how it all works–I have no insider knowledge. But, for example, someone like Hannity is apparently in regular contact with Trump and can put out messages for him to a pretty big audience. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/350 "2024-06-20T03:42:39Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > And even the mainstream outlets will wring their hands so worriedly about how Biden looked, because Trump spontaneously combusting would be considered “just how he rolls, that’s not news”. According to a number of posters here, it is obvious that Trump has big mental issues he did not have four years ago, while Joe is fine. If so, media would be absolutely correct not to belabor the obvious (Trump is out of it) while pointing out Biden senior moments as beng surprising. I do not watch TV and plan to read the transcripts. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/351 "2024-06-20T04:49:52Z")
Okay, I’m leaning more toward Trump debating Biden than chickening out. I think Trump understands this is important and he’s afraid of losing. Claiming Biden will be hopped up on drugs is just an armor to protect his fragile ego when he loses. I wonder if Trump has learned any lessons for his last debate, since he won’t be able to interrupt Biden he can’t do the same thing he did last time. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/352 "2024-06-20T04:53:56Z")
Based on all the data points, the percentage in my head for Trump chickening out has gone down a bit but is still around 70%. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/353 "2024-06-20T05:07:09Z")
Chickening out probability started declining yesterday or maybe now, purely as a function of getting closer to June 27. I think that at 6AM ET Saturday, the odds will be below 50%, assuming no big developments. No opinion about where they are now or how far below 50% they will be, except that odds were higher last weekend. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/354 "2024-06-20T05:31:07Z")
I think the odds will _eventually_ go down as time passes, but there is still the question of what would be optimal timing for chickening out. I think the optimal timing is either Friday 6/21 or Monday 6/24. Friday is often the dumping ground for news you don’t want people to talk about since it’s before the weekend. But Friday also invites discussion on the Sunday TV news shows. Monday avoids the latter problem and is in kind of a sweet spot for Trump in that it’s close enough to Thursday 6/27 to say, “This is close to the event and inconvenient for everyone, so fuck you!” while not saying, “I am pulling out at the last minute due to cold feed and/or infirmity.” I think Tuesday is the last day in which to avoid this kind of negative speculation. The negative speculation that he is ditching out of fear will of course remain, but I don’t think Trump wants people to think that he was somehow incapacitated. I would therefore keep my percentage at 70% until Tuesday. Then the percentages would be (all as of 12:01 am on each day): Tues. 6/25: 40% Wed. 6/26: 25% Thurs. 6/27: 10% ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/355 "2024-06-20T06:57:42Z")
Semi-new data point: [Occupy Democrats video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4mv2mhr4qs) that has Maggie Haberman of the NYT says that Trump is taking debate prep seriously. However, she talks about the data point previously discussed here that two senators helped Trump prep, so it’s not totally new. I’m not sure whether this changes my percentage or not. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/356 "2024-06-20T12:02:05Z")
Orangeanus will debate Biden 100%, most likely for the cause of just reciting campaign rally points. Moderator: Mr. Trump, what is the best solution for peace in Israel/Palestine? Orangeboy: If Hunter Biden weren’t in Ukraine taking bribes from Crooked Joe, I’d have cheap, affordable property for sale in the Antarctic. You could see the alien shipwreck that crash landed in that movie from your backyard, the one with that thing that coffevd all over the place because of Pelosi beating Obama 7 times in a row! ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/357 "2024-06-20T12:44:27Z")
Apparently, Trump isn’t doing standard debate prep-he’s meeting with advisors and doing town halls. He’s never been a disciplined candidate, so that’s no surprise. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/358 "2024-06-20T12:51:19Z")
My prediction: - Trump will debate. - Trump will “lose” the debate by any conventional objective examination. - Trump will “win” the debate because the media coverage will highlight any minor gaff by Biden, and praise Trump for exceeding the rock bottom expectations. I think non-MAGA voters that actually watch the debate will be swayed towards Biden, but non-engaged voters, which is the majority of so-called independent voters, will think Trump won and be swayed towards him as a “strong leader” to Biden’s being “too old” and keeps making mental errors. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/359 "2024-06-20T13:27:58Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Orangeboy: If Hunter Biden weren’t in Ukraine taking bribes from Crooked Joe, I’d have cheap, affordable property for sale in the Antarctic. You could see the alien shipwreck that crash landed in that movie from your backyard, the one with that thing that coffevd all over the place because of Pelosi beating Obama 7 times in a row! Regular media: “Trump projected a strong, forceful image, while Biden stumbled over his words.” Rightwing media: “Trump is a God. Woke. What’s wrong with all those Democrats who worship Obama and Biden anyway? Woke.” ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2024, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493/360 "2024-06-20T14:09:39Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Apparently, Trump isn’t doing standard debate prep-he’s meeting with advisors and doing town halls. Plus, there have been several reports that these kinds of meeting aren’t actually all that focused. Trump just starts rambling on about all his usual bullshit. Maybe 10% of the time actually conveys useful information _to_ Trump, with 90% of the time it’s just Trump blathering on. And of that 10%, he’ll forget 99% of it before he makes it back to his plane. If this is his “debate prep”, it’s virtually worthless. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-not-debate-biden-on-june-27-2024-or-thereafter-either/1002493.md?page=19)