# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/181 "2024-05-31T21:55:41Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > I’m truly wondering what is going through Merchan’s mind right now. On one hand, this is a case that _clearly_ deserves some incarceration. This was a felony with 34 counts that went all the way to trial; the defendant is unrepentant; a co-conspirator got locked up; the underlying crime was very serious. First time offense, or rather first criminal conviction. The defendant is elderly: 77. The defendant could express public remorse moving forward (included for completeness, yeah I doubt it); as noted by PhillyGuy Trump could express remorse privately to his probation officer (worth nothing to me, worth little to some judges according to my cited study). Offender is running for President, Republicans are less fair minded then Democrats, so judge will consider putting his thumb on the scale for Republicans, just as Comey did. Any thing else on the list of explicit and implicit mitigating and aggravating factors? We have to include both in our judgment. My take is that you can gaslight your friends, you can gaslight your family, you can gaslight your employees, you can gaslight the voting public. But in the interest of general deterrence, you should be punished for gaslighting the law, especially when given the option of a public offering of remorse. I don’t care about the defendant’s sincerity; I care about upholding and reinforcing the standard of obedience to the law. Solomonic ruling? Probation with restrictions, with possible jail time when they are broken. Predictable outcome? More testing of lines, breaking the letter of the law once, spirit of the law afterwards. Trump doesn’t have to go to jail. The law doesn’t have to be upheld. Most of the world lives in lower or middle income countries where the powerful flout the law and resource allocation is driven by connections rather than productivity. It’s not first world, but it’s not the end of the world either. It can happen here. Over time. But not without a fight. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/182 "2024-05-31T22:10:26Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > On the other hand, it’s a sentence that will be handed down mere days before the Republican National Convention, and will have an indelible impact on the election, in some fashion. It is in no way Merchan’s fault that the Republicans want this guy to be in charge. Make better choices, Republicans. Don’t nominate a criminal and then say it’s political interference when he gets sentenced. You have other candidates you can pick who are not criminals and you’ve had plenty of time to prepare. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/183 "2024-05-31T22:31:52Z")
I still think he will not a jail sentence. He has a month to file a notice of appeal, then six months to actually appeal. That takes us till the end of the year, by which time he is president-elect. Then the appeals court has to consider the case. More delay. Then his lawyers will find some bullshit reason to appeal to SCOTUS. And six justices will find (or invent) reasons to hear the appeal. And then find (or invent) reasons to overturn the conviction. ---
**Author:** ![Tride](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tride/32/13907_2.png) [@Tride](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tride)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/184 "2024-05-31T22:36:35Z")
The sentence is not typically in abeyance during appeal? If the supremes null a state verdict then we’re done as a nation. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/185 "2024-05-31T22:45:24Z")
> [@sciurophobic](#): > > What’s the likelihood he won’t have to sit for the [pre-sentencing interview](https://www.nycourts.gov/courthelp/criminal/preSentenceReport.shtml)? I have this wonderful image of him being grilled by a woman who looks like Octavia Spencer going for a second Oscar and doesn’t put up with any of his crap. I don’t know if you didn’t that on purpose, but Octavia Spencer played a no-nonsense PO one or two recent episodes of Young Sheldon. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/M4UOPihGZLE/maxresdefault.jpg "Young Sheldon 7x10 | Meemaw's Probation Officer - Big Bang Theory Easter Egg") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4UOPihGZLE) ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/186 "2024-05-31T22:52:49Z")
I think I did. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/187 "2024-05-31T23:02:36Z")
> [@Tride](#): > > The sentence is not typically in abeyance during appeal? If the supremes null a state verdict then we’re done as a nation. This kind of statement confuses me. It will take a long time for state appeals to be exhausted. By then he’ll probably have been convicted of something else. Such a decision would just apply to the facts of that one case. Even assuming such a Supreme Court decision would be unjustified, or poorly justified, compared to the Dred Scott decision it would be relatively minor. Even compared to some of the conservative decisions of recent decades it would be minor. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/188 "2024-05-31T23:10:00Z")
If I were the judge I’d send him to jail. Not being used to sentencing people I’m not sure _how_ long I would sentence him for, but unlike most cases of house arrest, it would cost the taxpayers _less_ money to put him in jail than to deal with his inevitable violations of the terms of his self-incarceration. ---
**Author:** ![Tride](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tride/32/13907_2.png) [@Tride](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tride)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/189 "2024-05-31T23:10:47Z")
I guess I’m not understanding how a Federal court overturns a State criminal conviction? Federal pardons don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/190 "2024-05-31T23:11:16Z")
I agree. And the difference with horrible decisions like Dred Scott: this would be an absolute nullification of bedrock constitutional law that has stood for 250 years. Dred Scott was a hamfisted, hateful resolution of an unresolved matter of law. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/191 "2024-05-31T23:19:38Z")
> [@Tride](#): > > The sentence is not typically in abeyance during appeal? The order to report to prison can be stayed during appeal. That may happen or it may not. It’s not guaranteed, it’s up the appeal judge. > [@Tride](#): > > If the supremes null a state verdict then we’re done as a nation So I suspect Trump’s team are in a bit of a quandary about this. Based on their response to be immunity case I can totally see them taking the case, and staying the sentence while they do (probably more so than the NY appeals judges), but "probably\* won’t ultimately uphold his appeal. So do they try and fast track to the SCOTUS or not? Ultimately fast tracking is the last thing they want to do. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/192 "2024-05-31T23:27:18Z")
There is no federal or interstate issue for SCOTUS to resolve! ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/193 "2024-05-31T23:28:51Z")
> [@Tride](#): > > I guess I’m not understanding how a Federal court overturns a State criminal conviction? Federal pardons don’t. One possibility is violation of something guaranteed by the bill of rights. If Trump doesn’t run out of money to pay his lawyers, and Trump exhausts state-level appears, they will think of something. That does not mean the Supreme Court would agree to hear the case. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/194 "2024-05-31T23:29:53Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One possibility is violation of something guaranteed by the bill of rights. It’s not because there was none. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/195 "2024-05-31T23:31:48Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > _Law & Order_ has taught us that plea offers are made in dingy conference rooms or in hallways, away from public scrutiny. Opposing counsel will roll his or her eyes and say, “We’ll see you in court, counselor.” Or a counter-offer is made. The attorneys may or may not reach agreement. But regardless, a 4-minute trial results. > > This is textbook stuff, people. I laughed! ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/196 "2024-05-31T23:41:53Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > > [@Tride](#): > > > > The sentence is not typically in abeyance during appeal? > > The order to report to prison can be stayed during appeal. That may happen or it may not. It’s not guaranteed, it’s up the appeal judge. Sentences are _rarely_ stayed pending appeal. 99% of the time, a convicted felon appeals from prison. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/197 "2024-05-31T23:53:54Z")
Given the particulars of this case (admittedly unique from an extralegal standpoint), what would be likeliest for Trump? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/198 "2024-05-31T23:58:33Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > what would be likeliest for Trump? He isn’t likely to prevail on appeal, so he shouldn’t have his sentence stayed. And I’m certain that would be the case for anybody else. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/199 "2024-05-31T23:59:10Z")
Thanks. This will be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/200 "2024-06-01T00:19:46Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > Given the particulars of this case (admittedly unique from an extralegal standpoint), what would be likeliest for Trump? There is a thread on just [that](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-reason-is-there-to-think-trump-would-be-let-out-pending-appeal/998564). Unfortunately there is the example of [Governor McDonnell](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-reason-is-there-to-think-trump-would-be-let-out-pending-appeal/998564/62) though he had enough grounds to ultimately win his appeal [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=11)