# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/q.q.switcheroo/32/5713_2.png) [@Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Q.Q.Switcheroo)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/201 "2024-06-01T01:02:50Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > you can gaslight your friends, you can gaslight your family [Soupy Sales] “but you can’t gaslight your friend’s family!” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/202 "2024-06-01T01:20:34Z")
I am more convinced than ever, now that Trump is more convicted than ever (_snicker_), that this scumbag will be given time in the clink. Well, also based on some of the data and arguments presented by Dopers here, such as the fact that people have done time for this crime in New York, the issues surrounding remorse, the fact that he chose to go to trial, etc. One particular thing I’d like address, which I’ve seen both here and said in the media a lot, is that he won’t do time because he’s a “first-time offender.” LOL! because everyone knows that Trump is a serial criminal and is perhaps the greatest example in US history of someone thumbing their nose at justice and getting away with shit again and again. Merchan simply is not going to give Trump any slack whatsoever for his “first-time offender” status. I actually think Trump is going to do more time than I thought previously: one year is my guess with probation to follow. I think Merchan will cite Trump’s consistent misbehavior and violations of the gag order, etc., as a reason to send him to jail instead of imposing house arrest (i.e., Trump would definitely violate the terms, and ain’t nobody got time for that). ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/203 "2024-06-01T01:32:24Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > LOL! because everyone knows that Trump is a serial criminal and is perhaps the greatest example in US history of someone thumbing their nose at justice and getting away with shit again and again. Merchan simply is not going to give Trump any slack whatsoever for his “first-time offender” status. Merchan is certainly human, but he strikes me as being very able to follow the protocol that says a crime is considered only after that person has had his day in court. I do agree that Merchan knows full well that Trump is a vile person who considers himself above the law. But he strikes me as someone who adheres to the idea that “geez, everybody knows that” is not foundation enough to impact his decision. BUT!…I hope you’re right. I guess I’m at least a bit of a “rule of law” hypocrite. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/204 "2024-06-01T01:34:05Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Except Trump really really cares about not going to prison. If his lawyers convince him it might make a difference I can see him suddenly changing his tune. I don’t think a “sudden change of tune” is going to be very convincing to the court, given the crap he has spewed for months. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/205 "2024-06-01T01:56:38Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I don’t think a “sudden change of tune” is going to be very convincing to the court, given the crap he has spewed for months I don’t think anything before the verdict would count? I mean you can’t fault someone for claiming innocent during their trial, even if they do so in a spectacularly dickish contemptuous way. Yeah I don’t think suddenly shutting his mouth will make a massive difference, but presumably getting out of the interview and then immediately seeing Trump being exceptionally non-contrite on CNN is not going to impress his parole officer ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/206 "2024-06-01T01:59:44Z")
I give him zero percent chance at success in that interview. He will come out of it much, much worse off than when he went in. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/207 "2024-06-01T02:06:59Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > give him zero percent chance at success in that interview. He will come out of it much, much worse off than when he went in I dunno I’m not so sure. I mean he’s not going to ace it and leave his interviewer in tears. But presumably its based on facts not vibes? He can be coached as to what factual answers he needs to give to show that he is contrite and ever so sorry for his crimes? Even if it’s all spectacularly unbelievable. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/208 "2024-06-01T02:10:17Z")
There is always the probability that the interviewer is seasoned enough to recognize coached answers when they see them. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/209 "2024-06-01T02:32:44Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > There is always the probability that the interviewer is seasoned enough to recognize coached answers when they see them Though will that matter? I mean it will be obvious to every human on the planet that he is being insincere, but unless there is evidence he’s lying is that enough? Of course the globally televised press conferences and social media posts will help there ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/210 "2024-06-01T02:55:22Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > I don’t think anything before the verdict would count? How about all the bullshit after the verdict? ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/211 "2024-06-01T03:02:30Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > How about all the bullshit after the verdict? Yup see above ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/212 "2024-06-01T03:12:14Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > presumably getting out of the interview and then immediately seeing Trump being exceptionally non-contrite on CNN is not going to impress his parole officer Even worse, he’ll almost certainly call out the interviewer on social media. It’s just a question of where he’ll land on the scale from dog whistle to doxxing the person while openly calling for his minions to take action. Imagine having a 20 minute chat with him and getting death threats later that day. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/213 "2024-06-01T03:46:03Z")
I suspect if Trump keeps fucking around he’s gonna find out. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/214 "2024-06-01T03:55:23Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > There is no federal or interstate issue for SCOTUS to resolve There was no immunity issue (by any sane definition of it) for them to resolve either but it didn’t stop them taking the case. As with the immunity issue I can see SCOTUS taking the appeal, and staying the sentence until the appeal is complete. But they won’t ultimately find for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/215 "2024-06-01T04:37:18Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > But [Merchan] strikes me as someone who adheres to the idea that “geez, everybody knows that” is not foundation enough to impact his decision. > > BUT!…I hope you’re right. I guess I’m at least a bit of a “rule of law” hypocrite. I’m a fan of the rule of law as well. I would not want Trump arbitrarily thrown in prison. BUT, if Merchan can _plausibly_ put Trump in prison for a _plausible_ amount of time, I think he will do so. To state it in reverse, I don’t think he will go ultra-easy on this scum just to demonstrate that he isn’t “political.” ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/216 "2024-06-01T05:44:40Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > There is no federal or interstate issue for SCOTUS to resolve! I have zero doubt Alito would happily entertain some bullshit equal-protection type Constitutional argument that provides even a tenuous path to freeing Trump. Just off the top of my head, “the felony enhancement of what are normally misdemeanor crimes is used preferentially to persecute rich people” or “the order by the judge allowing each person in the jury to individually imagine any crime he or she wants to justify that enhancement, with no unanimity, deprived the defendant of a fair trial.” I can easily imagine the argle-bargle Alito would use to support these views and let Trump off the hook. The only unknown is the amount of effort required for him to drag the other Republican justices along with him. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/217 "2024-06-01T06:51:25Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > The only unknown is the amount of effort required for him to drag the other Republican justices along with him. There is zero chance of this happening. Zero. Take note of me saying this if you must but this just isn’t going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/218 "2024-06-01T10:07:53Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > There was no immunity issue (by any sane definition of it) for them to resolve either but it didn’t stop them taking the case. I agree that SCOTUS should have denied cert. But the immunity question is, in fact, an issue of first impression for federal crimes. It’s legitimately within their purview. Any federal appeal court accepting a motion on this particular case is overturning centuries-old foundational law. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/219 "2024-06-01T14:24:12Z")
If Trump is sentenced to prison, isn’t it likely that the relevant authorities will keep him as far away from other prisoners as possible, for his own personal safety? And isn’t that likely to mean that he is sent to a special facility rather than an ordinary prison? ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/220 "2024-06-01T14:28:43Z")
Why would a special facility be needed? The prison system is perfectly used to dealing with prisoners who can’t be allowed near other prisoners (Mafia informants, convicted cops, etc) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=12)