# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/221 "2024-06-01T14:30:39Z")
Even the most carefully guarded prisoners are vulnerable to violence from other prisoners. Protecting presidents is a big deal, which is why we have an entire federal law enforcement agency dedicated specifically to it. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/222 "2024-06-01T14:42:51Z")
There are plenty of prisoners for whom meeting another prisons would be death sentence, far more so than trump (ask Trump’s buddy Sammy the Bull about that) Even if special accomodations are required for the secret service that would surely entail a higher security prison not a lower security one. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/223 "2024-06-01T16:47:21Z")
My utterly uniformed gut instinct is that Merchan might give Trump a token jail sentence. Not enough to make it impossible for him to run for president, (in order to avoid the impression that it was a Biden plot to eliminate a rival) but enough that he gets it nailed into his thick skull that his illegal actions have consequences. If that is the case, then just for irony’s sake I would like Mercha to say to Trump. “I’m sending you to jail, but I’m gonna let you out in **two-weeks**.” ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/224 "2024-06-01T17:41:47Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > If that is the case, then just for irony’s sake I would like Mercha to say to Trump. “I’m sending you to jail, but I’m gonna let you out in **two-weeks**.” That would be perfect. And then, two weeks later when Trump’s attorneys ask why he wasn’t freed, he’d say, “I never said two weeks. I said some time soon. Fake news!” ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/225 "2024-06-01T20:36:51Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > I think a one-year (or longer) sentence would be _extremely_ damaging to Trump in all ways, assuming he’s not allowed to be out on appeal, > [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > I still think he will not a jail sentence. He has a month to file a notice of appeal, then six months to actually appeal. You dont get to go free just because you filed an appeal. > [@Moriarty](#): > > Sentences are _rarely_ stayed pending appeal. 99% of the time, a convicted felon appeals from prison. Right. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > Given the particulars of this case (admittedly unique from an extralegal standpoint), what would be likeliest for Trump? 4 years- most suspended. Some supervised release. Maybe some period of house arrest. Here is what happened to Martha Stewart - 1st time, senior citizen, white collar crime- per wiki- _After a highly publicized six-week jury trial, Stewart was found guilty in March 2004 of [felony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony) charges of conspiracy to obstruct, of obstruction of an agency proceeding, and of [making false statements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Making_false_statements) to federal investigators and was sentenced in July 2004 to serve a five-month term in a federal correctional facility and a two-year period of [supervised release](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervised_release) (including five months of [electronic monitoring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_monitoring)).[[56]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Stewart#cite_note-CNN_All_Charges-56)_ I would expect most likely that the term would be house arrest. But the cases are somethat similar. > [@Aeschines](#): > > One particular thing I’d like address, which I’ve seen both here and said in the media a lot, is that he won’t do time because he’s a “first-time offender.” So was Martha. But theoretically this could call for 30+ 4 year prison sentences- _that_ will not happen. > [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Even the most carefully guarded prisoners are vulnerable to violence from other prisoners. Protecting presidents is a big deal, which is why we have an entire federal law enforcement agency dedicated specifically to it. Yes, in another thread I quoted a senior but retired Secret Service agent who said actual prison would be “too problematic”. But hell, supervised close house arrest with no phone and no internet _could_ occur instead- and that would be just as bad… or good depending on how you look at it. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/226 "2024-06-01T20:52:37Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > The prison system is perfectly used to dealing with prisoners who can’t be allowed near other prisoners (Mafia informants, convicted cops, etc) Also, a number of other democracies have had former national leaders imprisoned, and I have not come across evidence they either had bodyguards in lockup or suffered serious injury (although I might be missing some minor dust up.) I’m afraid the difference here is what’s sometimes called the imperial presidency. POTUS unfortunately combines the jobs of prime minister, king, and emperor. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/227 "2024-06-01T20:58:16Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > 4 years- most suspended. For what-Good behavior? Contrition? His tendency to follow rules laid out by the court? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/228 "2024-06-01T21:02:26Z")
Judge Merchant would be wise to weigh mitigating factors (defendant’s age) with aggravating factors (although this is his first criminal conviction, he has been found in other civil court to have defrauded and defamed people, so this is not an isolated incident) when deciding his sentence. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/229 "2024-06-01T21:03:54Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > For what-Good behavior? > Contrition? > His tendency to follow rules laid out by the court? White collar crime, no priors, elderly, poor health. The Judge is determined to treat trump like any other person. It would be so unusual to get 30+ four year consecutive terms that that would be certainly overturned on appeal. The Judge will keep the sentence within historical parameters. Like maybe what Martha Stewart got. Anyway, this is what I predict. If _you_ want to predict 30+ four year consecutive terms - they please do. But somehow I have missed _your_ post here in this thread when you gave _your_ opinion about the sentence- can you tell me the post number so i can look at it? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/230 "2024-06-01T21:11:07Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Even the most carefully guarded prisoners are vulnerable to violence from other prisoners. I question that. It seems to me that anytime a prisoner, in a well-run properly staffed prison, is subject to significant violence, there was some lack of sufficient care. It needs to be investigated with lessons learned, regardless of whether the prisoner is a VIP. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/231 "2024-06-01T21:24:18Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > It seems to me that anytime a prisoner, in a well-run properly staffed prison, is subject to significant violence, there was some lack of sufficient care. It needs to be investigated with lessons learned, regardless of whether the prisoner is a VIP. It seems to occur more than a hundred times a year= > **[msfp0118st.pdf](https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/msfp0118st.pdf)** > > 920.55 KB 120 times in 2018. That is just killings. Prison beatdowns are more common. And so you investigate and the killer is a lifer anyway. Or “nobody saw nuttin”. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/232 "2024-06-01T21:29:07Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > elderly, poor health Somebody hasn’t been paying attention to the reports from this guy: [![](https://i.ndtvimg.com/i/2018-05/harold-bornstein-facebook_650x400_61525239277.jpg) ](https://i.ndtvimg.com/i/2018-05/harold-bornstein-facebook_650x400_61525239277.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/233 "2024-06-01T21:31:59Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > Somebody hasn’t been paying attention to the reports from this guy: Elderly, delusional, in poor mental health. trump has a Schrodingers condition- too ill to be put in prison/ healthy enough to be President. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/234 "2024-06-01T21:33:46Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > Somebody hasn’t been paying attention to the reports from this guy: Who’s now dead. > **[Doctor who backed Trump's health boasts dies at age 73](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-obituaries-8ac839287190c825e2fd525942daf1e4)** > > NEW YORK (AP) — Dr. Harold N. Bornstein, the physician who once declared that Donald Trump would be “the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency," died Jan. 8. But, yeah, trump isn’t getting consecutive sentences. Whatever sentence he gets for each count will run concurrent to the rest. I think 11 month, 29 days - so he can do it in county jail - sounds about right to me. Oh, and a maximum fine. ---
**Author:** ![Oxido](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9adbd/32.png) [@Oxido](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oxido)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/235 "2024-06-01T21:40:15Z")
I wish the judge would also include his history of litigation as well in his consideration of sentence terms. Trump U fraud, charity fraud, etc. Showing a lifetime pattern of deception? I guess prior civil cases arent relevant ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/236 "2024-06-01T21:43:10Z")
> [@Oxido](#): > > I guess prior civil cases arent relevant I’d disagree to the extent they go to a pattern and practice of dishonesty, which you cited. > [@Oxido](#): > > Trump U fraud, charity fraud, etc. Showing a lifetime pattern of deception? This time it was criminal because Trump turned his attention to a presidential election. But he has been lying and cheating his whole life. I’d expect his legal history should be a part of the presentence report. If not, were I the DA I’d certainly bring it up in my sentencing memorandum. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/237 "2024-06-01T21:57:03Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > If _you_ want to predict 30+ four year consecutive terms I didn’t even hint that. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/238 "2024-06-01T22:16:12Z")
Just consider the astonishing responsibility Juan Merchan now faces. His July 11 sentence is the sword of Damocles hanging over the Trump campaign. Remember how _Time_ magazine’s Person of the Year was supposed to be the person who most influenced the events of the year? Judge Merchan – along with District Attorney Alvin Bragg – may well end up fitting that criterion for 2024. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/239 "2024-06-01T22:21:12Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > trump has a Schrodingers condition- too ill to be put in prison/ healthy enough to be President. LMFAO–it’s the best of both worlds!!! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/240 "2024-06-01T23:45:52Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I didn’t even hint that. No, in fact- I cant find that ever gave your opinions here? Just questioned others? I am puzzled and curious- So what IS your learned opinion on this issue? > [@griffin1977](#): > > Yeah that’s a good example, and is similar to Trump’s. It was a non-violent felony, she was a first time offender, so she [was offered](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/martha-turned-down-plea-bargain/#:~:text=A%20published%20report%20reveals%20that,exchange%20for%20a%20probation%20sentence.) a non custodial plea deal, she turned it down, lost a jury trial and got a prison sentence. Yes, but it was hardly 10 years. As I posted here before from Wikipedia- _After a highly publicized six-week jury trial, Stewart was found guilty in March 2004 of [felony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony) charges of conspiracy to obstruct, of obstruction of an agency proceeding, and of [making false statements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Making_false_statements) to federal investigators and was sentenced in July 2004 to serve a five-month term in a federal correctional facility and a two-year period of [supervised release](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervised_release) (including five months of [electronic monitoring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_monitoring)).[[56]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Stewart#cite_note-CNN_All_Charges-56)_ Five months + two years supervised release. I can see something similar for trump. > [@Moriarty](#): > > There was at least one case in New York where the defendant was _acquitted_ of the underlying crime, but the falsification of business records was upheld on appeal. Yeah, we used to do that all the time on the Joint Organized Crime task force\*- The gangster would kill or intimidate the witnesses, so it ended up being 99 counts of wire fraud and money laundering. As the lead FBI agent put it- you can’t kill or scare the numbers. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=13)