# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/21 "2024-05-17T00:09:31Z")
Speaker McFly and the rest of the Congressional conjugal visitors fly to NYC to show support for a traitorous rapist and have the gall to express outrage at the impropriety of the judge’s daughter supposedly making money off the trial somehow. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/22 "2024-05-17T00:15:39Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > So there’s absolutely _no_ reason why Merchan should be looking for excuses to mitigate the sentence. Googling tells me, from New York criminal defense attorneys, that convictions for a Class E felony entail a _minimum_ of a year in jail. > > We shall see. But I know how _I_ feel about the incorrigible gasbag, and he hasn’t addressed me or my family. Yeah I think he’s going to go out of his way to be impartial. He won’t give him 4 years or make the sentences run consecutively as that risks resentencing on appeal. But I can’t see any evidence he would give a non-custodial sentence. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/23 "2024-05-17T00:51:26Z")
There’s absolutely zero chance he serves time for the hush money case if convicted. Maybe for the other two, but the justice system is going to make sure neither of those cases go forward before the election and he’s favored so he probably won’t pay for those either. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/24 "2024-05-17T00:56:03Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > There’s absolutely zero chance he serves time for the hush money case if convicted. On what do you base this ridiculously over-confident assertion? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/25 "2024-05-17T00:56:59Z")
Having a memory longer than a goldfish. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/26 "2024-05-17T01:09:03Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > There’s absolutely zero chance he serves time for the hush money case if convicted On what evidence are you basing that certainty ? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/27 "2024-05-17T01:12:29Z")
So…nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/28 "2024-05-17T01:42:43Z")
First time non violent offenders rarely get jail time for that crime. Plus the optics. I’d be the happiest person on the planet to be wrong, but i guess we’ll have to wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/29 "2024-05-17T01:48:14Z")
Are you reading the experts’ posts in this very thread? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/30 "2024-05-17T01:53:42Z")
What posts specifically are by legal experts making the case for jail time? The Brennan Center found 10% of similar cases ended in jail time and I think the circumstances surrounding this lean significantly towards the lower rather than higher side of sentencing. [How Could Trump’s New York Hush Money Trial End?](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-could-trumps-new-york-hush-money-trial-end#:~:text=Trump%20is%20charged%20with%2034,a%20prison%20sentence%20is%20unlikely). ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/31 "2024-05-17T02:11:03Z")
We still need to get past that _yuge_ “if” in the thread title. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/32 "2024-05-17T02:21:52Z")
When it happens I’ll believe it. ---
**Author:** ![Beckdawrek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beckdawrek/32/3647_2.png) [@Beckdawrek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beckdawrek)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/33 "2024-05-17T02:23:12Z")
He’s won it, in my opinion. (Dammit) ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/34 "2024-05-17T02:37:56Z")
So that means that there’s not no chance, right? 10% is still a chance. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/35 "2024-05-17T02:45:44Z")
I have argued that circumstances suggest he’s less likely than normal. But then you’ll argue “5% is still a chance!” or “2% is still a chance!” Sure, you got me. But surely you’ve heard of hyperbole? ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/36 "2024-05-17T02:49:14Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > The Brennan Center found 10% of similar cases ended in jail time So the actual link is paywalled so I can see it, but as far as I can tell this number includes cases where the defendant plead guilty in exchange for deal, which are far more likely to have a non-custodial sentence. The majority of similar cases where the defendant pleads not guilty and goes to trial result in custodial sentences. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/37 "2024-05-17T02:49:52Z")
Give a cite for that please. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/38 "2024-05-17T02:50:29Z")
Like heck! (just kidding) Yeah. What really galls me about the whole thing, I mean besides the fact he committed these and other crimes, is that the judge might take into consideration the possibility of rioting if he hands down a custodial sentence. Let’s hope the public safety folks in New York and elsewhere are fully prepared for such rioting and the judge bases his decision on the facts. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/39 "2024-05-17T03:04:19Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > But when you consider the seriousness of the offense – messing with a presidential election – it would seem to me that it should fall on the more aggravated end of the punishment scale. If you’re talking about the current trial, that’s not the charge, is it? This is a state of NY trial for falsifying business records and related charges, incurred while trying to whitewash the hush money. The OP mentioned election interference, equally wrongly. You can read about the charges [here](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-all-of-charges-against-trump-in-the-new-york-hush-money-case). ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/40 "2024-05-17T03:08:37Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Give a cite for that please So the analysis is paywalled as I said: > **[Before Trump New York Issued 9,800 Charges of Falsifying Business Records |...](https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/?slreturn=20240416230837)** > > Data shows 9,794 cases involving state penal law 175.10, or falsifying business records in the first degree, have been arraigned in both local and superior New York state courts since 2015. But he does say this so I am confident in saying that analysis includes plea deal as we well as jury trial guilty verdicts, and plea deals receive much lighter sentences (and account for majority of cases) > For instance, [Richard Luthmann](https://www.justsecurity.org/85745/survey-of-prosecutions-for-covert-payments-to-benefit-campaigns/) was accused of attempting to deceive voters — in his case, impersonating New York political figures on social media in an attempt to influence campaigns. He pleaded guilty to three counts of falsifying business records in the first degree (as well as to other charges). He received a sentence of incarceration on the felony falsification counts [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=3)