# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/81 "2024-05-18T16:35:42Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Your basic point that Trump could remain free for years pending resolution of all appeals is valid. Not a sure thing, but certainly possible. Thanks 🙂 I value your opinion on these matters. As it relates to the OP, would you estimate that the scenario of years of appeals while Trump walks free is more likely or less likely than that he will be instantly remanded to jail after sentencing? (Going along with the thought experiment that he is found guilty, of course). ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/82 "2024-05-18T16:37:42Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > As it relates to the OP, would you estimate that the scenario of years of appeals while Trump walks free is more likely or less likely than that he will be instantly remanded to jail after sentencing I would think he’ll remain free until sentencing. After that, I can’t predict. Most defendants don’t get to stay free during the appeal. But, as we know, it’s Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/83 "2024-05-18T16:44:26Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I’ve seen judges have defendants taken into custody immediately after a guilty verdict even though they were out of custody pending trial. (they’re no longer presumed innocent) Seconded. It’s what anybody else convicted of a felony should expect. > [@Procrustus](#): > > Most defendants don’t get to stay free during the appeal. Also seconded. Nobody convicted of a felony and then sentenced should expect to avoid that sentence by virtue of filing an appeal. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/84 "2024-05-18T16:54:50Z")
In California, I saw bail on appeal granted exactly one time. The defendant had previously held a position of great civic responsibility. The judge was new and inexperienced. It did not go well. The defendant re-offended during the appeal period (about 2 years) and the case was, as we had all predicted, remanded for retrial because of judicial error made in rulings on evidence of juror misconduct that surfaced before the verdict was taken. In short, that entire case was a clusterfuck. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/85 "2024-05-18T17:05:45Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Nobody…should expect to avoid… This is not mr nobody. This is Trump. And didn’t the Supreme Court rule recently that a sitting President is immune from all prosecution, and by extension, a candidate for President is probably also immune? Trump will never be locked up… He might be sentenced to probation, which would just be symbolic, with no practical limitations for him.(maybe somone on his staff will have to send an occasional email to the probation officer notifying that “trump is flying out of state today to speak at a rally”.) ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/86 "2024-05-18T17:10:39Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Where could he go? Besides Russia. Saudi Arabia. No extradition treaty. Trump can live in a gold-plated apartment owned by one of the princes. People will pay money to come and look at the president through the one-way glass. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/87 "2024-05-18T17:11:03Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > This is not mr nobody. > This is Trump. If Judge Merchan values the rule of law, he won’t care. And neither will the rest of the criminal justice system that incarcerates him. > [@chappachula](#): > > didn’t the Supreme Court rule recently that a sitting President is immune from all prosecution No they haven’t. They’ve argued about it, but that decision comes this summer. And yes, they could immunize him. But at that point we are well and truly fucked, insofar as that’s a grant of dictatorial powers to the chief executive. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/88 "2024-05-18T17:12:36Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > He’ll have to surrender his passport(s) if convicted. He gets on his jet, and heads east. Who’s going to stop him? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/89 "2024-05-18T17:15:03Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > He gets on his jet, and heads east. Who’s going to stop him? This. He won’t need a passport to land his private jet at a private runway owned by a Saudi prince. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/90 "2024-05-18T17:15:25Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > No they haven’t. They’ve argued about it, but that decision comes this summer. Thanks, i didnt know that. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/91 "2024-05-18T17:19:30Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > If Judge Merchan values the rule of law, he won’t care. And neither will the rest of the criminal justice system that incarcerates him. This, exactly. And if Judge Merchan chooses to impose a period of incarceration, I hope he points out at the sentencing that Trump had total control over how long this case took to get to trial. If he wished to have a speedy trial and get the case over with before the election, he had the option to do so. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/92 "2024-05-18T17:24:51Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He won’t need a passport to land his private jet at a private runway owned by a Saudi prince. How would it benefit a saudi prince to host Trump? And would Trump agree to live in a country where all the women are covered up in hijabs and niqabs? Trump’s more likely to fly to his good buddy Putin. And in Russia, there’s a popular girl-band called Pussy Riot. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/93 "2024-05-18T17:34:58Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > How would it benefit a saudi prince to host Trump? And would Trump agree to live in a country where all the women are covered up in hijabs and niqabs? He would have a pet president in his compound. Plenty of prestige to be had there. And Trump would have plenty of access to women, porn, anything he wanted. The rules do not apply to the rich. Russia is certainly a possibility as well. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/94 "2024-05-18T17:37:24Z")
Moderating: > [@chappachula](#): > > Trump’s more likely to fly to his good buddy Putin. And in Russia, there’s a popular girl-band called Pussy Riot. 🙂 > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Russia is certainly a possibility as well. This is getting off topic. The discussion is about Trump going to jail/prison, not about if he flees. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/95 "2024-05-18T18:41:12Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Trump is still walking around until his appeal is done This is not guaranteed. Merchan will give Trump a date to report to jail after sentencing (and yeah that bit is absolutely BS that is afforded rich white men convicted of white collar crimes but not usually everyone else) he will need to find a judge who will both hear the appeal AND stay the order to report to jail during the appeal, before that date rolls up That is a definite possibility, but it’s not guaranteed. And the deciding factor is usually how likely the appeal is to succeed (which makes me wonder if all the instances of Trump’s lawyers falling to object dubious things witnesses have said is actually about making that case easier) ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/96 "2024-05-18T18:54:10Z")
Deleted for missing mod note on hijack. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/97 "2024-05-18T18:55:50Z")
Deleted. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/98 "2024-05-18T18:57:52Z")
Further deletion. Back on topic, perhaps if Judge Merchan does allow Trump to be free on personal recognizance pending sentencing, one of the conditions might be an ankle bracelet? There’d definitely be some conditions imposed, with violation of any condition met with jail? I’m only familiar with practices in the First Circuit District Courts. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/99 "2024-05-18T18:58:35Z")
That would be the easiest. I’ll delete my mod note, too. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/100 "2024-05-18T21:37:57Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > This is not guaranteed. Merchan will give Trump a date to report to jail after sentencing (and yeah that bit is absolutely BS that is afforded rich white men convicted of white collar crimes but not usually everyone else) he will need to find a judge who will both hear the appeal AND stay the order to report to jail during the appeal, before that date rolls up > > That is a definite possibility, but it’s not guaranteed. And the deciding factor is usually how likely the appeal is to succeed (which makes me wonder if all the instances of Trump’s lawyers falling to object dubious things witnesses have said is actually about making that case easier) Yes, nothing I am saying is guaranteed. I could be spectacularly wrong, and I hope to the gods that I am. But you seem to be of the opinion that, once convicted, Trump will be treated as an ordinary criminal and I am decidedly not of that opinion. I believe he will continue to receive special consideration, _as he has through his multiple ongoing trials_. Think of what happened with the Special Master ruling in the document case: Cannon specifically cited the “unprecedented” circumstances in that ludicrous ruling. Think about Fani Willis being challenged in the GA election interference case. Multiple law-talking folks said that that whole episode of putting Willis and Wade on the stand was unheard of. Think about Judge Chutkan putting the Jan 6 case on a complete hold while Trump is allowed to claim absolutely immunity all the way to the Supreme Court. Think about Judge Merchan himself saying in court that he didn’t want to jail Trump for contempt specifically because he was the former president and current candidate. He has been getting special treatment all over the place. I believe he will continue to do so, even if he is convicted in this case. I believe that special treatment will come in the form of some kind of non-custodial sentence combined with a fine (that will have no impact on his finances). Once again, I hope I am dead wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=6)