# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/101 "2024-05-18T23:00:06Z")
At this point there is no sane reason to believe that Trump, even potentially convicted felon Trump, wouldn’t continue to be treated like a fucking special case until he ceases to be. I’ll believe it when I see it. Because I’ve seen how it’s been so far. The justice system, Merrick Garland included, has never been anything but afraid of actually coming to a decision about this criminal clown. The man has been out of office for nearly four years now. Tell it to the defendant accused of robbing the liquor store, that his trial will be four years from now. GTFO. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/102 "2024-05-19T00:20:47Z")
If a theoretical defendant had 100 million dollars of _other people’s money_ to spend on their legal defense I bet they could get a trial pushed back a bit at least. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/103 "2024-05-19T00:26:19Z")
American “justice”. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/104 "2024-05-19T03:21:10Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > This is getting off topic. The discussion is about Trump going to jail/prison, not about if he flees. Threads about where Trump would flee to: > [@Hypothetically, if Trump flees the US, where would he go?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetically-if-trump-flees-the-us-where-would-he-go/985460): > > If the deep state or shallow state every catches up with Trump, which country should he settle in (assuming he doesn’t want to face US legal consequences)? Requirements: the foreign country would have to be friendly to Trump and lack an extradition treaty with the US.1 After that, it comes down to quality of life issues. WIki: [List of United States extradition treaties - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_extradition_treaties) Saudi Arabia and Russia come to mind. But I think Dubai in the UAE would be most comfortable. UAE has 10 golf cou… Also: > [@What happens if Trump absconds to Russia?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-absconds-to-russia/985656): > > Not sure this belongs in Factual Questions, so feel free to move it to a more appropriate forum. If Trump were to suddenly feel the heat and decides to lam it to Russia, what would happen? I expect that Putin would refuse to return him in exchange for allowing the FSB to debrief him. Given the intel he had access to, would the US take steps to prevent that from happening (anything from ordering him not to leave Mar-a-Lago to shooting down his plane)? Given that he’d probably be going from me… ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/105 "2024-05-19T03:27:04Z")
If found guilty, then there’s almost no chance of Trump being sent to prison. A white, rich, male first time offender for a non-violent crime? No way. The only way Trump sees prison if he loses the election, and is found guilty concerning the theft of documents. I almost see a prison sentence as unavoidable in that case. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/106 "2024-05-19T03:33:33Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > A first time white, rich, male offender for a non-violent crime? No way. Was the only reason Martha Stewart went to jail because she was female? That seems like an odd assumption. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/107 "2024-05-19T03:39:51Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Think of what happened with the Special Master ruling in the document case: Cannon specifically cited the “unprecedented” circumstances in that ludicrous ruling. So that is Judge Cannon, yeah I’d put fairly good money on her letting Trump out of prison during the appeal, but she has always been an outlier (and again even she, despite her bullshit, has not actually found for Trump, the documents trial is delayed but still going ahead even though she could have had it shutdown or sabotaged in any number of ways) What evidence the other judges in the case, like Merchan or Chutkan, who have had absolutely no time for his bullshit, feel the same way? None at all. And more importantly for this matter how many judges like Aileen Cannon are there in the NY state appeals system? NY is not known for being a particularly conservative MAGA loving state, I’d say the chances of the appeal landing in the desk of someone like her is very low indeed. Of course he could try and get it fast tracked to the SCOTUS but that is a risk for him as fast tracking is the last thing he wants to do. His case for appeal is not actually that strong, he wants to string it out for as long as possible, SCOTUS may decide to let him stay out of jail while they decide, but they are much less likely to actually find on his behalf (all the evidence indicates they aren’t in the immunity case) and once they decide it’s final AFAIK So given all that there is still a perfectly reasonable chance that Merchan will give him a date to report to jail he’ll appeal and the appeal court judge will say “yes I’ll hear the appeal, but no I’m not staying the order to report to jail”. In that case could he even appeal just the lack of a stay to the next level of appeals court (or the SCOTUS)? ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/108 "2024-05-19T03:58:17Z")
Of course, you can find examples of somebody rich and white going to prison. The justice system isn’t so biased that it is impossible for someone rich, white, and male to go to jail. All too often, at least for white collar crime, it is for the cardinal sin of: Thou shalt not steal from the rich (steal from the poor all you like). It is almost universally acknowledged that there is systemic bias in favor of the rich, white, and male. I can put forward a near endless parade of rich, white, male (typically all three) getting a slap on the wrist for serious, even violent crimes, that no other person would receive. But more importantly the literature confirms it as well. Of course, not every case is all about race (or wealth or sex) that would be absurd, but there is a bias. My prediction remains on the hush money, no prison for Trump. I’d love to be wrong. Frydl, K., & Skogan, W. (Eds.). (2004). _Fairness and effectiveness in policing: The evidence_ . National Academies Press. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/109 "2024-05-19T04:00:15Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Think about Fani Willis being challenged in the GA election interference case. Multiple law-talking folks said that that whole episode of putting Willis and Wade on the stand was unheard of. Think about Judge Chutkan putting the Jan 6 case on a complete hold while Trump is allowed to claim absolutely immunity all the way to the Supreme Court. Think about Judge Merchan himself saying in court that he didn’t want to jail Trump for contempt specifically because he was the former president and current candidate Though none of thah remotely qualifies as special treatment. The Willis/Wade thing was bs, but any competent defense lawyer (I mean an expensive lawyer on a high profile case, a public defender probably not) would use the fact that the DA and the attorney on the case were in a relationship. Also note (one thing often missed in recent coverage) that the recent appeal of the verdict (which was was against Trump and allowed Willis to continue) does not stop the trial preparation, or push back the trial date. Its still perfectly possible to happen this year. Judge Chutkan putting the Jan 6 case on hold? That’s the literally how US law works. When a higher court accepts an appeal, the case is put on hold. Judge Merchan himself saying in court that he didn’t want to jail Trump for contempt, misses the key bit. He said he didn’t want to BUT HE WOULD. He was saying he was not unduly biased against Trump but would absolutely send him to prison just like any defendant if needed. That’s a strong piece of evidence in support of a custodial sentence ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/110 "2024-05-19T04:02:02Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Judge Merchan himself saying in court that he didn’t want to jail Trump for contempt, misses the key bit. He said he didn’t want to BUT HE WOULD. He was saying he was not unduly biased against Trump but would absolutely send him to prison just like any defendant if needed. That’s a strong piece of evidence in support of a custodial sentence Yeah he said that, but as much as I like Merchan, I don’t believe he would actually do it. I highly suspect that for any further contempt of court Trump will get a “I’m warning you for the last time (before I warn you again).” The trial is almost over and I’m pretty sure Merchan would like to get through it without jailing Trump. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/111 "2024-05-19T04:06:23Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > It is almost universally acknowledged that there is systemic bias in favor of the rich, white, and male That’s true but the main reasons for thar are: - they aren’t prosecuted as much - When they are prosecuted they are given much more lenient plea deals - When they are brought to trial they are more likely to get off None of which applies here. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/112 "2024-05-19T04:18:32Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > Of course, you can find examples of somebody rich and white going to prison. Which is why the declaration that there’s almost no chance he’ll go to jail is not factual. > [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > It is almost universally acknowledged that there is systemic bias in favor of the rich, white, and male. No question. Those are all items of privilege. You forgot to mention being famous, that’s another reason a person might find the system to be in their favor. All that being said, such people do sometimes still end up in jail or prison. > [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > My prediction remains on the hush money, no prison for Trump. I’d love to be wrong. That’s fair. And you might be right. There’s no certainty in this case. There are a lot of reasons why he might avoid being behind bars. There just doesn’t seem to be an objective reason why he _couldn’t_ be, that’s all. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/113 "2024-05-19T15:34:44Z")
I’m making a prediction not a statement of absolute fact. As far as I know I cannot yet predict the future (if I start to I hope it is with lottery numbers!). My statement even acknowledged a chance that he could, I just think it very low because in addition to white, rich, male, and famous (thanks for that), there’s the political aspects. I think it will be challenging for Merchan to send former president and leading candidate Trump to prison during the campaign. Do I think it should matter? Honestly, I’m a bit torn on it. I don’t think it should matter with Trump because I hate Trump for good cause; however, I have to wonder what the Republicans will do with such a precedent. They have no low. At the same time, obviously nobody should be above the law not even the president, former or otherwise, or a candidate for president. But a lot of countries have a serious problem with jailing political opponents so I hate to see that door opening in the USA even if it would be proper and justified in this case. In any case, we’ll have to see and probably not much longer. I’m not even sure he’ll be found guilty. He quite obviously guilty of the misdemeanor but I think the leap to the felony might be challenging for the jury. A hung jury is a very real possibility. Personally, I think he’s guilty as heck. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2024, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/114 "2024-05-19T15:42:38Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > , I don’t believe he would actually do it. I This seems like a dubious prediction to me. I mean regardless the facts of the case. If a judge presiding over a criminal trial says in open court “if you do X I will do Y”. It’s a pretty compelling reason to think that if X happens Y will happen. To do otherwise would detract from their status as judge and judges really do not like that. It’s somewhat academic as it seems even Trump understands this bit of logic and isn’t pushing it ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/115 "2024-05-20T16:18:33Z")
Could the judge sentence him to house arrest in Mar-a-Lago, or can a NY judge only impose house arrest at NY addresses? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/116 "2024-05-20T19:44:00Z")
One other option Merchan has, if Trump is convicted, is to send him to jail pending sentencing but then _not_ imposing a custodial sentence. In a way, this would be the best of both worlds for Merchan: he gets to give Trump at least some time in the slammer but then avoid affecting Trump’s campaign activity very much (i.e., “election interference”). My gut about Merchan is that he wants to give the scumbag at least a taste of jail. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/117 "2024-05-20T19:54:50Z")
He should serve as much time as Cohen did. Not a day less. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/118 "2024-05-20T20:27:11Z")
> **[Interstate compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_compact)** > > In the United States, an interstate compact is a pact or agreement between two or more states, or between states and any foreign government. The Compact Clause (Article I, Section 10, Clause 3) of the United States Constitution provides that "No State shall, without the Consent of Congress,... enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power,..." > However, in a report released in October 2019 about the proposed National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, the Congressi... It will depend on the relationship between New York and Florida, but in theory it could be done. Just Googling around, there are times when house arrest can be served in another state than the one that sentences you. But the complication of doing this might be a reason for not doing it. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/119 "2024-05-20T20:29:33Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > He should serve as much time as Cohen did. Not a day less. And this, right here, is why I believe that in the event Trump is found guilty, Judge Merchan will impose a custodial sentence. It would be grossly unfair for Michael Cohen to have served more time for a crime that was done entirely at the behest of and for the benefit of Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/120 "2024-05-29T18:02:34Z")
Here is a gift link to a Washington post article about what they think is likely. > **[If convicted in his hush money trial, here’s what Trump could face next](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/29/trump-if-convicted-hush-money-trial-new-york/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzE2OTU1MjAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzE4MzM3NTk5LCJpYXQiOjE3MTY5NTUyMDAsImp0aSI6IjNmY2Y3NzQwLTJlZTAtNGIwMy1iMjY3LTAzZWE0MzNlYzRjMSIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDI0LzA1LzI5L3RydW1wLWlmLWNvbnZpY3RlZC1odXNoLW1vbmV5LXRyaWFsLW5ldy15b3JrLyJ9.nu6Hzedi_jU9T_cHJwA1XnyHzTgmYi3KhON-vY8OQDg&itid=gfta)** > > A guilty verdict for Trump would mean a mix of court processing steps and extraordinary considerations such as whether to incarcerate him, legal experts say. Long story short, they think the prison is unlikely, and he will likely be released until sentencing. On the other hand probation might be no picnic for Trump, who would have to clear every bit of travel with his parole officer and more interestingly > Convicts are “expected to tell the truth. If they are convicted and then say, ‘No, it’s a lie, it didn’t happen,’ that will go back to the judge. And that’s not good,” said defense attorney Jeremy Saland, who also served as a Manhattan prosecutor. Having Trump keep his trap shut through the probation period would be quite a challenge. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651.md?page=7)