# Trump will (probably) go to prison if he's found guilty

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [May 16, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651 "2024-05-16T21:31:57Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 124

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**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-will-probably-go-to-prison-if-hes-found-guilty/1001651/124 "2024-05-31T02:51:40Z")

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Quoted from another thread:

> [@Did Tump just defame Judge Merchan?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-tump-just-defame-judge-merchan/1002295/13):
>
> > [@Did Tump just defame Judge Merchan?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-tump-just-defame-judge-merchan/1002295/12):
> >
> > Getting prison time for a first offence white coller crime is very unusual
> 
> Not true. It happens all the time.

WAPO:

> Will Trump go to jail?  
> The charges against Trump are nonviolent Class E felonies, the lowest level in New York, and they are punishable by 16 months to four years in state prison. **Legal experts said it is unlikely that Trump, 77, would be incarcerated, given that he had not previously been convicted of a crime.**  
> Other options for Merchan include sentencing Trump to probation, which would mean he would need approval from a parole officer to travel outside the state. Trump also could be fined or granted a conditional discharge pegged to the requirement that he stay out of further legal trouble, legal experts said.

I read a lot about anonymous legal experts saying that it’s unlikely that Trump will be prosecuted. Those with a different opinion in this thread need to explain why anonymous legal experts and anonymous prosecutors talking to reporters from WAPO and the NYT have a different opinion.

I’m genuinely curious. I opine that in a case like this one, the written opinion will have to be grounded in law and reason (straightforward) and that the prospect of jailing a Presidential candidate will have a larger influence than is stated.

IANAL but I also suspect the odds of multiple month incarceration, while less than 50%, are higher than indicated by the mainstream press so far.

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