# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/201 "2024-02-12T18:47:13Z")
Yup, you can count on one hand **active** prominent conservative politicians willing to criticize Trump in public. Plenty of them find their voices only after retiring, saying very concerned stuff over their shoulders as they leave the political arena altogether. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/202 "2024-02-12T18:49:03Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I think Haley and DeSantis (RIP) built their campaign strategy hoping the same thing as the rest of us… that at some point Trump simply can’t continue, whether that’s due to being in hospital, jail, or a coffin. The “RIP” made me LOL! I think Haley is going to get her wish in this case. > [@](#): > > Yes he’s deteriorating, yes there’s a good chance Trump implodes sometime before the general, no I don’t find it a sure bet that that it happens before he picks up the nomination. Maybe like 1/7 odds at best. That’s a pretty good chance, actually. Thought experiment: Could Trump literally start giving the Nazi salute and say, “Sieg heil!” and still win the nomination? I don’t think so, right?! The thing is, he’s not that far from that right now! He’s given up on what he, in the past, did very well: stoking outrage while maintaining plausible deniability. He’s given up because he can’t mentally do it any more. It’s going to get worse, and the only question is how bad, how soon… ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/203 "2024-02-12T18:54:08Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > I understand what you mean, however, from the get-go he has always said things that would torpedo anyone else, and he has always gotten away with it. I don’t see how this is any different. Yep, and it’s a large black mark on our country that he got as far as he did and is still going. But there is a limit to everything. There will come a point where Republicans look at each other (figuratively speaking) and _know_ that there is a critical mass of them to denounce Trump, making it safe for each of them to do so and imperative of them to do so. Further, there is a candidate waiting, Haley, who could actually _beat_ Biden. It’s like in particle physics: when a lower energy state is available, it’s only a matter of time before the system assumes that state. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/204 "2024-02-12T18:56:02Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Thought experiment: Could Trump literally start giving the Nazi salute and say, “Sieg heil!” and still win the nomination? Ya know, I just don’t know anymore. I would like to think I live in a reality where this couldn’t happen, but I just don’t know. Every time it’s like _THIS is the straw that will break the camel’s back with the Republicans_, it never happens. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/205 "2024-02-12T18:57:14Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > There will come a point where Republicans look at each other (figuratively speaking) and _know_ that there is a critical mass of them to denounce Trump, making it safe for each of them to do so and imperative of them to do so. They’ve had that for years. They had it in 2016 during the primaries. But it’s a prisoner’s dilemma now. If only some (or even most) of them denounce him, the ones willing to go full MAGA will come out ahead and the ‘traitors’ will get primaried. The entire party has to do it all at once, and the party has a significant number of Greenes and Gaetzes who will never go along. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/206 "2024-02-12T18:57:26Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > But there is a limit to everything. Is there though? Will there be a tipping point where everything coalesces and R’s everywhere throw Trump under the bus? I don’t think so, as long as there is a solid 25% or 30% of R voters who are firmly in the MAGA camp, facts and logic be damned. The politicians don’t lead - they follow the marching moron voters. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/207 "2024-02-12T19:00:01Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Ya know, I just don’t know anymore. I would like to think I live in a reality where this couldn’t happen, but I just don’t know. Every time it’s like _THIS is the straw that will break the camel’s back with the Republicans_, it never happens. Ever see those videos where someone takes very pure water out of the freezer while it is still liquid, dings the glass a bit, and the whole glass freezes at once? It’s going to be like that. I think we’ve reached a turning point where the media’s self-interest lies less in playing up the horse race and more in outright saying Trump is a danger. This is going to spook Republicans, and they will all switch at once. It won’t be that hard. Trump will finally do _one thing_ that gives them permission to all turn on him at once. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/208 "2024-02-12T19:06:15Z")
You would have thought Jan 6 would’ve been the one thing. I do not share your optimism. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/209 "2024-02-12T19:07:26Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > You would have thought Jan 6 would’ve been the one thing. Yes. If the congressional R’s won’t turn on Trump when he LITERALLY SENT A MOB TO KILL THEM, then they will never turn on Trump. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/210 "2024-02-12T19:08:01Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Ya know, I just don’t know anymore. I would like to think I live in a reality where this couldn’t happen, but I just don’t know. Every time it’s like _THIS is the straw that will break the camel’s back with the Republicans_, it never happens. This. I believe that his supporters are so mindless, ignorant, stupid, uneducated, incapable of critical thought, or whatever (as the last eight years have clearly demonstrated), that they would be able to rationalize how a Nazi salute and “Sieg heil!” would be ok. Besides, enough of them are probably sufficiently racist enough that it wouldn’t necessarily require that much of a stretch. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/211 "2024-02-12T19:08:19Z")
Exactly. I think we can agree that there’s probably **something** that could turn sentiment against Trump, but it’s wishful thinking to hope he’ll actually **do** that something any time soon. The only that wrecks Trump at this moment in time is a health issue that takes away his ability to speak. His current slowly stumbling decline into incoherence ain’t cutting it. I’m talking total aphasia, dementia, or similar. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/212 "2024-02-12T19:08:59Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > You would have thought Jan 6 would’ve been the one thing. I do not share your optimism. Oh I agree. It’s fucking madness. The thing that’s different now is that Trump is not just misbehaving, he’s visibly losing control. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/213 "2024-02-12T19:11:38Z")
They were close to reaching critical mass at that point; he was pretty close to getting convicted in the Senate. When that failed, they went back to being afraid of Trump. Some of them, of course, are still Trump enthusiasts, but I think the majority would prefer to be rid of him and, you know, actually start winning elections again. They’re cowards, however, so they are waiting for their opportunity to form a mob without danger to themselves and finally oust him. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/214 "2024-02-12T19:17:57Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think we’ve reached a turning point where the media’s self-interest lies less in playing up the horse race and more in outright saying Trump is a danger. Naw, they’re too busy wallowing in “Biden is senile!!!” ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/215 "2024-02-12T19:23:48Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > The only that wrecks Trump at this moment in time is a health issue that takes away his ability to speak. His current slowly stumbling decline into incoherence ain’t cutting it. I’m talking total aphasia, dementia, or similar. Even then, he’d get 27% of the vote, due to the [Keyes Constant.](https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Crazification_factor) ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/216 "2024-02-12T19:39:19Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > I’ve smelled cat-food and poop on a cat’s breath before, but I wonder what face-breath smells like? Unfortunately, it’s so difficult to countenance, there’s no expression for it. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/217 "2024-02-12T19:41:15Z")
Moderating: > [@solost](#): > > Unfortunately, it’s so difficult to countenance, there’s no expression for it. Nicely done, but let’s not hijack a P&E thread with the pun thing. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/218 "2024-02-12T21:06:49Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Thought experiment: Could Trump literally start giving the Nazi salute and say, “Sieg heil!” and still win the nomination? I don’t think so, right?! You seem to be under the mistaken impression that the Republicans don’t want to be Nazis. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/219 "2024-02-12T21:28:42Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > They were close to reaching critical mass at that point; he was pretty close to getting convicted in the Senate. He wasn’t close to being convicted — it would have taken another ten votes to convict. Senate Republicans voted for his acquittal by a margin of 43-7. Frankly, I think you’re viewing recent history and current Republican politics through extremely rose-colored glasses. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/220 "2024-02-12T22:56:28Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Thought experiment: Could Trump literally start giving the Nazi salute and say, “Sieg heil!” and still win the nomination? I don’t think so, right?! Wrong. Here’s precisely how that would go down: [![](https://images.dailykos.com/images/574802/story_image/1350.png?1533664371) ](https://images.dailykos.com/images/574802/story_image/1350.png?1533664371) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=12)