# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Borborygmi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/borborygmi/32/217_2.png) [@Borborygmi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Borborygmi)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2024, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/261 "2024-02-23T22:54:18Z")
^Right, any supposed MAGA claiming Trump is a Deep State operative is obviously a MAGAINO. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2024, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/262 "2024-02-23T23:00:22Z")
MAGAINO sounds like a pretty good name for a new chain of bad middle class Italian restaurants. Sorta Olive Garden rebooted. Either that or the MAGAINO is their new signature appetizer. I’m not sure what it’s made from, but I’m sure it’s a) stupid, and b) has bad taste. Which is almost the same thing as “tastes bad”, but not quite. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2024, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/263 "2024-02-24T00:07:08Z")
I most probably agree with you, thus my comment in the paragraph above that which you quoted: > [@ParallelLines](#): > > And they may be right. I should probably have put an extra emphasis on _may_. They’re gambling. And you’re right, historically, it’s been a bad gamble, especially for societies (including that in the US) where the military is most often drawn from the “rabble” (gross generalization, I know, but still). But it’s not all that different from where they were in 2016 - none of the Republican Gentry (term chosen for effect!) -wanted- anything to do with Trump, but once the writing was on the wall, the did roughly the same math. And it went reasonably well from their POV. They got most of what they wanted (although with far too much drama!), and as long as they paid lip service to Trump, they stayed in relative power while any of their principled brethern ended up gone, retired, or otherwise sidelined. And very few of them have had an substantial legal or financial woes as a result. Will 2024 end up being the same? They probably bet it will be. I’d not be taking odds on it either way, because even if I win, we all lose as it were. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2024, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/264 "2024-02-24T01:13:01Z")
Yes, you and I are in all-but total agreement. My concern with a trump presidency is not so much what increasingly senile donnie will do himself. Beside generate chaotic headlines. But rather what all the bad actors he’ll usher in will do. And doubly so if the office of the president is mostly just a caretaker busy box for trump’s personal foibles while meanwhile the hangers-on and the state level R party partisans are engaging in a nationwide smash-and-grab on all the laws, conventions, rights, and bureacuracies we’ve built up over 100 years of steady progress towards being a modern nation. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2024, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/265 "2024-02-24T02:33:01Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The MAGAts aren’t _that_ bad (yet), but although I don’t doubt the landed gentry, CEO brigade, and Wall Street, etc., expects to take back their party, they may well prove to be quite mistaken about how easy, or inevitable, it will actually be. Oh yes. They are clearly not students of history. How many of them are conversant with [The Night of The Long Knives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives)? Long time Trump supporters and allies might just find themselves on the wrong end of the pointy stick in the near future if they make any move to “take back their party.” ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2024, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/266 "2024-02-24T02:56:26Z")
I have to admit that the blind squirrel got a nut this time. DJT coming out for IVF was indeed the right political move. The IVF debacle had potential to decimate the GOP and he actually came down on the right side of an issue. For all the wrong reasons but still… ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/267 "2024-02-25T00:17:40Z")
The IVF thing will either decimate or vastly energize the R faithful. By the time their propaganda people get done w the story, it’ll be all about preventing immigrants, and especially illegals, from creating hundreds of “anchor babies” _each_. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/268 "2024-02-25T01:35:51Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The IVF thing will either decimate or vastly energize the R faithful. It’s going to hurt the GOP even further. Wealthy couples desperate to have their own children will run into even more obstacles than they expected and they’re not going to be happy about that. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/269 "2024-02-25T01:57:50Z")
I think you are right. Nothing is running in the GOP’s favor currently, other than rabid fascists aching for control… ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/270 "2024-02-25T02:38:58Z")
And if the rabid fascists outvote the rest of the country in the few jurisdictions where it’s not a foregone conclusion they’ll outvote their neighbors, then what? ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/271 "2024-02-25T02:44:05Z")
Just for sake of discussing the only current opposition to Trump in 2024, Haley (with 82%) of the vote in, is running 40% to Trump’s 60%. In her home state. Now, that’s only a single point, and in states where the remnants of traditional, non-MAGA Republicans have a stronger point, I’d expect her to be closer. But still… Maybe everyone who isn’t already deep-MAGA doesn’t want Trump, but I don’t see any reasonable circumstance in which Haley manages to dig her way out of the ever-deeper hole. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/272 "2024-02-25T03:43:02Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > but I don’t see any reasonable circumstance in which Haley manages to dig her way out of the ever-deeper hole. There is none. This OP is just not based in any reality I live in, unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/273 "2024-02-25T04:16:05Z")
Furthermore: he gets the nomination, he loses the election again, and _ **he will still refuse to walk away** _ (and MAGAnation will, “with tears in their eyes”, beg him not to) so the GOP will be _unable_ to pick itself up and shake it off as it were. (Meanwhile since in any case the Party has firmly established “we only lose because we weren’t hardcore enough” as their excuse for losing since late in _last_ century, MAGA types will even so continue to insist in displacing the diminishing remnant of merely terrible “normal” Republican officials in “safe seats” in counties, states and congressional districts.) ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/274 "2024-02-25T04:55:26Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > Maybe everyone who isn’t already deep-MAGA doesn’t want Trump, but I don’t see any reasonable circumstance in which Haley manages to dig her way out of the ever-deeper hole. I never really thought Haley had a snowball’s chance in hell of getting the nomination. But you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, and at the very least she might have set herself up for another run at the presidency in a post Trump Republican party. It was nice seeing her piss Donnie off and provide further evidence that there are fissures in the Republican party. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/275 "2024-02-25T05:58:35Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I never really thought Haley had a snowball’s chance in hell of getting the nomination. I agree, but that’s a point for her thread. Specifically, that the only Republican challenger of note is failing, and _badly_ (if not unexpectedly, granted) is one more nail in the coffin of _this_ thread. We are at the point that as long as Trump is not dead or so unconcealably senile he can’t function, he will the the Republican party nominee in 2024. Even if he’s convicted on federal or state crimes, it’s not going to shake his hold, certainly not while he runs through years of appeals. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/276 "2024-02-25T11:58:03Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > We are at the point that as long as Trump is not dead or so unconcealably senile he can’t function, he will the the Republican party nominee in 2024. We’re pretty close to this point, though. Have you seen some of the outtakes of his recent speeches? People make fun of Biden’s gaffes, fair enough, but Trump is _crumbling before our eyes._ And his deterioration seems to accelerate by the day. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/277 "2024-02-25T12:07:02Z")
Aaah, yes. But have any of his supporters seen those outtakes? Probably not. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/278 "2024-02-25T12:30:17Z")
What even the fuck is THIS?! > ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/279 "2024-02-25T12:35:36Z")
And this (smh): > ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2024, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/280 "2024-02-25T12:57:19Z")
Couldn’t Haley’s strategy be to just hang around until, for whatever reason, Trump can’t run in November? Suppose Trump _completely_ loses it mentally, is criminally convicted (I know this isn’t a disqualifier but might a bridge too far for undecideds or independents) or had a medical issue. Who would the GOP run? Right now, she seems to be the obvious choice. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=15)