# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/301 "2024-02-26T01:18:01Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Yes, the Red Tide failed to happen and the Senate was secured but 2022 saw the loss of the House to the Freedom Caucus. It was a _fantastic_ result for us. > [@](#): > > The special elections are a good sign but let’s be prudent about expectations. Yup. And I’m from Evansville (well, since 2022), where we elected our first black mayor and our first woman mayor, Stephanie Terry. The city has had both Democratic and Republican mayors over the past 20 years, so it’s not as though the Democrat automatically wins. Further, the city is less than 15% Black. This also struck me as a _very_ good sign. > [@](#): > > But he remained and remains the frontrunner still – what has kept those potentates from doing what needed done the past 3 years? First, they have no grand vision or strategy, just as the conservative politicians and industrialists in Germany had none in the early 1930s. They operate out of self-interest and fear. Trump was not immediately on their radar because he wasn’t even running. There was nothing they could do to take him out of power. Then, in the Republican primary, some did support Haley and others. Now, however, they _all_ need to do something, or they will soon have nothing left. This is where the fear and self-interest need to work. And I think, belatedly, they will. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/302 "2024-02-26T02:24:59Z")
Nice summary of Trump’s accelerating cognitive deterioration: > **[The media will not report that Trump appears to have middle-stage Dementia](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/25/2225652/-The-media-will-not-report-that-Trump-has-early-onset-Dementia?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > If you watch mainstream news, you know two things. Republicans get the lion’s share of the coverage even when they’re behaving in disgusting reprehensible ways. And you know that Joe Biden is old. The horse-race media tells us that we have two... ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/303 "2024-02-26T02:28:53Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > The special elections are a good sign but let’s be prudent about expectations. > > Yup. And I’m from Evansville (well, since 2022), where we elected our first black mayor and our first woman mayor, Stephanie Terry. The city has had both Democratic and Republican mayors over the past 20 years, so it’s not as though the Democrat automatically wins. Further, the city is less than 15% Black. This also struck me as a _very_ good sign. I think that you’re taking away the wrong lesson from the above though. YES, especially on abortion, there was a large pushback, that provided a major upswell of Democratic support. BUT, the lesson Republicans learned was not to mitigate the Madness, but to cheat _harder_. See Ohio’s multiple levels of legislative fuckery over enshining abortion rights in the state Constitution. We can be cautiously optomistic, sure, but for every individual, or local success or step forward, the state governments red areas are pushing illiberal, undemocratic, reactionary laws to provide for permament minority rule. And with the damage done to our federal judges and the SCOTUS during Trump’s era, there is not going to be any reversion to a more balanced take anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/304 "2024-02-26T02:44:43Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > I think that you’re taking away the wrong lesson from the above though. I agree with other things you are saying here, but what is my “wrong lesson”? > [@](#): > > BUT, the lesson Republicans learned was not to mitigate the Madness, but to cheat _harder_. See Ohio’s multiple levels of legislative fuckery over enshining abortion rights in the state Constitution. Yep, the GOP has given up on democracy. The political and civil order is hanging by a thread at this point. > [@](#): > > And with the damage done to our federal judges and the SCOTUS during Trump’s era, there is not going to be any reversion to a more balanced take anytime soon. No, we will probably have American Revolution 2.0 pretty soon. If Trump wins, that will happen very soon. If Biden wins, the Cold Civil War will continue, and only a collapse of the GOP can avert catastrophe. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/305 "2024-02-26T02:58:14Z")
By wrong lesson, I meant that you look to the positive, local steps and postulate that a GOP collapse is likely whether it be by losing to Biden or by the fat cats deserting him. Instead, the GOP is leaning that after years of slowly losing, it’s better to break the system than adapt. Which was what they said they were going to do after the Obama/Romney post-mortem, but they got Trump instead. And as pointed out repeatedly, sure, maybe they figured they could work around Trump in 2016, but staying craven in 2020 was _chosing_ what the new normal would be. Or to put it differently, as I did in another thread: Sure the GOP will “collapse” but that’s because for 4 years now it’s been a skinsuit hollowed out by MAGA from the inside. MAGA will shed the skin, inherit the memories, voters, and war chest of the Republicans, and stand up in it’s place. It’s likely not going away, and may end up stronger than ever. Which, as you suggest, means we’re likely stuck for the forseeable future of various degrees of cold/tepid/warm civil war. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/306 "2024-02-26T03:04:15Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > By wrong lesson, I meant that you look to the positive, local steps and postulate that a GOP collapse is likely whether it be by losing to Biden or by the fat cats deserting him. I meant that I think we will do well in the November election. > [@](#): > > Instead, the GOP is leaning that after years of slowly losing, it’s better to break the system than adapt. Which was what they said they were going to do after the Obama/Romney post-mortem, but they got Trump instead. And as pointed out repeatedly, sure, maybe they figured they could work around Trump in 2016, but staying craven in 2020 was _chosing_ what the new normal would be. Yep, they gave into the nazis. > [@](#): > > Sure the GOP will “collapse” but that’s because for 4 years now it’s been a skinsuit hollowed out by MAGA from the inside. MAGA will shed the skin, inherit the memories, voters, and war chest of the Republicans, and stand up in it’s place. It’s likely not going away, and may end up stronger than ever. Which, as you suggest, means we’re likely stuck for the forseeable future of various degrees of cold/tepid/warm civil war. We definitely have a long fight ahead of us. They are not going to stop until either they take total power as Hitler did or are crushingly defeated. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/307 "2024-02-26T10:39:32Z")
Also, Trump has Jesus on his side now. Do you wanna be the one voting against Jesus? (By Jesus I mean Christian Nationalism.) ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/308 "2024-02-26T11:39:50Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Also, Trump has Jesus on his side now. Do you wanna be the one voting against Jesus? It’s disappointing that Jesus, who was famously oppositional to political authorities of any stripe, has flip-flopped like this. I had thought better of Him. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/309 "2024-02-26T16:27:57Z")
Trump [called his wife “Mercedes”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v2BnB6jn2g) at CPAC. That’s like, not normal, guys… Hilarious comment on the video: > [@](#): > > It’s an easy mistake to make. One is a European import that is really nothing more than an uncomfortable high maintenance status symbol which he hasn’t rode in years, and the other is a car. Also, nice rundown on how Trump is gonna give the RNC the shakedown: > **[Leaderless, Rudderless, Broke and Disorganized](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/26/2225863/-Leaderless-Rudderless-Broke-and-Disorganized?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > By David Glenn Cox Another day and another victory for Donald Trump and another defeat for the Republican Party. South Carolina graciously answering the age-old question; just how stupid can one really be? The bean counters cringe as the full... This whole thing is about to implode… hence my post! ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/310 "2024-02-26T16:47:23Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Also, nice rundown on how Trump is gonna give the RNC the shakedown: > > [Leaderless, Rudderless, Broke and Disorganized](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/26/2225863/-Leaderless-Rudderless-Broke-and-Disorganized?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web) > > This whole thing is about to implode… hence my post ! While the piece leans very hard left, I did like this line: > It’s bold decision making like that, which encourages financial contributors to stay home. Firstly, they don’t believe Trump can win. **Trump didn’t win last time and he’s less popular now.** Yeah, it’s an opinion piece … so the author doesn’t need to show his work. Still … I’d be interested in knowing why Biden is behind Trump in so many (not to say “all”) head-to-head polls. How might the author answer that question? ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/311 "2024-02-26T18:11:31Z")
Man, I hope that article is right. I’ll be very happy to chant, “@Aeschines was right! All hail Aeschines!” ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/312 "2024-02-26T18:54:38Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up against Trump in head-to-head. In a 5-way race, Biden is up by 2 points, making that a statistical deadheat: And that matters how when they are running for EVs and Biden gets 98% of the California vote? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/313 "2024-02-26T20:00:34Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Trump [called his wife “Mercedes”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v2BnB6jn2g) at CPAC. > > That’s like, not normal, guys… This is probably wrong. Mercedes Schlapp served in the Trump administration and is an organizer of CPAC who was present during that speech. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/314 "2024-02-26T20:00:41Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > And that matters how when they are running for EVs and Biden gets 98% of the California vote? At this point, none of the polls are considering EVs (Electoral Votes – I had to think twice about that acronym, since I’d just been reading one of the electric vehicle threads) but few of them do anyway, even close to the election. At any rate, no way Biden gets 98% of the California vote. In 2020, Trump got more votes in California than he did in Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/315 "2024-02-26T20:04:26Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > BUT, the lesson Republicans learned was not to mitigate the Madness, but to cheat _harder_. So they took the cheating One Step Beyond. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/316 "2024-02-26T20:07:16Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > At this point, none of the polls are considering EVs (Electoral Votes – I had to think twice about that acronym, since I’d just been reading one of the electric vehicle threads) but few of them do anyway, even close to the election. At any rate, no way Biden gets 98% of the California vote. I’m just bringing that point up because of the flaw in Clinton’s 2016 campaign that focused more on popular votes than electoral votes. Also, EV’s are not proportional because of smaller states outweighing the larger ones. Oh and winner take all throws it off as well. I say all this to point out any poll that looks at the nation as a whole is pretty much worthless. If it weren’t we’d have Presidents Tilden, Gore and Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/317 "2024-02-26T21:23:17Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > So they took the cheating One Step Beyond. ![](https://media.giphy.com/media/60FwidZG6R7Mc/giphy.gif?cid=790b7611wbubwnnnbqh7h6sfimujsmn47boqmbr3qip5f2n8&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/318 "2024-02-26T21:33:49Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > So they took the cheating One Step Beyond. “We control the horizontal, we control the vertical…” Oh wait, I guess that was Outer Limits… ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/319 "2024-02-26T21:39:57Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Still … I’d be interested in knowing why Biden is behind Trump in so many (not to say “all”) head-to-head polls. How might the author answer that question? The conventional wisdom on polls right now is that a significant percentage of those who are asked are imagining their ideal candidate getting the nomination instead of the clear forerunners, and this affects Biden more than Trump at this point. Once the nominations are set, the polls will look different. Personally, I think the polls have even less value at this point than the above logic would imply. Biden has the disadvantage of being old and having to own his record, good and bad (though it is mostly good). Trump has nothing to offer that he didn’t in 2020 except election denial, insurrection, dementia, poverty, and many, many indictments. I simply don’t believe it’s possible for him to win now when he lost in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/320 "2024-02-26T21:51:12Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I simply don’t believe it’s possible for him to win now when he lost in 2020. It shouldn’t be. But then again your predictions about the Rs moving on from him are what _should_ have been happening 1/21/21 with no hesitation on anyone’s part. Yet here we are 3 years later. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=17)