# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/321 "2024-02-26T21:51:43Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The conventional wisdom on polls right now is that a significant percentage of those who are asked are imagining their ideal candidate getting the nomination instead of the clear forerunners, and this affects Biden more than Trump at this point. Once the nominations are set, the polls will look different. This makes a lot of sense to me: > [@The anti-Trump resistance has become exhausted](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-trump-resistance-has-become-exhausted/997846/129): > > I think the bolded is generally true right now across the U.S. – but for the sake of precision, let’s note that this article is specific to Michigan voters. They’re a swing state, of course, so what’s happening in Michigan is important to watch. An aside: I believe that the “not looking forward to Biden-Trump II” factor has been a BIG confounder in head-to-head polls attempting to get an over-the-horizon view at November’s general election. Some respondents are doubtlessly giving “protest answ… EDIT: I just wish there was something a little firmer to grasp onto regarding this particular confounder. EDIT2: Maybe Nikki Haley’s support among _Republican_ voters in the primaries to date (as opposed to cross-primary-voting Democratic voters) is at least an oblique view on that potential “something firmer”. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/322 "2024-02-26T22:13:13Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Also, nice rundown on how Trump is gonna give the RNC the shakedown: Let the shakedown begin. > **[RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel announces resignation after Trump criticism](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-resignation-rcna137347)** > > Former President Donald Trump has already endorsed a new slate of leaders at the Republican National Committee ahead of the general election. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/323 "2024-02-26T22:17:58Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Let the shakedown begin. > [RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel announces her resignation](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-resignation-rcna137347) Apparently he must be the nominee before they start paying his legal bills… ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/324 "2024-02-26T22:24:54Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > > [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > > > Let the shakedown begin. > > [RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel announces her resignation](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-resignation-rcna137347) > > Apparently he must be the nominee before they start paying his legal bills… A sneaky-good reason for Haley to remain in the primaries – even if she’s relegating to showing up at random coffee shops and filming herself chatting with locals and uploading all that to social media. Who needs cash? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/325 "2024-02-26T23:26:56Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > I’m just bringing that point up because of the flaw in Clinton’s 2016 campaign that focused more on popular votes than electoral votes. This didn’t actually happen. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/326 "2024-02-27T00:53:08Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > A sneaky-good reason for Haley to remain in the primaries – even if she’s relegating to showing up at random coffee shops and filming herself chatting with locals and uploading all that to social media. Who needs cash? Many people, big strong people with tears in their eyes, have come up to me, telling me, “Trump hates Nikki Haley becaue so long as she’s in the race he’s got to spend money he doesn’t have.” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/327 "2024-02-27T01:39:59Z")
Seriously?! Umm… cry me a river… ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/328 "2024-02-27T02:04:25Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > This didn’t actually happen. Must of imagined her campaigning in California and not Michigan during the closing days. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/329 "2024-02-27T02:19:51Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Must of imagined her campaigning in California and not Michigan during the closing days. I’m proud of you for being able to admit this. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/330 "2024-02-27T02:23:39Z")
Guess I should have used the [sarcasm] tag. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/331 "2024-02-27T02:37:14Z")
Maybe you meant it as sarcasm, but you posted the truth. Clinton gave a speech at a rally in Detroit, MI on November 4, 2016. Clinton gave a speech at a rally in Allendale, MI (outside Grand Rapids) on November 7, 2016. The Clinton campaign held no public events in California in November, 2016. If you remember it differently you must have imagined it. Cite: [2016 Presidential Candidate General Election Events Tracker (maintained by FairVote) - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY/edit#gid=0) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/332 "2024-02-27T16:03:00Z")
_USA Today_ is calling the SC primary result a “5-alarm fire” for Trump: > **[Nikki Haley's 40% in South Carolina: A crushing loss for her or a '5-alarm...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/26/nikki-haley-south-carolina-donald-trump/72750733007/)** > > A Fox News survey of South Carolina Republican primary voters found that 6-in-10 Haley voters would not support Trump in the general election The important point here is that the media is beginning to, you know, actually report negative things about this slob. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/333 "2024-02-27T16:30:20Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The important point here is that the media is beginning to, you know, actually report negative things about this slob. This past Sunday 2/25, CNN broadcast a round table to discuss the exact issues brought up in the _USA Today_ piece you linked. Seated at the center of the table were host Anderson Cooper and, to his immediate left, former Trump White House official Alyssa Farah Griffin. Griffin is quoted at length in the _USA Today_ piece. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/FmXiYsUXvIo/maxresdefault.jpg "Ex-Trump aide: Haley's South Carolina numbers are a 'five alarm fire' for GOP and Trump") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmXiYsUXvIo) It’s a six-minute video that the house may take or leave as they see fit. It covers the same ground as the _USA Today_ link except also adding some comments from left-leaning commentators Audie Cornish, Van Jones, and Bakari Sellers. Sellers and Cornish disagreed whether or not Haley’s 2024 showing vs Trump can be compared to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 showing vs Hilary Clinton – Cornish making the point that Sanders had diehard _supporters_ in his corner while Haley has a coalition of a few supporters alongside a large cohort of never-Trumpists. In the end, Sellers makes the point: “_People are rejecting Donald Trump … How do I know that? Haley got 38-point-something [percent of the vote]_”. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/334 "2024-02-27T18:10:31Z")
I’ll say this: the longer this thread goes on, the more of a genius the OP will look like if this somehow happens. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/335 "2024-02-27T18:23:49Z")
Ha, nice! So a newspaper piece gets substantially magnified by a TV piece. Keep it coming!!! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/336 "2024-02-27T18:53:33Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > In the end, Sellers makes the point: “_People are rejecting Donald Trump … How do I know that? Haley got 38-point-something [percent of the vote]_”. Well, people are rejecting trump as their idea of the ideal R party cadidate. But those people are still voting in the R party primary which signals their overall political intent. (Yes, yes, SC has open primaries and some of that 40% is D’s gleefully throwing strategic shade on trump). Of the folks who voted in teh R primary (and are not just hardcore D’s messing with the R primary), they have a very high likelihood of voting for the R nominee solely on the strength of that all-important (R) after their name. You know, trump. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/337 "2024-02-27T19:54:58Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Of the folks who voted in teh R primary (and are not just hardcore D’s messing with the R primary), they have **a very high likelihood of voting for the R nominee** solely on the strength of that all-important (R) after their name. You know, trump. That’s OK – so long as it is a “very high likelihood” versus “a certainty”. In a state like South Carolina, Trump can lose a significant level of support from his 2020 number and still win the state. That’s not true in swing states – really, he needs to _gain_ support over 2020 numbers in some swing states, not merely tread water. EDIT: This is regarding Trump’s chances in the general election, not in the primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/338 "2024-02-27T20:48:02Z")
From Aeschines’s USA Today cite: " A [Fox News Voter Analysis survey](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-voter-analysis-trump-bests-haley-her-home-state) of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters also found that 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) would not support Trump in the general election if he were the GOP nominee." Unless these people are lying, then no, it isn’t a given that every Republican primary voter will vote for Trump in Novemeber if he is the candidate. She got ~40%. 60 percent of her 40 percent of the vote is 24 percent, so about 1/4 of the voters in the SC GOP primary are saying that they won’t vote for Trump. That, I don’t think, can just be hand waved away. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/339 "2024-02-27T21:00:21Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > From Aeschines’s USA Today cite: > > " A [Fox News Voter Analysis survey](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-voter-analysis-trump-bests-haley-her-home-state) of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters also found that 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) would not support Trump in the general election if he were the GOP nominee." > > Unless these people are lying, then no, it isn’t a given that every Republican primary voter will vote for Trump in Novemeber if he is the candidate. She got ~40%. 60 percent of her 40 percent of the vote is 24 percent, so about 1/4 of the voters in the SC GOP primary are saying that they won’t vote for Trump. That, I don’t think, can just be hand waved away . I’ll be interested to see how these same factors break down for Michigan today. Weirdly, only one swing state is having their primary on Super Tuesday (North Carolina). We’ll have to wait past Super Tuesday to get hints about how Republican non-Trump supporters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia may vote in the general. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/340 "2024-02-27T23:23:57Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Ha, nice! So a newspaper piece gets substantially magnified by a TV piece. Keep it coming!!! Except the CNN piece ran on Sunday and the _USA Today_ piece ran on Monday. Who’s amplifying who? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=18)