# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/341 "2024-02-28T01:05:14Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > _USA Today_ is calling the SC primary result a “5-alarm fire” for Trump: Use of intensifiers like “5-alarm fire,” in political commentary, is extremely, far and away, overdone 😄 In November, the GOP nominee will lose millions who voted in Republican primaries and caucuses. In November, the Democratic nominee will lose millions who voted in Democratic primaries and caucuses. This has always happened since primary elections became the normal way to select the nominee. So long as Trump is within hailing distance of a November popular vote victory, as horse race polls suggest he is, millions of Republicans disapproving of him is no more than an interesting factoid. Also, polls that ask if you would ever vote for someone, without specifying the alternative, are suspect. Remember the poll that said 60 percent of voters would never vote for a socialist? Does anyone really believe Trump would therefore have gotten at least 60 percent of the popular vote against Bernie Sanders? I think that Sanders using the word socialist was a political mistake, but, in our polarized era, no major party nomination is going to result ina 5-alarm landslide. As for Trump doing worse in the primaries than an incumbent would, yes, that’s true. It also is true that he isn’t exactly an incumbent. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/342 "2024-02-28T01:17:57Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > This has always happened since primary elections became the normal way to select the nominee Biden won 19,000,000 of 36,000,000 votes in the 2020 Dem primary and won the general with 81m votes. Gonna demand a cite on “the nominee (always) loses millions of votes between the primary and the general” (paraphrased). ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/343 "2024-02-28T01:41:09Z")
The paraphrase, in the post immediately above, is not exactly what I wrote. Beyond that, ticket splitters exist among primary voters – I’ve been one – but I admit to making a statistical claim without data in hand, and without willingness to go back and prove it. Given [Operation Chaos](https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/politics/south-carolina-democratic-primary-gop-movement/index.html), 2020 should be a gimme. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/344 "2024-02-28T14:48:18Z")
Do you really think this election is exactly the same as every other election before it? We’ve never had an attempted coup before for one thing. I think you are being naive to think that conventional wisdom is all we need to predict November. There is not much conventional about this current situation. By the way, going back to ongoing Trump poll underperformance, he was projected to take Michigan by 56 points. He only won by 41 points. 30 to 40 percent of the party is against him and continues to vote against him even though it is clear at this time that he will get the delegates needed to clinch. You can assume that these voters will change their minds on him again before November, but that also ignores that MAGA is actively purging these same people from their ranks. This is what happens with cults, the purity tests get more and more strict, they threaten and bully and eventually kick those out that won’t stay 100% loyal. They distill themselves down to the most fanatical getting more and more extreme. We are seeing this happen in real time, right in front of us. To ignore all of this and rely on conventional election wisdom seems … unwise to me. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/345 "2024-02-28T15:25:49Z")
We have the thread “Anti-Trump resistance has become exhausted”, but I think it’s more accurate to say “Pro-Trump enthusiasm has waned”. Many Republicans are exhausted by Trump just as much as we are. His most strident supporters shout louder to cover for his dropping support. I’m not sure how much this will affect the primaries or the general election. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/346 "2024-02-28T17:44:37Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > This is what happens with cults, the purity tests get more and more strict, they threaten and bully and eventually kick those out that won’t stay 100% loyal. They can only hope they are kicked out. In it’s most extreme, you’ll get purges of the “disloyal” amongst themselves. Sort of like the [1978 Eastern Zone purge in Cambodia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Zone_massacres). ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2024, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/347 "2024-03-01T20:26:43Z")
More on Trump’s rapidly deteriorating mental state: > **["Like someone pulled the metaphorical plug": Dr. John Gartner on Trump's...](https://www.salon.com/2024/03/01/like-someone-pulled-the-metaphorical-plug-dr-john-gartner-on-accelerating-dementia/)** > > "Trump looks blank, stops in mid-sentence (or mid-word), his jaw goes a little slack" ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/348 "2024-03-04T01:44:02Z")
Trump loses first primary to Haley, 62% to 33%. > **[Nikki Haley gets first 2024 win in the Washington, D.C., GOP primary](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/haley-wins-republican-primary-washington-dc-rcna140421)** > > Haley took the primary in the nation's capital, NBC News projects. It was one of Trump's weakest contests during his first run in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/349 "2024-03-04T01:48:23Z")
Huh. Well…good for her? As icky as that is to say. On that same page-Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are supporting her, which means…something. Though I’m sure they’ll quicky pivot to supporting him when he wins. > **[Lisa Murkowski says she ‘could not’ vote for Trump or Biden in 2024](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/lisa-murkowski-says-not-vote-trump-biden-2024-rcna141551)** > > The Alaska senator previously admitted that she also didn’t vote for former President Donald Trump in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/350 "2024-03-04T02:42:33Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Trump loses first primary to Haley, 62% to 33%. Honestly, “the swamp” choosing Haley over Trump probably helps him more than it hurts him. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/351 "2024-03-04T03:36:04Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Trump loses first primary to Haley, 62% to 33%. Just a reminder, D.C. voted 92% for Biden in 2020 and 91% for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Heck, it even gave Mondale 85% of the vote in 1984. Not exactly Trump country. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/352 "2024-03-04T05:31:58Z")
Total turnout for the Republican primary was 2,000 voters, out of 464,000 registered voters in DC. I’m guessing that 2,000 is largely lobbyists, Georgetown economics professors and Republican congressional staffers who couldn’t afford to move out to the suburbs. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/353 "2024-03-04T06:23:28Z")
I bet Trump is still going to say that Haley cheated. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2024, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/354 "2024-03-04T18:47:02Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > that 2,000 is largely lobbyists, Georgetown economics professors and Republican congressional staffers Who know DJT will be looking at taking revenge for having “failed” him in his first term. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2024, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/355 "2024-03-05T03:35:07Z")
It’s not getting better: > **["He looks lost": Alarm after Trump's "mind blanks out" repeatedly during speech](https://www.salon.com/2024/03/04/he-looks-lost-alarm-after-mind-blanks-out-repeatedly-during-speech/)** > > "It is just so pathetic and sad,” MSNBC host Joe Scarborough says after Trump confuses Biden and Obama — again. I’m glad the media is playing this up. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2024, 11:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/356 "2024-03-05T11:14:59Z")
The man has an awful lot on his mind right now. ---
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2024, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/357 "2024-03-05T11:51:54Z")
I think that is overly generous. Let us say he has a lot on his mind, rather. Sure, most of it is awful, but I don’t think his mind can expand to the point that he could actually have “an awful lot”. Even “a lot” seems a stretch, but I am generous. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/358 "2024-03-06T10:43:02Z")
_None_ of this matters. Republicans would back Brain Dead Hitler Jr. if they thought that he would win and/or piss off what used to be political rivals but are now genuinely thought of as enemies. They are actually relieved to dump the veneer of cooperation and civility that they used to wear publicly. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/359 "2024-03-06T15:45:32Z")
Haley drops out and McConnell endorses Trump. It’s all coming up Donald this morning. . . ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/360 "2024-03-07T01:56:12Z")
I guess this number hasn’t changed but a recent poll found that 70% of Rs still think the election we was stolen. That really tells you all you need to know about the Republican party of today. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=19)