# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/21 "2024-01-29T20:58:22Z")
So do you think Trump has a chance in the General? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/22 "2024-01-29T21:02:11Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > The GOP must be rebuilt from the ground up by people who have actually read, understand and care about the Constitution. And following rules. And obeying norms. To quote a famous doctor, **He’s dead, Jim.** Most non-MAGAs are purged by now, and the cruel and crazy quotient is too high for the GOP to rebuild with its current people. Moreover, Trump has permanently tainted the brand. I don’t think a reanimation is possible. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/23 "2024-01-29T21:02:46Z")
Absolutely. Right now, I’m counting on him to win. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/24 "2024-01-29T21:04:08Z")
Not, I hope, as in wanting him to win! ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/25 "2024-01-29T21:04:34Z")
Was gonna change it. I mean expecting. If I had to bet $1000 today, I’d put it on him. Now, that’s a fine bet either way for me: I win, I’m up a grand. I lose, I’m up a president actually want. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/26 "2024-01-29T21:07:52Z")
Very well. I gave six reasons why I don’t think such an expectation is warranted. Further, Trump already lost to Biden–and that was before he denied the election and, you know, fomented an insurrection. I don’t see any reason why his chances would be better now than in 2020. I can see arguing that it will be a close run thing, but I can’t see “expecting.” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/27 "2024-01-29T21:08:56Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > If I had to bet $1000 today, I’d put it on him. Now, that’s a fine bet either way for me: I win, I’m up a grand. I lose, I’m up a president actually want. Donate the grand to the Biden campaign! ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/28 "2024-01-29T21:21:54Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > > [@Aeschines](#): > > > > Oops, should be CW! > > All right, I’m dumb. What does CW mean? It’s OK to write out what you mean. There are no SDMB rules that you must use a potentially unrecognized initialism. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/29 "2024-01-29T21:26:17Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I actually dread a Haley candidacy more than a Trump one You’re not serious, surely. Or by “candidacy” do you just mean that you think Trump has no chance of winning and she does? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/30 "2024-01-29T21:28:24Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > It’s **OK** to write out what you mean. There are no **SDMB** rules that you must use a potentially unrecognized initialism. (Emphasis added.) What do these mean?! j/k ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/31 "2024-01-29T21:30:46Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Most non-MAGAs are purged by now, and the cruel and crazy quotient is too high for the GOP to rebuild with its current people. This. The current Republican office-holders are not just crazy enough to drive off the cliff–it’s their goal! Listen to their words; they don’t _want_ to be a majority party with governing responsibilities. They to want whine and rage about everything, so they can keep grifting their base. It’s much easier for them to _not_ be in power, and letting Trump be their nominee is perfect for that. Remember 2016: their plan was never to _win_. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/32 "2024-01-29T21:33:33Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Or by “candidacy” do you just mean that you think Trump has no chance of winning and she does? It’s this. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/33 "2024-01-29T21:35:15Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > If I had to bet $1000 today, I’d put it on him. I agree with you. I think Trump is the nominee and wins. Trump motivates the opposition vote, yes, but Biden is being seriously damaged in the younger demographic re Israel. Whether you think they’re right or wrong (not arguing either way, that’s a massive hijack), the chatter among the under-35s is _very_ negative on Biden’s performance, and that will impact turnout. And Biden can’t beat Trump without the same full court turnout as before. It’ll be close, but Trump will be reelected. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/34 "2024-01-29T21:45:51Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > I agree with you. I think Trump is the nominee and wins. > > Trump motivates the opposition vote, yes, but Biden is being seriously damaged in the younger demographic re Israel. > > … > > It’ll be close, but Trump will be reelected. The last sentence is self-contradictory: if you think it will be close thus far from the election, then there is no reason to come down on either side. I think any Democrat who is making arguments like the above is in the mindset of fearing the worst in order to prepare for such an outcome psychologically, but that doesn’t make for good prognostication. Citing one issue, such as Israel, as what will do Biden in doesn’t make sense. At lot can change with any one issue before the election. My argument for Biden’s victory is simple: He beat Trump the last time, and Trump has only done a ton of evil and crazy shit since then that has hurt him. Further, Trump is getting worse by the day. An issue here and a poll there is not enough to overcome this argument, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/35 "2024-01-29T21:51:17Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > The current Republican office-holders are not just crazy enough to drive off the cliff–it’s their goal! They have to get elected though, and even a minority party has a critical mass that it can’t afford to lose. The grift you correctly cite requires the party always to be _on the verge_ of winning–but not quite. Take the House here, take the Senate there, win the presidency now and then while always preferring a divided government. > [@](#): > > Listen to their words; they don’t _want_ to be a majority party with governing responsibilities. They to want whine and rage about everything, so they can keep grifting their base. It’s much easier for them to _not_ be in power, and letting Trump be their nominee is perfect for that. Remember 2016: their plan was never to _win_. I think this _was_ the plan until Trump became president. MAGA, however, wants actual authoritarian control over the country. The game has changed. (Of course, when MAGA is not in control, the grift will continue.) ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/36 "2024-01-29T21:54:57Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Exactly, but I think he has enough juice to create an actual schism rather than just playing spoiler. I think a MAGA party, led by a vindictive Trump, could actually win a couple of seats in the house and maybe do some real damage to the GOP’s ground game in deep red territory. This is the exact reason folks like Mitch McConnel who reeled at the events of January 6th backed off rather quickly. Trump threatened to start a third party and the Republicans were too cowardly to fight him. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/37 "2024-01-29T21:57:24Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > MAGA, however, wants actual authoritarian control over the country. Maaaaybe. I mean yes, obviously, of course they’d love that. But Marjorie Taylor Greene, as the archetypal example, is clearly having the time of her life. I don’t think she really gives a particular shit about whether or not she gets where she’s going. She’s just enjoying the ride. The folks doing stuff like Project 2025 aren’t MAGA. They’re entrenched political operatives who are running the same playbook they’ve been running for decades. Consolidate power in the executive branch, kill off social programs, limit the wrong kinds of personal freedoms, make the rich richer. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/38 "2024-01-29T22:02:30Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > The folks doing stuff like Project 2025 aren’t MAGA. They’re entrenched political operatives who are running the same playbook they’ve been running for decades. Consolidate power in the executive branch, kill off social programs, limit the wrong kinds of personal freedoms, make the rich richer. This is such an important point. Haley is part of this movement, and that’s why she scares me so much. Next to MAGA, she looks “acceptable” – but in reality, the Republican Party used Trump to further their agenda more than Trump used the Republican Party to further his. Haley would simply be the next logical step in their efforts. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/39 "2024-01-29T22:04:39Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I mean yes, obviously, of course they’d love that. MAGA voters want authoritarian control… as you point out, most of the GOP pols just want to grift. Of course, they would not oppose Dictator Trump. They are mostly just spinless enablers, but a certain number of them are more than that. > [@](#): > > But Marjorie Taylor Greene, as the archetypal example, is clearly having the time of her life. I don’t think she really gives a particular shit about whether or not she gets where she’s going. She’s just enjoying the ride. Yup, having fun with the crazy. > [@](#): > > The folks doing stuff like Project 2025 aren’t MAGA. They’re entrenched political operatives who are running the same playbook they’ve been running for decades. Consolidate power in the executive branch, kill off social programs, limit the wrong kinds of personal freedoms, make the rich richer. Right, but they are pretty synergistic with MAGA (not that you said otherwise). ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/40 "2024-01-29T22:04:52Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think this _was_ the plan until Trump became president. MAGA, however, wants actual authoritarian control over the country. The game has changed. (Of course, when MAGA is not in control, the grift will continue.) I think that was the 2020 plan, but they’ve moved on. Look at what the “Freedom” Caucus is doing. It’s the perfect minority-party set up. They’re happy to let the rest of the Republican party burn. Their behavior works better when there’s no inconvenient and boring responsibility to run the government. The rest of us can’t take this for granted, of course. We have to mobilize, not just in blue states, but in every state. Even the red ones. But I don’t think they’re actually trying to take over, but instead are entrenching themselves. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=3)