# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/461 "2024-03-18T21:59:49Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > And the result? "“Nothing to see here, he’s perfectly fine, don’t believe your own lying eyes.” And that was it. Though he is stepping down from leadership, so that’s something. He is clearly old and sick, but he is not ranting and raving and showing off his dementia as Trump is. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/462 "2024-03-18T22:04:03Z")
Trump may die before the election? That isn’t a sound argument - That is just a desperate wish. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/463 "2024-03-18T22:22:08Z")
It’s one possibility in the “ball of shit,” which keeps getting bigger and bigger… ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/464 "2024-03-18T22:38:57Z")
Sorry, zero points for you if he drops dead. 🙂 Your only concrete prediction that wasn’t obvious from the beginning is that a “cabal” of GOP operatives will somehow force Trump out and keep him off the ballot. > [@Aeschines](#): > > Another factor in favor of my argument that is new since I wrote the OP is that the GOP in the House in is complete disarray. This deeply undermines your argument. There needs to be organization in the GOP for them to, you know, organize and boot him out. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/465 "2024-03-18T22:50:17Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Sorry, zero points for you if he drops dead. 🙂 Your only concrete prediction that wasn’t obvious from the beginning is that a “cabal” of GOP operatives will somehow force Trump out and keep him off the ballot. Incorrect! My point #5: **Trump looks like dogshit (even for Trump). His health is failing fast. Death or incapacity by the time of the convention no longer seem like distant possibilities.** > [@Aeschines](#): > > This deeply undermines your argument. There needs to be organization in the GOP for them to, you know, organize and boot him out. Wrong again! My step #4: **A cabal arises within the GOP to push Trump out by any means. The may promise open civil war in the GOP if Trump is the nominee.** I said a “cabal”–not the entire GOP. The fracturing we are seeing the GOP right now makes the arising of such a cabal more likely, not less. And “open civil war” is exactly what we are seeing right now. The scene has been set for a total implosion. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/466 "2024-03-18T23:07:12Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Incorrect! My point #5: Was not one of your “predictions,” but was categorized (correctly) as simple observations made by lots of people. > [@Aeschines](#): > > The fracturing we are seeing the GOP right now makes the arising of such a cabal more likely, not less As has been pointed out repeatedly, there is almost no mechanism to remove Trump from the ballot, and whatever narrow pathway existed was washed away when Trump purged the RNC. The chaos only benefits him. You can’t pull the levers of power when a mob has destroyed the entire machine. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/467 "2024-03-18T23:28:49Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Was not one of your “predictions,” but was categorized (correctly) as simple observations made by lots of people. My major prediction is that he won’t be the nominee. If that’s because he is dead or incapacitated, I totally get those points! > [@](#): > > As has been pointed out repeatedly, there is almost no mechanism to remove Trump from the ballot, and whatever narrow pathway existed was washed away when Trump purged the RNC. The chaos only benefits him. > > You can’t pull the levers of power when a mob has destroyed the entire machine. Ya-knoo… you do have a point here. I disagree only with “the chaos only benefits him” part. It doesn’t. It certainly doesn’t help him become the nominee _more_, and it certainly isn’t of benefit in the general election. I think the whole GOP is about to go through a complete, almost unimaginable implosion that, by the convention, will leave Trump and the RNC totally broke and clearly on the path to losing in November. I still think the “ball of shit” will take Trump out as the nominee by the time of the convention. Everything is worse for him than ever, basically, and the GOP itself looks much sicker than when I wrote the OP. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/468 "2024-03-18T23:37:19Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > My major prediction is that he won’t be the nominee. If that’s because he is dead or incapacitated, I totally get those points! If a shadow cabal rises from the chaotic nonsense of the GOP, boots Trump, and installs their own non-MAGA representative to take control of the party, I will give you full credit for prognostication. If Trump dies between now and November, I will give you full credit for winning a coin flip. ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/469 "2024-03-19T00:07:32Z")
Go, ball of shit! 😁 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/470 "2024-03-19T00:12:22Z")
This seems to be a whole lot of effort to convince us that we shouldn’t worry about Trump at all…and that is just damn dangerous a road to go down, especially considering how magnificently that backfired before. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/471 "2024-03-19T00:13:34Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > If Trump dies between now and November, I will give you full credit for winning a coin flip. So 50/50 odds? Not bad! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/472 "2024-03-19T00:17:29Z")
Better than Vegas! ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/473 "2024-03-19T00:19:25Z")
No, the odds are NOT 50/50 that Trump will die before taking office. Besides, your claim isn’t that he won’t take office-Your claim is that he won’t even be the Republican nominee. The Republican National Convention is July 15-18, so whatever far-fetched miracle you are hoping for has to happen on or before the 18th of July. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/474 "2024-03-19T00:20:04Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > This seems to be a whole lot of effort to convince us that we shouldn’t worry about Trump at all…and that is just damn dangerous a road to go down, especially considering how magnificently that backfired before. Don’t think so. I say above: **Take away Trump, and these dumb mutherfuckers aren’t just going to go away. We have a cultural and political wreck that will take a generation to repair–maybe longer.** I don’t think Trump will get the nomination. If he does, I don’t think he will win, but we need to fight like holy hell against him. If he does win, we need to plan and implement, not the Resistance, but the Revolution. If Biden wins, we need the Revolution anyway… preferably in a form as peaceful as possible. Our country is in trouble, and 30% of the population have gone mad. Nothing about this is easy. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/475 "2024-03-19T00:21:28Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I don’t think Trump will get the nomination. Say _what??_ ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/476 "2024-03-19T00:22:47Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > No, the odds are NOT 50/50 that Trump will die before taking office. I agree. > [@](#): > > Besides, your claim isn’t that he won’t take office-Your claim is that he won’t even be the Republican nominee. He will also not be the nominee if he dies before the election. > [@](#): > > The Republican National Convention is July 15-18, so whatever far-fetched miracle you are hoping for has to happen on or before the 18th of July. Mark my words! If I am wrong, I will come back into this thread and say, “I was wrong.” ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/477 "2024-03-19T00:23:39Z")
> [@Dung\_Beetle](#): > > Go, ball of shit! 😁 It’s about time a topic aligned with your name. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/478 "2024-03-19T00:24:13Z")
LMFAO! 3x ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/479 "2024-03-19T01:02:07Z")
Right? I couldn’t let it pass. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2024, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/480 "2024-03-19T01:04:41Z")
> [@Dung\_Beetle](#): > > I couldn’t let it pass. Pun intended?! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=25)