# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/541 "2024-03-21T23:23:11Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Even if Trump’s candidacy leads to a blue tsunami, the GOP can live with that. They suffered one in 2008 and came back strong just two years later. 2008 is ancient history. MAGA didn’t even exist then. > [@](#): > > But stopping Trump from being the candidate (if it could be done at all) would fracture the party like never before. It could be fatal. They’d rather take the L and move on than risk permanent damage. Wait a sec… 1. The party is already fractured like never before. 2. It’s fatal. 3. The damage is permanent. At best (for itself and not for the country), the GOP becomes a coherent fascist party. The old Reagan GOP is already deceased. What remains is in chaos. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/542 "2024-03-21T23:28:57Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > By “fracture[d] … like never before,” I meant a party stripped of significant power and lacking the ability to regain it. > > It’s like the difference between a gas-guzzling, smoke-spewing pickup truck roaring down the highway, and that same truck with a few blown rods, no transmission and four flat tires. That is a funny metaphor. 🙂 Yeah, but “fractured” isn’t the right word. The Dum-Dums of our country still think an R is an R, even if it’s really become an F for Fascist, and many of them will keep voting R until they die. Such is the power of branding and inertia (mental, social, etc.). But the GOP _is_ literally fractured now, and that smoke-spewing pickup, although able to roar, is about to fly off the highway and flip over in a ditch! ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/543 "2024-03-21T23:30:06Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > He is broke, sick, and demented. The times have changed. For those who are broke, sick, demented, and have a history of wielding great power to willingly give it up, more than times would have to change. Human nature would have to change. P.S. This wasn’t meant to concede that Trump can be diagnosed with dementia based on publicly available information. I’m accepting the premise for sake of argument. But I also think that if Trump really does have moderate dementia, that isn’t stopping him from realizing that winning the presidency is his best chance to avoid prison. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/544 "2024-03-21T23:35:10Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > For those who are broke, sick, demented, and have a history of wielding great power to willingly give it up, more than times would have to change. Human nature would have to change. Very true and well said! The thing is, however, is that he doesn’t hold the presidency right now, and it’s going to take OPM to get it back. Trump, of course, won’t stop feeling entitled to it, but the O’s with the M might not like the looks of the deal this time (and the cite above says they are already giving a lot less). > [@](#): > > But I also think that if Trump really does have moderate dementia, that isn’t stopping him from realizing that winning the presidency is his best chance to avoid prison. Of course, it’s a life or death battle for him. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/545 "2024-03-21T23:57:37Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > At best (for itself and not for the country), the GOP becomes a coherent fascist party. The old Reagan GOP is already deceased. What remains is in chaos. I think there is a very real possiblity of seeing a new party emerge from the corpse of the Republican party. Nothing lasts forever. Just as the Whigs. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/546 "2024-03-21T23:59:25Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Yeah, but “fractured” isn’t the right word. The Dum-Dums of our country still think an R is an R, even if it’s really become an F for Fascist, and many of them will keep voting R until they die. Such is the power of branding and inertia (mental, social, etc.). A lot of them don’t think an R is an R. They think Liz Cheney and Nikki Haley are Democrats. They think anyone who isn’t MAGA, who doesn’t toe the MAGA lies, are RINOS. You can agree with near 100% of the MAGA on the issues, but if you don’t simp for Trump you’re not a Republican in their eyes. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/547 "2024-03-21T23:59:27Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > He is broke, sick, and demented. Yes, donald absolutely is. But the party can’t drop him; he’s purged any serious opposition. For donald and the GOP, “L’État, c’est moi.” And for that, the republicans are going to endure an epic beating in 2024. It is entirely possible that they won’t recover for a generation. And they will absolutely fucking deserve it. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/548 "2024-03-22T00:21:14Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I think there is a very real possiblity of seeing a new party emerge from the corpse of the Republican party. Nothing lasts forever. Just as the Whigs. Of course. Even though I don’t think the R’s have had anything to offer since Bush the Elder, there was a time when the GOP could at least, you know, _govern_ when they were elected. Only having one party that can do so is not healthy for the country. MAGA has so enervated the conservative movement, however, that I can’t image what can replace the GOP. > [@](#): > > A lot of them don’t think an R is an R. They think Liz Cheney and Nikki Haley are Democrats. They think anyone who isn’t MAGA, who doesn’t toe the MAGA lies, are RINOS. You can agree with near 100% of the MAGA on the issues, but if you don’t simp for Trump you’re not a Republican in their eyes. No doubt! I was saying that there a a lot of people in the US, mostly oldsters who remember when an R could equal a reasonable politician or even a good one (e.g., Ike), who think they can trust the R brand and don’t see that it has become MAGA. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/549 "2024-03-22T00:25:42Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > But the party can’t drop him; he’s purged any serious opposition. For donald and the GOP, “L’État, c’est moi.” He’s purged the House and the RNC. There are, however, most certainly a lot of senators and presumably some governors who hate his guts and who could turn on him if they felt confident they could win (i.e., opportunistic cowards). > [@](#): > > And for that, the republicans are going to endure an epic beating in 2024. It is entirely possible that they won’t recover for a generation. It’s lose-lose-lose at this point. Trump getting purged will be a bad loss. Trump not getting purged will be a very bad loss. And Trump winning will trigger a fucking revolution. > [@](#): > > And they will absolutely fucking deserve it. Verily. I will personally piss on the grave of the party. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/550 "2024-03-22T00:30:52Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I think there is a very real possibility of seeing a new party emerge from the corpse of the Republican party. Nothing lasts forever. Just as the Whigs. Agreed, nothing lasts forever. But I don’t see that new party. In 1940, Taft (paleoconservative), Dewey (centrist), and Wilkie (center-left) were all plausible possible Republican nominees. Compared to that, today’s Republicans are highly unified. The reason for disfunction in the House GOP majority is that they have such as tiny majority. As a result, a few uncooperative caucus members can bring down the leader. If they had a normal-sized majority, their caucus would be working normally (even when pursuing abnormal policies). Did Haley get higher percentages, in primaries, than is normal when there is an incumbent of the same party? Yes, but Trump has been out of office for three years, and a large portion of her votes came in open primaries. The Republican Party isn’t falling apart. The Democratic Party isn’t falling apart. They both have the support of approximately half the country, as normal. One party is again about to nominate a wannabe dictator. Unfortunately, that hasn’t led to abnormal levels of intraparty disunity. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/551 "2024-03-22T00:43:15Z")
[quote=“PhillyGuy, post:550, topic:996834, full:true”] > [@Odesio](#): > > In 1940, Taft (paleoconservative), Dewey (centrist), and Wilkie (center-left) were all plausible possible Republican nominees. Compared to that, today’s Republicans are highly unified. Well, I would say that Reagan’s GOP was also much more unified than the GOP as it existed in 1940. It was a weak party. The Democrats held the house from 1933 to 1995 except for two cycles (cite: [https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/jun/25/control-house-and-senate-1900/](https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/jun/25/control-house-and-senate-1900/)). > [@](#): > > The reason for disfunction in the House GOP majority is that they have such as tiny majority. As a result, a few uncooperative caucus members can bring down the leader. If they had a normal-sized majority, their caucus would be working normally (even when pursuing abnormal policies). I don’t think that tells the whole story. They also have crazy MAGA bomb-throwers that Gaetz and MTG causing a lot of trouble. > [@](#): > > Did Haley get higher percentages, in primaries, than is normal when there is an incumbent of the same party? Yes, but Trump has been out of office for three years, and a large portion of her votes came in open primaries. Any analysis I’ve seen online says that it wasn’t just Dems voting for her in open primaries; there are also a lot of disaffected Republicans voting against Trump. > [@](#): > > The Republican Party isn’t falling apart. The Democratic Party isn’t falling apart. They both have the support of approximately half the country, as normal. Nah, c’mon. The GOP is not falling apart in the same way that people on meth benders can feel very energized and productive for days at a time! It’s become the party of fascist crazy dumb mutherfuckers, and it is _not_ sustainable. > [@](#): > > One party is again about to nominate a wannabe dictator. Unfortunately, that hasn’t led to abnormal levels of intraparty disunity. It _has_. A slew of Republicans have quit, and there are many more who are just holding their tongues for now. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/552 "2024-03-22T00:46:40Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The reason for disfunction in the House GOP majority is that they have such as tiny majority. As a result, a few uncooperative caucus members can bring down the leader. If they had a normal-sized majority, their caucus would be working normally (even when pursuing abnormal policies). The Democrats were able to function (get things done) even when they were the ones with a narrow majority, so I don’t think that’s the reason why they’re dysfunctional. The Republicans were on the cusp of a border deal that gave them almost everything they wanted and it fell through not because they thought it was a bad deal or because they only had a narrow majority. It fell through because their Orange Jesus told them to kill it. He told them to kill it because fixing the border problem gave him one less thing to campaign on. The Republicans are not legislators, they are performance artists. They are dysfunction because of internal strife not because they have a narrow majority. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/553 "2024-03-22T00:49:55Z")
Word. “Performance artists” is completely apt. Also a fascist lifestyle brand for rabid whites. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/554 "2024-03-22T01:49:07Z")
Sorry, but you still have it wrong. > He _has_ cost them elections–lost of them. In 2020, he himself lost and he personally lost the Senate for the GOP through his fuckery in Georgia. His fucking around with candidates and the unpopularity of MAGA overall crushed the predicted Red Wave in 2022. Special elections and off-cycle elections have been shit for the GOP. Correct, - He lost in 2020 and they lost the Senate. And yet the GOP continued to support him. There was maybe 48-72 hours after 1/6 where McConnell, Graham, McCarthy and others were acting like they were done with DJT. Yet they all fell in line as soon as they realized how much it would hurt them if they didn’t change their position. - The predicted Red Wave of 2022 didn’t happen but they took control of the House and got rid of the evil witch Pelosi. And the GOP continued to support him. - Special elections and off-cycle elections have been shit for the GOP but not shitty enough to turn the MAGA base against DJT. So the GOP continues to support him. > Some are not already. Ken Buck quit the House, and there has been a flood of GOP retirees over the past few years. There is currently a GOP civil war in the House. - The retirement of Buck, Romney and others isn’t a sign he is losing control of the party - it indicates he is solidifying his control of the party. Must I again mention what has happened at the RNC? - The civil war in the House is mostly because the crazies don’t want any compromise with Biden/Democrats on anything. And yet that’s exactly what Speaker Johnson keeps doing and none of the bomb throwers is willing to throw the bomb and oust Johnson. Maybe they know have another ridiculous election for Speaker would be a lousy idea in the runup to November or maybe it’s some other reason. All I know is it isn’t happening. I think the “civil war” is mostly performative at this point. > They can’t win with their base alone. They have to build new voters beyond what they had in 2020, or they lose again. - I never said they could win with their base alone but the incumbent GOPers know they can’t win **without** the MAGA base. They are assuming the less MAGAtty party members will just go along like they have in past elections. Those voters don’t scare the GOP incumbents for that very reason. The MAGAts terrify people like Johnson, Cruz, et al. This is very possibly a miscalculation on their part and may lead to their loss in November. Until it happens though I don’t think they will see it is coming. > He is broke, sick, and demented. The times have changed. - He’s always lied about his wealth and he’s been demented for years. But yes, times have changed. The main change being he owns & controls the RNC. That will not change before November. Thus, no way he won’t be the nominee. Unless he is dead. I don’t mean sorta kinda dead. I mean Norwegian Blue dead. Dead, dead, dead. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/555 "2024-03-22T01:58:41Z")
I started a companion thread to this one: > [@If Trump suddenly drops out, who do you think will drop back in?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-trump-suddenly-drops-out-who-do-you-think-will-drop-back-in/999177): > > Let us say Trump contracts Sane Cow Disease and drops out. Who do you think will throw their chapeau back in the Republican squared circle? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/556 "2024-03-22T01:59:36Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > who think they can trust the R brand and don’t see that it has become MAGA. They are not aware of what is going on. They simply vote as they would for their favorite team, without realizing that politics is not a team sport. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/557 "2024-03-22T02:03:18Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I mean Norwegian Blue dead. Dead, dead, dead. Even then, as has been pointed out, we may well see a “Weekend at Donnie’s”. He’s not dead! He’s restin’! He’s tired and shagged out after a long squack! THERE! HE MOVED!" “He didn’t move, that was just you, nudging his chair” “Beautiful plumage!” ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/558 "2024-03-22T02:07:47Z")
Yeah, “Oh noes! Dear Leader died on Election Night from all the excitement! Oh well, say hello to President-elect Stefanik/Noem/Rubio!” Or whoever he ends up naming as his Veep. I could see him croaking days before the election and the RNC keeping it quiet so they still get to take over in January. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/559 "2024-03-22T09:21:52Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > He lost in 2020 and they lost the Senate. And yet the GOP continued to support him. There was maybe 48-72 hours after 1/6 where McConnell, Graham, McCarthy and others were acting like they were done with DJT. Yet they all fell in line as soon as they realized how much it would hurt them if they didn’t change their position. This. All this is what I want to know-- WHY?? Lindsey was fucking in tears on Fox News defending him. MTG?? McCarthy, (too many others to list…) Did they not see the upcoming lack of financial support for their own party? I really don’t think the Shitgibbon can actually blackmail politicians toward his will, unless he’s got pics of GOPers’ signatures on the lease to the famed little pizza place we all heard about. He’s too stupid for that. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/560 "2024-03-22T10:54:11Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Did they not see the upcoming lack of financial support for their own party? I really don’t think the Shitgibbon can actually blackmail politicians toward his will, unless he’s got pics of GOPers’ signatures on the lease to the famed little pizza place we all heard about. He’s too stupid for that. “Help me out or the firehose of death threats and mean nicknames will be aimed at you!” or, to put it another way: “It is better to be at the devil’s right hand than in his path.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=29)