# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/41 "2024-01-29T22:08:24Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > I think that was the 2020 plan, but they’ve moved on. Look at what the “Freedom” Caucus is doing. It’s the perfect minority-party set up. They’re happy to let the rest of the Republican party burn. Their behavior works better when there’s no inconvenient and boring responsibility to run the government. But they (figuratively) killed off McCarthy, who was the GOP House rainmaker. The trouble is that they are a bunch of nuts without the discipline to keep the grift going. > [@](#): > > The rest of us can’t take this for granted, of course. We have to mobilize, not just in blue states, but in every state. Even the red ones. But I don’t think they’re actually trying to take over, but instead are entrenching themselves. Yeah, the authoritarian takeover would have to come through the executive branch. They are ready and willing to enable that, but they are themselves not the planners and promoters of it (with some exceptions). ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/42 "2024-01-29T22:08:38Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > The GOP must be rebuilt from the ground up by people who have actually read, understand and care about the Constitution. And following rules. And obeying norms. Speaking of this, I did see in Phoenix a big SUV with 2 bumper stickers. One said: VOTE TRUMP The other did say: I ❤ the Constitution! To that I would say: Republicans! _ **You can’t love both!** _ ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/43 "2024-01-29T22:12:22Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > But they (figuratively) killed off McCarthy, who was the GOP House rainmaker. McCarthy did it to himself. The deal he made with them for house leadership was “give us a loaded gun so that we can definitely shoot you” and he said, “well sure, that sounds great.” ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/44 "2024-01-29T22:15:12Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > But they (figuratively) killed off McCarthy, who was the GOP House rainmaker. The trouble is that they are a bunch of nuts without the discipline to keep the grift going. Yep. That was the moment that it became clear to me that governing was not their goal any longer. They are totally fine with a Republican bloodbath. As long as they are secure in their own constituency and their own grift can continue. In fact, it’s even easier, since there’ll be fewer loonies to compete against at the national level. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/45 "2024-01-29T22:39:34Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The GOP is stupid, but it ain’t suicidal. There is a lot of gravy on the train, and they’re not just going to give it up as they did in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The _only_ thing that can save the GOP at this stage is ditching Trump–and they will! Both parties are similarly, to use your word, suicidal. They nominated Goldwater and McGovern. If the process in place leads to a weak nominee, they will have a weak nominee. Biden has been continuously behind in polling averages, for the past year, when you take into account the GOP electoral college advantage. Even worse, to me, if you compare 2019 and 2023 Trump-Biden polling, Biden consistently runs 5-10 percent behind where he was four years ago. I hope this changes. Maybe it will. I don’t think anyone really knows the impact of a Trump felony conviction. All we know is that civil verdicts, regarding the worst possible behavior other than murder, don’t change voter intentions. If the suicidal-to-Democrats polling stays the same, the Democrats will still nominate Joe and Kamala. That’s our, to use your word, suicidal, system. Are polls inaccurate this far in advance? Yes, but they are the only evidence we have as to whether Trump can win. Optimistic, or pessimistic, speculation about what would hurt him is not evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/46 "2024-01-29T22:51:38Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > This is such an important point. Haley is part of this movement, and that’s why she scares me so much. > > Next to MAGA, she looks “acceptable” And to many undecided voters, she also looks very different from Biden – younger, female, and of color. I think she has a better chance of beating Biden than Trump does, because people who are tired of old white guys (and don’t do their homework) might see her as a fresh alternative. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/47 "2024-01-29T23:05:52Z")
If millions of Republican voters can be deceived into thinking the 2020 election was stolen, they can also be deluded into thinking Trump can win in 2024. TPTB in the GOP hitched their wagon to him and they’ll ride it to whatever end - there is no way to change horses now. Haley is telling the truth that she would fair better against Biden, but the faithful don’t wanna hear it. I think he’ll be the nominee but lose (again) to Biden/Harris. I think there are more conservatives (quietly) fed-up with Trumpism to either vote against him or not vote at all for President if it’s a choice between him and Biden. I am not going to bet on it, tho, because who knows what surprises are lurking. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/48 "2024-01-29T23:22:27Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > 1. The media is beginning to comment on Trump’s growing number of oral flubs and fuckups, which seem like nothing less than oncoming dementia (confusing Haley and Pelosi multiple times in one speech–WTF?!). Well, in TFG’s defense they’re both just [vermin](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213746885/trump-vermin-hitler-immigration-authoritarian-republican-primary) that he plans on rooting out of our country. I mean, do you give the vermin you are planning on exterminating names? ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/49 "2024-01-29T23:28:36Z")
Most people don’t want either candidate. [https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-dismayed-by-biden-trump-2024-rematch-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-01-25](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-dismayed-by-biden-trump-2024-rematch-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-01-25) “Seventy percent of respondents - including about half of Democrats - agreed with a statement that Biden should not seek re-election. Fifty-six percent of people responding to the poll said Trump should not run, including about a third of Republicans.” What a shame we as a country are in this position. I’ll stand by my postion that whichever party nominates someone who will be under 60 when they are inaugurated will get my vote regardless of political or policy stance. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/50 "2024-01-29T23:30:28Z")
Moderating: > [@Omar\_Little](#): > > Most people don’t want either candidate. Not the subject of this thread. Please don’t hijack it. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/51 "2024-01-29T23:31:34Z")
Will you please pass along this note to every other poster in this thread that discussed Biden (I count 51 posts)? Thank you ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/52 "2024-01-30T00:05:59Z")
---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/53 "2024-01-30T00:06:40Z")
**Moderating** Do not argue Moderation in thread. More to come. Warning issued for arguing moderation. Your post is easily the largest hijack, arguing it was not only against the rule but silly as well. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/54 "2024-01-30T00:24:53Z")
This topic was automatically opened after 15 minutes. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/55 "2024-01-30T00:30:54Z")
If Trump does get the most delegates, then I don’t see a way for the Republican Party to not give it to him. They could have set up the system to give them more control, like with the Democratic superdelgates, but they have not. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/56 "2024-01-30T01:17:10Z")
Since shortly after the 2020 election I’ve said Trump will be the GOP nominee unless he is dead. I still stand by that statement. What is left of the party establishment is solidly controlled by the MAGA wing. The RNC chair Ronna McDaniel is firmly in the Trump camp as is the leadership in the House. The leadership in the Senate that isn’t MAGA is terrified to do anything that will upset the MAGA base. Romney is one of few senior GOP members who haven’t sold their souls to the MAGAs. McConnell is not going to risk calling out DJT and having him win. Same for others who might be expected to break with Trump. He will be the nominee even if he is in diapers and literally flinging his feces at the crowd at the convention. All the party faithful care about is owning the libs and Trump is the best way they have to rile up the baby raping socialist facist communist Dems. So unfortunately, the OP is mistaken. Applying logic to what the GOP will do at this point is irrelevant. The party is devoid of logic and driven only by fear of losing their seats if they turn on the Dear Leader. It is a cult after all. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/57 "2024-01-30T01:29:26Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The _only_ thing that can save the GOP at this stage is ditching Trump–and they will! It feels to me that there have been many, many points where ditching Trump would be the obvious winning play for the GOP, yet it has never materialized. I see no reason why the GOP all of a sudden comes to their senses. Like why now would they start? Why didn’t they unhitch on Jan 6, when it was easy to do so? No fucking way they start now. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/58 "2024-01-30T01:29:52Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > If Trump does get the most delegates, then I don’t see a way for the Republican Party to not give it to him. They could have set up the system to give them more control, like with the Democratic superdelgates, but they have not. According to the Republican National Convention rules as well as many state parties’ rules, delegates are required to vote for the candidate they’re pledged to on the first vote. So, if they stick to the rules, Trump will be overwhelmingly nominated on the first ballot. Of course, they can change the rules. But the delegates who will attend the convention will be largely picked by party activists at state and district level convenings. These “party activists” are exactly the people who are most in the bag for Trump. They will send the Trumpiest Trumpers who ever Trumped to the convention. Even delegates who might view Trump as a general election disaster won’t oppose him because they fear the wrath of the party activists in their own elections for office or party leadership. So, no, I can’t agree with the OP. There will be no GOP civil war, there is no “cabal” that will arise to push Trump out. Trump is who their voters want, and no Republican politician (minus Haley, I guess) with any ambition is going to stand in their way. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/59 "2024-01-30T01:37:23Z")
Exactly. The reason they didn’t do that then and won’t do it now is fear of losing the base and being primaried out of office from the right. I know you know this but the OP seems to be missing how real this fear is for most GOP officeholders. Cheney found this out the hard way and Romney and Kinzinger read the handwriting on the wall and didn’t/arent’ running again. The fall of DJT has been predicted over and over and yet never seems to arrive. I see nothing to convince me we are there now. ---
**Author:** ![Toxgoddess](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Toxgoddess](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxgoddess)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/60 "2024-01-30T01:49:11Z")
Cowards, the lot of them, except the few Cheneys and Romneys. Afraid of losing their jobs? Afraid of having to live like an ordinary peon? Welcome to the reality the rest of us live with; but the rest of us aren’t trying to burn the country down to keep our employment. I have nothing but contempt. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=4)