# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2024, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/581 "2024-03-26T22:17:22Z")
Whoa now, Trump may not have liked his living quarters and the actual _work_ of presidentin’, but he mostly definitely craves the (even if not unlimited) power, the attention and adulation, the (at least temporary state of) immunity and the enormous grifting opportunities both during and after his term of office. Plus he probably believes that there is just a slight chance of gumming up the constitutional works enough to hang around after his four years are up. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2024, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/582 "2024-03-26T23:48:49Z")
I think what you say is accurate. I think Trump is an odd case: a kinda lazy guy but with a monumental drive to grift. I think the presidency, therefore, was half bonanza for him, half torment. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/583 "2024-03-26T23:50:58Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Once the polls turn the other way (from Biden finally overcoming their bias, i.e., being in a position to totally destroy in the election), they will never go back, since Trump has nothing new to offer. > **[‘Biden bump is real’: president gains on Trump in six battleground states](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/26/election-trump-biden-latest-polls)** > > Bide leads Trump in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, new poll shows ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/584 "2024-03-27T00:12:34Z")
Yep. Things are trending our way. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/585 "2024-03-27T14:21:48Z")
More evidence that the republicans are going to get crushed in November. > **[Alabama Democrat flips State House seat by campaigning on reproductive rights](https://www.apr.org/news/2024-03-27/alabama-democrat-flips-state-house-seat-by-campaigning-on-reproductive-rights?_amp=true)** > > A Democrat who made reproductive rights a centerpiece of her campaign in deep red Alabama has won a special election to the Alabama Legislature. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/586 "2024-03-27T14:43:08Z")
I read elsewhere that the district which went to Trump by 2 points has now gone to the Democrat by 26 points. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/587 "2024-03-27T14:48:26Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > I read elsewhere that the district which went to Trump by 2 points has now gone to the Democrat by 26 points Yep. That same Democrat, Marilyn Lands, had lost to the (just departed) Republican in 2022 by 7 points. That’s a hell of a swing. ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/588 "2024-03-27T14:59:47Z")
Beau of the Fifth Column frequently has some useful insights on this sort of thing. He is saying you might want to be careful about reading to much into this. He argues that this has more to do with the fact that the Space Command didn’t move to Alabama (And that Republicans are to blame for it) than it does with Biden vs. Trump. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l40mKM8uo8w](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l40mKM8uo8w) ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/589 "2024-03-27T15:00:42Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > That’s a hell of a swing. Has anybody done any analysis of the voters who caused this swing? Special elections are usually sleepers. They get very little turnout and draw very little attention in many cases. What happened in this case? For example: How large was the turnout, and will it be representative of the expected turnout in the general election in november? How much campaigning did the two candidates do and was it a highly charged atmosphere , like the November election will be? The polls predicted an easy win for the Republican candidate.So maybe there was less turnout by Republicans? (Oops… Ninja’ed by one minute) .Thanks Tatterdemalian. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/590 "2024-03-27T15:03:32Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > > [@Pleonast](#): > > > > I read elsewhere that the district which went to Trump by 2 points has now gone to the Democrat by 26 points > > Yep. That same Democrat, Marilyn Lands, had lost to the (just departed) Republican in 2022 by 7 points. > > That’s a hell of a swing. Is this the district that Alabama restructured kicking and screaming after SCOTUS ruled they had to? That might be a better explanation for the big swing than voter sentiment changing. (Not that I’m complaining.) ETA: Also what @Tatterdemalion said. ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/591 "2024-03-27T15:09:19Z")
If Beau is correct, I wonder if thisn’t more of a referendum on Tuberville and his antics than anything else. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2024, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/592 "2024-03-27T16:12:58Z")
I’ll take the Alabama SE result as another data point in an overall pattern that is looking very good for us! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/593 "2024-03-28T01:48:03Z")
Bad for Trump: > **[How Trump's trial delay strategy may backfire](https://www.salon.com/2024/03/27/how-trial-delay-strategy-may-backfire/)** > > The new timelines could produce maximum damage for Trump If he can’t come up with the $175M, his “billionaire” posture is permanently punctured! He will look like a weak, broke fool to his worshipers. No bueno. I think the Ronna McDaniel firing at NBC is also damaging to the GOP cause. It’s clear that the media is losing its ability to spin the horse race and normalize Trump. There is also the chance the GOP could lose control of the House _before_ the election: > **[The GOP could lose the House before Election Day. Here's how Democrats get ready](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/27/2231789/-The-GOP-could-lose-the-House-before-Election-Day-Here-s-how-Democrats-get-ready?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web)** > > The bitter disarray consuming House Republicans could soon culminate in a dramatic climax never before seen in American history: control of the chamber changing hands before an election. And if it happens, Democrats need to be ready, because they... If that should happen, game over, I say. We already have GOP House reps _purposely_ timing their departure so as to maximum damage to MAGA. Should control switch, then it’s not just clear, it’s flashing-neon-red that Trump has no power over his own party and is in fact destroying it. What could be worse for his brand and election prospects? It’s coming apart, guys, and we’re still at the “bottle rocket, sparklers, and M80s” stage of the fireworks show! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/594 "2024-03-28T01:53:59Z")
Three GOP senators are also openly against Trump: > **[Trump is losing support among GOP senators](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/27/2231889/-Anti-Trump-sentiment-among-GOP-lawmakers-may-be-small-but-it-s-growing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web)** > > As Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska navigated the halls of Congress on Sunday, she dropped a bombshell in what would otherwise have been a perfunctory walk-and-talk media interview. “I wish that, as Republicans, we had a nominee I could get behind,"... Are there more to follow? Don’t bet against it! ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/595 "2024-03-28T12:59:34Z")
If there are any realistic people left at the top of the RNC after the Trump family takeover, they know they’ve got big problems in November. Fund raising is down and much of what is coming in is going to lawyers, Marc Elias is routinely defeating their vote suppression legislation in court, House members are deserting, MAGA senatorial candidates are trailing in states they have hopes of flipping, and the only demographic group in which they are gaining is young men, the least engaged cohort of them all. Yet it may still be a nailbiter. It defies explanation. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/596 "2024-03-28T16:20:57Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > If there are any realistic people left at the top of the RNC after the Trump family takeover, they know they’ve got big problems in November. Even as I try to be objective and avoid wishful thinking, it seems that RNC and GOP in general has gone from the frying pan of idiocy into the fire of imbecility. The problem with huffing Trump’s flatus 24/7 is that these fools really do end up believing in their own lies. All to our benefit in the election, of course. > [@](#): > > Fund raising is down and much of what is coming in is going to lawyers Yeah, this article is not sanguine about the GOP’s current performance in the election, and it comes from a “conservative” site (mostly now just Trump-enabling, Biden-attacking bullshit, with the occasional article critical of Trump): > **[The Trump Campaign’s Awkward Pivot to the General Election | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-trump-campaigns-awkward-pivot-to-the-general-election/)** > > The Biden campaign is already off and running. So far, Donald Trump’s GOP is just getting off the starting block. Key quote: **“We’ve got the skeleton right now,” Michigan Republican Party chairman Pete Hoekstra told the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/republican-presidential-election-trump-battleground-community-centers-e2ff949e3dd0d0bd278b9ce4b5bcfc2d) this week. “We’re going to have to put more meat on it.” The Republican Party’s modest footprint in Michigan is indicative of a broader trend. “Indeed,” the AP added, “just six months before the first early votes are cast in the general election between Trump and Biden, Trump’s Republican Party has little general election infrastructure to speak of.” The report contrasts the GOP’s gaunt campaign apparatus with Joe Biden’s increasingly robust ground game.** Sounds great, guys! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/597 "2024-03-28T16:34:17Z")
Oh, and a comment under the article above: **Do you realize Trumpworld is simply chopping off the 2020 logos and re-running online ads from his last campaign?** Is that true?! If so, then oh ho ho ho ho! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/598 "2024-03-28T18:27:25Z")
I imagine the “new” 2024 RNC platform is just going to be the old 2020 platform (We will do whatever Trump tells us) with the 2020 crossed out and 2024 written in sharpie. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/599 "2024-03-28T18:40:29Z")
The 2020 RNC didn’t even adopt a platform – they took the unusual step of simply reissuing the 2016 platform. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2024, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/600 "2024-03-28T18:41:54Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > The 2020 RNC didn’t even adopt a platform – they took the unusual step of simply reissuing the 2016 platform… Exactly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=31)