# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2024, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/641 "2024-04-03T17:59:04Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > A normal candidate would need a get-out-the-vote operation but Trumpers are fanatical. Every single candidate needs a GOTV operation. It’s the single most important thing, even for Trump. GOTV is about maintaining enthusiasm and momentum, not about name recognition or even convincing undecided voters. Elections are determined by which side gets more people off the couch and to the polls, and a lukewarm vote is worth infinitely more than a diehard who doesn’t think it’s necessary to cast a ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2024, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/642 "2024-04-03T18:19:33Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > In my continuing self-appointed role of being the burr under the saddle to the narrative of this thread, I appreciate it! > [@](#): > > I’ll note that [Trump and affiliated campaign accounts raised $65.6 million in March](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/03/trump-rnc-raised-65-6-million-march-00150300) and ended the month with $93.1 million in cash on hand. First I recognize the data point. I wish, however, that the article went more into the narrative of the thing. Should this haul be considered some kind of turnaround? If so, what changed? Are small donors now stepping up more, or is it more the bigger donors? And so on. > [@](#): > > And these amounts don’t include the tidal wave of dark money that will be spent on his behalf. Even with his legal costs, he’s going to have plenty of money to run a competitive campaign. Not sure that that completely follows. I need to know more of the aforementioned narrative to know what’s really going on. To me, the fundraising weakness was a bonus I hadn’t expected. If Trump is back to baseline, that’s regrettable, but I don’t find it all that demoralizing. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2024, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/643 "2024-04-03T18:27:47Z")
And heeeere’s your dark money: > **[Absolute Must-Read at The NY Times: Thomas B. Edsall names names behind...](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/3/2233170/-Absolute-Must-Read-at-The-NY-Times-Thomas-B-Edsall-names-names-behind-Trump-their-agenda?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > I normally find columns by Thomas B. Edsall less than satisfying. His columns appear in The NY Times on a weekly basis. He often takes on a particular issue of importance, but gathers input from various sources that often end up canceling each... ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/644 "2024-04-04T00:46:02Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > First I recognize the data point. I wish, however, that the article went more into the narrative of the thing. Should this haul be considered some kind of turnaround? If so, what changed? Are small donors now stepping up more, or is it more the bigger donors? And so on. Yeah, the article is light on detail. First quarter campaign finance reports are due to the FEC on April 15, we should get more information then. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/645 "2024-04-04T01:24:15Z")
Sanks! ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2024, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/646 "2024-04-05T17:13:01Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > The haul outpaces what he raised in March 2020 when he was an incumbent President seeking reelection. I hate that these things don’t seem to take into account inflation. There was a little bit of it these past four years, donchaknow. His haul in March 2020 was $62M. That’s the equivalent of about $75M in today’s money, accounting for inflation. So, in real terms, he is down about $10M in fundraising for March. (I haven’t checked the rest of the war chest numbers.) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/647 "2024-04-16T14:13:23Z")
Good piece with some nice points: > **[This trial is hell for Trump, and at age 77 he might not survive it](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/16/2235489/-This-trial-is-hell-for-Trump-and-at-age-77-he-might-not-survive-it?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > Donald Trump’s estranged and highly insightful niece, the psychologist Mary Trump, has said and written much about her sociopathic uncle and his mental state. Her book is quite something to read. And she has spoken often about Trump and... Quote at end, similar to what I’ve been saying this whole thread: > [@](#): > > I am now more optimistic that this situation could finish Trump off politically. But more than that — the odds are considerably greater than zero that this trial finishes Trump off literally. Either in mind (already in tatters) or in body. The dude can’t even stay awake in court at this point. He’s a fucking wreck. “Convention at Bernie’s” (i.e., pumping him full of speed and praying the Hail Mary) is looking both more likely (they’ll almost certainly have to do it) and less likely (they won’t even be able to do it) at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/648 "2024-04-16T16:38:15Z")
So, are there any efforts being made at this time on the part of the Republican Party to remove Trump from the nominee list? Any hints of a plan to swerve away from him if the trial goes badly? ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/649 "2024-04-16T16:41:20Z")
AFAIK Trump has gutted the RNC and replaced all the party professionals with his personal syncophants, possibly with just this scenario in mind. So I don’t think there’s any chance the GOP will dump him, no matter how disastrous the next few months go for him. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/650 "2024-04-16T17:32:35Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Good piece with some nice points The article in your link is from the Kos, so it’s full of the typical hyperbole that feeds their rage and sounds good only inside their social bubble. The click-baity headline says the trial is “Hell, and Trump might not survive”. But the article doesn’t support the title. The article makes six points: 1.Trump has finally realized that “the law owns him”, and he is not free to do what he wants. He must sit in the courtroom every day. 2. Trump is forced to listen while the jurors are asked to state out loud, that all citizens are equal, and that Trump is not above the law . 3.Reporters are staring at him all day long, every day , and he can’t do anything about it. 4.The stock value of Truth Social is collapsing. 5.Trump isnt able to campaign for the next 6 weeks because he is confined to the courtroom, while Biden is free to campaign. 6.Trump “does not have a beloved spouse and partner whom he can turn to for support.” Yeah, all 6 points are true, but to declare that Trump will physically die because of them is…well, weird. Death certificates must be signed by a doctor, who states the cause of death in medical terms, such as “cholesterol blockage in aortal vein”. There is no medical cause of death called “pissed off at the court system , with no wife to hug”. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/651 "2024-04-16T17:54:16Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Any hints of a plan to swerve away from him if the trial goes badly? Trump will be the GOP nominee even if he dies of a stroke and is cremated. They’ll put his box of ashes in a golden box on a podium and worship it. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/652 "2024-04-16T18:55:55Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > So, are there any efforts being made at this time on the part of the Republican Party to remove Trump from the nominee list? Any hints of a plan to swerve away from him if the trial goes badly? I don’t think so. Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire recently said it didn’t matter what Trump has done or might be convicted of, Republicans were going to support him for the office of president. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/653 "2024-04-16T19:12:05Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > So, are there any efforts being made at this time on the part of the Republican Party to remove Trump from the nominee list? Once he has the delegates the RNC cant stop him from being the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/654 "2024-04-16T19:18:49Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > such as “cholesterol blockage in aortal vein”. There is no medical cause of death called “pissed off at the court system , with no wife to hug”. But high blood pressure due to stress could cause a stroke, and you know he has to be at a near-boiling point every damn day, now. Six weeks of this? I could see him stroking out at some point. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/655 "2024-04-16T20:54:22Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire recently said it didn’t matter what Trump has done or might be convicted of, Republicans were going to support him for the office of president. And people like him will then turn to us and in all seriousness say: “look what you made us do” ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/656 "2024-04-16T21:06:06Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > And people like him will then turn to us and in all seriousness say: “look what you made us do” Now that I think about it, at least Sununu isn’t willing to cut throug the MAGA baloney excuses for Trump’s behavior and tell the nation he just doesn’t care. A lot of MAGA supporters believe Trump did nothing wrong, but I think most of them are fully aware Trump’s a snake but they just don’t care. It’s refreshing to see someone like Sununu just flat out admit Trump’s a snake but he’s going to support him anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/657 "2024-04-16T22:37:01Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > It’s refreshing to see someone like Sununu just flat out admit Trump’s a snake but he’s going to support him anyway. To me, it’s particularly despicable. At least the delusional crowd actually believes, in defiance of all facts, that Trump is blameless. For Sununu to say he’s fully aware of Trump’s transgressions, the threat he was to democracy, but he supports him anyway—well, it’s beyond shameful. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/658 "2024-04-17T00:05:37Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > To me, it’s particularly despicable. At least the delusional crowd actually believes, in defiance of all facts, that Trump is blameless. For Sununu to say he’s fully aware of Trump’s transgressions, the threat he was to democracy, but he supports him anyway—well, it’s beyond shameful. You’re not wrong, but one of the most frustrating things about Trump supporters is that I very often cannot tell whether they believe he’s a good guy or they don’t care that he’s a bad guy. From a practical point of view maybe it doesn’t matter. It’s just refreshing to hear one of them come right out and say they’re on the side of evil. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/659 "2024-04-17T00:16:28Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > You’re not wrong, but one of the most frustrating things about Trump supporters is that I very often cannot tell whether they believe he’s a good guy or they don’t care that he’s a bad guy. From a practical point of view maybe it doesn’t matter. It’s just refreshing to hear one of them come right out and say they’re on the side of evil. That’s a good point. Take Cruz and Hawley. By all accounts they’re both scary smart, and I don’t believe for a second that either thought there was a damn thing wrong with the election. So, you’re right. That cohort is even worse. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/660 "2024-04-17T00:18:36Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > But high blood pressure due to stress could cause a stroke, and you know he has to be at a near-boiling point every damn day, now. Six weeks of this? I could see him stroking out at some point. Seriously? Being in the courtroom is moderately high stress in terms of worrying about a possible sentence of months in jail. But in terms of what he is responsible to do, it is low stress. Compare to bring a waiter when you can’t afford to lose your job — now, that is high stress. Given what I read about Georgia prisons, that should be the stressful one. In any event, Trump being stressed is not going to affect his being thr November candidate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=34)