# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 41
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/801 "2024-04-27T19:55:27Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I don’t think guidelines say the judge MUST give jail time for any of Trumps crimes if convicted. Even a convicted felon who isn’t given any jail time is still going to have a term of probation. I just _love_ the idea that he’s going to have to check in with a probation officer. Or needs permission to travel. > [@commasense](#): > > Can a judge keep Trump off social media as part of a prison/jail sentence? Under what circumstances? It could be a condition of probation, but probation conditions have to be related to the offense. So, internet restrictions make sense for an Internet predator, or somebody running online scams, but probably not on the New York false records charge. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/802 "2024-04-27T19:58:13Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > I’ve come to the conclusion Trump will never see a day in jail or prison. Any conviction will result in home confinement. And that is not so terrible, is it? I mean the cost and security consideration alone, make that a no so bad way to go. but I do think trump may spend overnight in real jail due to contempt. Or maybe a weekend. But that’s about it. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/803 "2024-04-27T20:13:43Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > However, I’m also of the strong opinion that Trump will not spend 15 minutes in any form of prison, jail or custody. Ever. Even if convicted and all appeals are exhausted. He won’t even get house arrest. Why though? Just magic? > [@](#): > > He’ll keep blathering more and more victimhood bleatings until the day he dies. He will, but that won’t stop a judge from putting him in prison. > [@](#): > > Further prediction - decades after his death, there will be an offshoot Christian sect that centers around Trump. There will need to be a Paul the Apostle to re-write some of the Trump history first. Good news! Your prediction has already come true. It’s called Evangelical Christianity in America _right now_. Trump has had many Pauls on Fox News, right-wing radio, GOP sycophants and enablers, and actual “Christian” pastors to rewrite the Good Book and every form of fact so as to favor the Orange Christ. All joking aside, though, what I am dreading is our dogshit media going on and on about Trump for the next 20 years, including retrospectives that ask, “Was Trump really so bad?” Yes, and I beg you in advance, after he is gone (which won’t be long), please don’t ever talk about him again except to shame the GOP until MAGA is completely purged. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/804 "2024-04-27T20:22:30Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I don’t think guidelines say the judge MUST give jail time for any of Trumps crimes if convicted. He will be given the lightest sentence possible And why? I interpreted once in a traffic case for a Japanese guy who happened to be a belligerent idiot (I now refuse to do any legal interpreting, since the Japanese people who get in that kind of trouble in the US are the ones for whom you don’t want to interpret. I also did a case once for a woman who was only semi-belligerent but still an idiot who ended up paying a buttload of court costs, etc.). Anyhow, the judge said that when people commit a certain type of infraction again and again and don’t seem to give a shit about the fines, then he gives them 30 days in the hole. (I forget what the infraction was other than that it was traffic-related.) Well, Trump has demonstrated again and again that he doesn’t give a fuck about fines and also enjoys fucking around with the legal system. He’s already been a dick again and again in Judge Mercan’s case, so why _wouldn’t_ he slap a light prison sentence on Trump to teach the fucker a lesson? Sure, if everyone else who commits this crime is getting off only with fines (for which I’d like to see a cite or two), then I can see why the judge will _not_ give Trump four years in prison (which I have heard is possible). But a month or two or three? Why the fuck not? No one will really be able to argue, “Waaah, it’s so _unfair_ to this good, upstanding maaannnn!” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/805 "2024-04-27T20:24:46Z")
> [@commasense](#): > > Maybe one of our resident lawyers can opine on this. Can a judge keep Trump off social media as part of a prison/jail sentence? Under what circumstances? Clearly, his defense team will object on First Amendment grounds. Are prisoners allowed to fuck around on the Internet all day long and blast away on social media? ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/806 "2024-04-27T20:52:20Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Are prisoners allowed to fuck around on the Internet all day long and blast away on social media? @Moriarty already answered this: > [@Moriarty](#): > > It could be a condition of probation, but probation conditions have to be related to the offense. So, internet restrictions make sense for an Internet predator, or somebody running online scams, but probably not on the New York false records charge. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/807 "2024-04-27T20:54:05Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > > > He will be given the lightest sentence possible > > And why? Because he is wealthy, influential and connected. This is how the judicial process works in the USA. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/808 "2024-04-27T21:01:53Z")
> [@commasense](#): > > @Moriarty already answered this: That’s part of an answer (and I am asking because I am ignorant). But do most state/federal prisoners have unfettered internet access in the first place? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/809 "2024-04-27T21:04:06Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Because he is wealthy, influential and connected. This is how the judicial process works in the USA. So Judge Mercan will inevitably be influenced by that? I don’t buy that at all. Further, I think being those things helps one avoid legal troubles in the first place and afford good lawyers once one does get in trouble, but plenty of rich and famous people get in legal trouble and aren’t shown a whole lot of deference. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/810 "2024-04-27T21:06:54Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > So Judge Mercan will inevitably be influenced by that? I That is simply the way the world works, like it or not. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/811 "2024-04-27T21:09:45Z")
It’s the way the world works, so Judge Mercan will do what you suppose?! I know you know that makes no sense. If that were the way the world works, why is Trump on trial at all right now? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/812 "2024-04-27T21:14:34Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > > [@commasense](#): > > > > @Moriarty already answered this: > > That’s part of an answer (and I am asking because I am ignorant). But do most state/federal prisoners have unfettered internet access in the first place? Yeah, I was just referring to a “minimal” probation sentence. If donald went to jail or prison, I don’t expect him to have email or internet access. Some jails and prisons do have electronic messaging, but it’s not unfettered. I seriously doubt he’d be able to rant and rave online as an inmate. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/813 "2024-04-27T21:15:31Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > I seriously doubt he’d be able to rant and rave online as an inmate. It would be a blessed respite! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/814 "2024-04-27T21:21:58Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > If that were the way the world works, why is Trump on trial at all right now? Because it it “justice theatre “ for the masses. See? Everyone gets a trial! It’s all bullshit. Your optimism is very nice, but reality is that the very wealthy do not live in the same world as you and I. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/815 "2024-04-27T21:26:30Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Because it it “justice theatre “ for the masses. See? Everyone gets a trial! > > It’s all bullshit. Your optimism is very nice, but reality is that the very wealthy do not live in the same world as you and I. Sorry, I don’t think you’re addressing the realities on the ground. Trump has already lost a bunch of civil suits, including the one in NY, which carries a crushing fine. Trump has been indicted in four different jurisdictions. It’s “theater” that’s seriously fucking with his life at this point. Famous people get indicted, arrested, and imprisoned. I’m not saying there is no advantage to being rich and famous, but your comment doesn’t match the facts. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/816 "2024-04-27T21:32:23Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > That’s part of an answer (and I am asking because I am ignorant). But do most state/federal prisoners have unfettered internet access in the first place? I’ve posted on the before with links. Few if any have unfettered access. Cell phones are always against the rules, although common in Georgia. But some sort of tablet with email is common. Also, and I did not say this before, prisoners can get newspapers in the mail, and send outgoing postal mail. So even if he was in a prison where for some reason email access is very limited, he still could stay informed and make near-daily Truth Social posts. The idea of taking away his freedom of speech is wrong by my ethical system, and is not happening. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/817 "2024-04-27T21:33:52Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The idea of taking away his freedom of speech is wrong by my ethical system, and is not happening. I’m willing to make an exception for our home-grown Hitler. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/818 "2024-04-27T21:52:08Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I’m willing to make an exception for our home-grown Hitler. You don’t beat fascists by cheerleading for fascist solutions. Trump gets the same constitutional protections as every other criminal. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/819 "2024-04-27T21:53:10Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > However, I’m also of the strong opinion that Trump will not spend 15 minutes in any form of prison, jail or custody. Ever. Even if convicted and all appeals are exhausted. He won’t even get house arrest. I believe this will likely happen because (a) he won’t live long enough to get through the drawn-out appellate process or (b) he’ll live that long but deteriorate so far mentally and physically that he’s placed in an elder care type facility instead of prison. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/820 "2024-04-27T22:00:21Z")
> [@commasense](#): > > @Moriarty already answered this: Yesbut- in actual prison and or jail, you have very limited access, no matter your crimes. > [@Aeschines](#): > > But do most state/federal prisoners have unfettered internet access in the first place? No. > [@Aeschines](#): > > Famous people get indicted, arrested, and imprisoned. I’m not saying there is no advantage to being rich and famous, but your comment doesn’t match the facts. Right. > **[Billionaires behind bars: The world's richest who've served time](https://www.forbes.com.au/news/billionaires/billionaires-behind-bars/)** > > How Sam Bankman-Fried’s possible 110 year sentence stacks up against other ex-billionaires and billionaires who’ve served time. _At least 11 billionaires or former billionaires have spent time behind bars. Here is what they did and how long they were in the clink._ _Former crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted Thursday on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy._ _The 31-year-old, who was once worth as much as $24 billion and ranked No. 41 among America’s richest, faces up to 110 years in prison and is expected to be sentenced on March 28th._ So, yes, a very rich person has tools most of us dont- but in the end, they dont always work’ > [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > I believe this will likely happen because (a) he won’t live long enough to get through the drawn-out appellate process or (b) he’ll live that long but deteriorate so far mentally and physically that he’s placed in an elder care type facility instead of prison. Certainly this could occur. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=40) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=42)