# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 42
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/821 "2024-04-27T22:45:10Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > . Trump has already lost a bunch of civil suits, including the one in NY, which carries a crushing fine. > > Trump has been indicted in four different jurisdictions. It’s “theater” that’s seriously fucking with his life at this point. Trump has not paid a nickle of these fines yet. He may well pay something after years of appeals, but it will likely be much less than the original amounts. The other trials are just irritating for him. That’s all. He’s using them quite effectively to campaign and fundraise. Get back to me when Trump is actually serving a prison sentence. I’ll wait. And wait. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/822 "2024-04-27T22:53:58Z")
Right, this is more realistic. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/823 "2024-04-27T22:59:35Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Trump has not paid a nickle of these fines yet. He may well pay something after years of appeals, but it will likely be much less than the original amounts. Not true. Trump has lost civil suits in the past that cost him a lot, e.g.: > **[Trump University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_University)** > > Trump University (also known as the Trump Wealth Institute and Trump Entrepreneur Initiative LLC) was an American company that ran a real estate training program from 2005 to 2010. It was owned and operated by The Trump Organization. A separate organization, Trump Institute, was licensed by Trump University but not owned by The Trump Organization. In 2011, amid multiple investigations, lawsuits and student complaints, it ceased operations. It was founded in 2004 by Donald Trump, who was U.S.... **Trump University was also the subject of two [class actions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Class_action) in federal court. The lawsuits centered around allegations that Trump University defrauded its students by using misleading marketing practices and engaging in aggressive sales tactics. […] Despite repeatedly insisting he would not settle, Trump settled all three lawsuits in November 2016 for a total of $25 million after being elected president.** > [@](#): > > The other trials are just irritating for him. That’s all. He’s using them quite effectively to campaign and fundraise. You know that he is required to be in court every day for the duration of his current NY trial, right? He’s _not able_ to campaign in person during that time. And it doesn’t seem as though Trump is “just irritated.” He looks like he’s in hell, which is fine with me. > [@](#): > > Get back to me when Trump is actually serving a prison sentence. I’ll wait. And wait. It could happen in just a few weeks, actually. Would you consider home confinement a sentence that meets your requirements? I would be happy to see that happen too. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/824 "2024-04-27T23:29:53Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Despite repeatedly insisting he would not settle, Trump settled all three lawsuits in November 2016 for a total of $25 million after being elected president. Read your cites. > The settlement was paid not by Trump but by his Las Vegas hotel business partner, billionaire [Phil Ruffin](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Ruffin). In other situations, Trump often paid for settlements via his (now dissolved) foundation, eg with other peoples’ money. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2024, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/825 "2024-04-27T23:35:53Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > In other situations, Trump often paid for settlements via his (now dissolved) foundation, eg with other peoples’ money. Yeah, he is one of the great grifters of all time. Even so, these lawsuits were not good for his brand, etc., and I would not assume they had no effect on him. His casino bankruptcies also seem to have been a great strain on him. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/826 "2024-04-28T01:08:01Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Even so, these lawsuits were not good for his brand, etc., He GOT ELECTED after bankrupting casinos, and while the Trump University lawsuit was still in process (he settled only after the election, and paid, as was pointed out, with other people’s money). I admire your enthusiasm and unbridled optimism, I really do. My dimmer view is that Trump WILL be the R nominee for 2024, and the money owed for lawsuits WILL be reduced on appeal (and likely paid by someone else), and that Trump WILL NOT spend 10 seconds incarcerated for any reason, ever. He SHOULD pay all that money himself, and he SHOULD go to jail. It’s not fair, but most of the time life is not fair. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/827 "2024-04-28T01:45:15Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He GOT ELECTED after bankrupting casinos, and while the Trump University lawsuit was still in process (he settled only after the election, and paid, as was pointed out, with other people’s money). Yep, his political disgrace is a disgrace to our country (not yours–Canada, right?). > [@](#): > > I admire your enthusiasm and unbridled optimism, I really do. Dude… you’ve been following this thread. There is _no_ enthusiasm or optimism. I will _repeat_: extirpating the MAGA disease from our politics will take a generation. It is a fucking cancer on our society that one election won’t cure. > [@](#): > > My dimmer view is that Trump WILL be the R nominee for 2024, and the money owed for lawsuits WILL be reduced on appeal (and likely paid by someone else), and that Trump WILL NOT spend 10 seconds incarcerated for any reason, ever. He’s had other judgments that have affected him. His foundation, for example, is gone. I think the fines will be crippling and he _will_ spend time in the hoosegow unless he dies first (which is entirely possible). > [@](#): > > It’s not fair, but most of the time life is not fair. Trump has gotten away with more obscene shit than 99.999% of ill-willed individuals in human history, but he is not magic, and his time is coming to an end. The return to some sort of political normalcy, however, will take much longer to effect. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/828 "2024-04-28T01:50:35Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > his time is coming to an end. I pray you are correct. I fear you are not. 20 quatloos says Trump’s fines will be reduced by 50% or more by the time the appeals are finished (years) 30 quatloos says Trump will have someone/something else pay these fines. 100 quatloos says that Trump will spend no time at all in jail/prison/confinement 500 quatloos says that Trump will be the Republican Nominee for president. I don’t think he’ll win, but he’ll come close. Too close for comfort. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/829 "2024-04-28T03:07:21Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Trump has not paid a nickle of these fines yet. > **[Here Are All The Legal Bills Trump Has Faced Since Last Year—Surpassing $540...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/03/08/here-are-all-the-legal-bills-trump-has-faced-since-last-year-surpassing-540-million/?sh=33c87791c6be)** > > The amount Trump owes is increasing each day. _Jan. 12, 2024_\*$392,638:\*\* Trump was [ordered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-ordered-pay-legal-fees-failed-new-york/story?id=106333806) to pay nearly $400,000 in legal fees to The New York Times after a court tossed his lawsuit taking issue with the newspaper acquiring and [publishing](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/07/us/politics/donald-trump-taxes.html) his tax records, which the Times [said](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/26/media/legal-fees-new-york-times-donald-trump/index.html) in February Trump has now paid.\* _Jan. 19, 2023_\*$937,989.39:\*\* Trump and his attorney Alina Habba were jointly [ordered](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.610157/gov.uscourts.flsd.610157.302.0_1.pdf) to pay nearly a million dollars in sanctions over the ex-president’s lawsuit against Hillary Clinton and other Democrats, which a judge [ruled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/09/09/trumps-case-against-hillary-clinton-thrown-out-in-court-has-no-merit-as-a-lawsuit/) was “inadequate in nearly every respect” and “unsupported by any legal authority”—Habba has [said](https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1736479703161360448) the fine has been paid, though Trump is appealing the case.\* _Jan. 13, 2023_\*$1.6 million:\*\* While not against him personally, the Trump Organization was [sentenced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/01/13/trump-organization-ordered-to-pay-16-million-for-tax-fraud/) to pay over a million after being found guilty for criminal tax fraud after it evaded paying taxes using gifts and other off-the-books compensation; the court [confirmed](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-organization-pays-dollar16-million-fine-for-tax-fraud-conviction) in Feb. 2023 the judgment had been paid.\* ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/830 "2024-04-28T13:19:25Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Find a disused jail or similar facility This is the United States. Our jails and prisons are not disused - they are full. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > As has been hashed out multiple times in various threads, there are simply no huge logistical obstacles to putting him in prison. I haven’t read those threads. Putting ex-President in prison is a unique situation that hasn’t been faced yet. The closest we came was Nixon, and he was pardoned before any trials to save the country embarrassment. Protecting the ex-pres is still the Secret Services responsibility. There’s no way he goes into a normal prison - even a Club Fed white collar one. What, does he get isolation from gen pop? Special privileges for someone in “solitary confinement”? I don’t see it - and I would love to. My number one scenario would be Trump broke from judgements and sitting in prison for a long, miserable time. With his health and political realities, number 2 would be broke and in home confinement, but not his own guilded estate because he’s broke, so some cheap dump of an apartment. I suppose a good third would be losing his mind and rotting in a vegetative stupor. Letting all the MAGAs watch him physically deteriorate while mentally mush into silence. Because he’s past incoherence. Dying outright is a distant, unsatisfying ending. I want repurcussions, and I want him to know it. > [@Aeschines](#): > > Would you consider home confinement a sentence that meets your requirements? No. In an actual jail/ prison alongside other lawbreakers. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/831 "2024-04-28T16:45:43Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > I haven’t read those threads. Putting ex-President in prison is a unique situation that hasn’t been faced yet. The closest we came was Nixon, and he was pardoned before any trials to save the country embarrassment. Protecting the ex-pres is still the Secret Services responsibility. There’s no way he goes into a normal prison - even a Club Fed white collar one. > > What, does he get isolation from gen pop? Special privileges for someone in “solitary confinement”? The departments of correction have lots of experience dealing with “special” prisoners—e.g., governors, former members of Congress, etc. if we want, we could compare notes with South Korea, who recently sent an ex-president to the slammer. I think the likeliest outcome would be a facility with exactly one prisoner—Trump. There likely exists such a place, or they could easily construct one. Trump will never be anywhere near a general prison population. Picture Frankie Pentangeli’s setup in _The Godfather II_. And accommodating a SS detail would be trivially easy. It would be the most boring detail of their careers, but I’m sure they could provide a few stools so the agents wouldn’t have to stand all day. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/832 "2024-04-28T18:12:21Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > This is the United States. Our jails and prisons are not disused - they are full. > … > No. In an actual jail/ prison alongside other lawbreakers. I’m sure there is at least one county jail in New York state that is not in use because they just built a bigger one, etc. But as I said, it could be a “similar facility.” He could be put in _any_ room somewhere, so long as it has a bed and a john and the building can be made sufficiently secure. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > I think the likeliest outcome would be a facility with exactly one prisoner—Trump. There likely exists such a place, or they could easily construct one. Trump will never be anywhere near a general prison population. Right. He won’t be “alongside other lawbreakers” or anyone who could possibly do him harm. > [@](#): > > And accommodating a SS detail would be trivially easy. It would be the most boring detail of their careers, but I’m sure they could provide a few stools so the agents wouldn’t have to stand all day. It might be a nightmare, however, if they have to listen to Trump try to talk to them all day and sit in the stink of _his_ stool. ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/833 "2024-04-28T18:35:35Z")
IANASSA, but in a secured facility, I don’t think Secret Service agents would need to be in Trump’s immediate presence 24/7. I also seriously doubt he would have to be the only prisoner, either. I imagine a minimum security (i.e., “country club”) prison would do, with regular screenings of the other prisoners whenever Trump was in the general population for meals or exercise. Or perhaps he would have separate meal/exercise sessions with a select group of trustees, if mixing with the gen pop was considered too risky. If the courts sentence him to prison or jail, the Secret Service will figure out a solution. They don’t get to say, “Sorry, no can do.” And of course, assuming he loses, Biden could just rescind his SS protection. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/834 "2024-04-28T19:14:50Z")
> [@commasense](#): > > I imagine a minimum security (i.e., “country club”) prison would do, with regular screenings of the other prisoners whenever Trump was in the general population for meals or exercise. Nope, not a chance. There is a zero probability that anyone will take even a tiny chance that anyone not part of security will get anywhere near Trump. No one is going to allow a former president to be harmed or killed on his watch. ETA: And his guards will be background checked to within an inch of their lives. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/835 "2024-04-28T21:12:10Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > I think the likeliest outcome would be a facility with exactly one prisoner—Trump. There likely exists such a place, or they could easily construct one. Trump will never be anywhere near a general prison population. Picture Frankie Pentangeli’s setup in _The Godfather II_. That is something conceivable. It gets closest to my desire for prison time. A real facility with all the limits of a typical prison, including bars on the doors, a crapper in the cell, limited amenities, and boring gray walls. No gold gilding or plush chairs. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > And accommodating a SS detail would be trivially easy. It would be the most boring detail of their careers, but I’m sure they could provide a few stools so the agents wouldn’t have to stand all day. In that kind of accommodation, SS would probably be the jailers. Yeah, no gen pop means little risk. > [@commasense](#): > > If the courts sentence him to prison or jail, the Secret Service will figure out a solution. They don’t get to say, “Sorry, no can do.” Oh I agree, I just think there will be considerable pressure on the courts to avoid actual prison. House arrest at Mar-a-lago or any fancy property he owns is insufficient. But I could see appeals go rapidly up the court system to keep him out of any real prison, even a “club fed”. And this Supreme Court, there’s no telling what they will do. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/836 "2024-04-28T21:15:49Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Oh I agree, I just think there will be considerable pressure on the courts to avoid actual prison Pressure from whom? What bad thing might occur if the judge ignores said pressure? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2024, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/837 "2024-04-28T21:42:58Z")
# Please drop Trump Incarceration from this thread. The discussion of Trump in prison and the Secret Service is already active here: > [@Trump, potential incarceration, and Secret Service protection](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-potential-incarceration-and-secret-service-protection/1000506): > > This keeps coming up in other threads, but I don’t want to carry them onto hijacks. With Trump’s various legal issues, the possibility exists that, at some point, he might find himself locked up in jail and/or prison. It’s often claimed that this would be problematic due to his Secret Service protection. But why? They just have to keep him safe. They don’t have to keep him free. And it’s a lot easier to keep someone safe in a jail or prison than in, say, a hotel room. I mean, sure, there … ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2024, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/838 "2024-04-29T00:37:54Z")
Oops! Got it. Mea culpa. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/839 "2024-05-08T15:13:28Z")
_This is the closest thing we have to a “ **Trump run-up to the 2024 general election thread** ”, so I’m putting this Paul Ryan blurb here. @Aspenglow, if this better posted elsewhere (I considered it in the “ **Biden run-up** ” thread), feel free to move this post._ … Not as good as Geoff Duncan’s Biden endorsement, but **[Ryan’s defection](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-house-speaker-paul-ryan-says-hes-not-voting-for-trump--character-is-too-important-210633204.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240508-0&bt_user_id=UoEdEAzGDm9akDshSrgzs5kaU2Z2A7s%2FPN%2ByNOxo67mGYnYHDQ%2Fi8IPtrUMikD0D&bt_ts=1715170287660)** is yet another flake of paint chipping off the Trump machine. > Paul Ryan has no interest in giving Donald Trump another chance come November. > > The former House speaker told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that he doesn’t plan to vote for the former president, adding he would be writing in a Republican candidate instead. > > “Character is too important for me,” Ryan told us at the Milken Institute Global Conference. “[The presidency] is a job that requires the kind of character [Trump] doesn’t have.” ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2024, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/840 "2024-05-08T19:33:00Z")
He’s in Wisconsin, a swing state where writing in a Republican candidate is the near-equivalent of voting for Trump. What a brave, brave guy! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=41) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=43)