# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 46
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/901 "2024-05-28T04:22:51Z")
And also is sentenced to one year in Jail. Hard to campaign from there. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/902 "2024-05-28T04:27:09Z")
He would be free on appeal. I know it’s not the usual thing, but then Trump is a very special boy. That’s why I am hoping for direct criminal contempt for threatening judge and jury in open court. Go to jail, go directly to jail. Let his lawyers try to get him out of Rickers. Here’s his accommodation: [![](https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/newshour/app/uploads/2016/11/RTR4T5PW-1024x712.jpg) ](https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/newshour/app/uploads/2016/11/RTR4T5PW-1024x712.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/903 "2024-05-28T05:53:35Z")
[Thirty Days in the Hole](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLTZavs4WAo) ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/904 "2024-05-28T09:07:53Z")
His debate performance won’t matter, sadly. Even if he just stands there doing that “wubble-wubble” noise by rubbing his finger on his lips, his crew will remain attached. The debates are no danger to him at all. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/905 "2024-05-28T10:20:32Z")
Trump can’t win with only MAGA cult voters. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/906 "2024-05-28T15:07:03Z")
I disagree for two reasons: 1. As [Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself) said, Trump can’t win with just MAGAheads. He needs “independents,” which he failed to get in 2020 and therefore lost. His debate performance can pull them in or push them away. 2. It may be true that Trump could, as he once said, shoot someone on 5th Ave. and not lose his base. But I think it is untrue that Trump and the strongman types like him can _never_ lose their supporters. There’s one key way they can. Which is being weak. Debilitated. If Trump seems incoherent in the debates, he won’t lose all of his support, but he will lose some of it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/907 "2024-05-28T19:28:52Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He would be free on appeal. I know it’s not the usual thing, I do not think so, but perhaps house arrest with ankle bracelet, and no passport. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/908 "2024-05-28T20:19:31Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I do not think so, but perhaps house arrest with ankle bracelet, and no passport. My prediction (in the event of a guilty verdict): Free as a bird, and able to post outrageous lies and attacks on the judge, jury and prosecutors. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/909 "2024-05-28T21:37:19Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > …fascist smegma lump… I’m still laughing at this! 🤣 > [@Aeschines](#): > > Oh I would definitely prefer him to debate. Oh yeah. High Entertainment! It’ll be like the Nazis when The Ark gets opened up. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/910 "2024-05-28T21:40:19Z")
Trump attempted a coup. People that are willing to forgive that would forgive any debate performance. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/911 "2024-05-28T21:49:15Z")
“I’m not sure about this Trump guy, maybe a robust debate will finally give me the information about his competency and character that the last ten years haven’t.” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/912 "2024-05-28T23:05:57Z")
> [@Gatopescado](#): > > I’m still laughing at this! 🤣 🤭 > [@](#): > > Oh yeah. High Entertainment! It’ll be like the Nazis when The Ark gets opened up. Hahahaha–perfect!!! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/913 "2024-05-28T23:06:51Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Trump attempted a coup. People that are willing to forgive that would forgive any debate performance. Again, it’s about independents. Trump could lose some MAGAs (_some_) if he literally appears to be mentally debilitated, which of course he is. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/914 "2024-05-28T23:07:37Z")
It’s more like a dominance/mental capacity fight between the two candidates, which can and would sway some “independents.” ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/915 "2024-05-28T23:56:23Z")
I’m not sure I follow. You’re arguing that MAGA supporters don’t care about the coup or his mental flubs over the past 8 years. They show up to his rallies, but the scales will fall from their eyes at a poor debate performance? ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/916 "2024-05-29T00:06:51Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > But I think it is untrue that Trump and the strongman types like him can _never_ lose their supporters. There’s one key way they can. Which is being weak. Agree. That’s why I’ll be so disappointed when he doesn’t debate. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/917 "2024-05-29T00:13:17Z")
I’m speculating here, but it’s based on the words I’ve actually seen MAGAs say and write since 2016: I think MAGA falls into two categories: deniers and embracers. > [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > I’m not sure I follow. You’re arguing that MAGA supporters don’t care about the coup So, for example, deniers deny that 1/6 was actually a coup attempt, while embracers _love_ that it was a coup attempt and wish, openly, that Trump was dictator right now. Note, however, that deniers wouldn’t necessarily _reject_ the idea of Trump as dictator. Most would probably be OK with it after the fact, but they can’t mentally process it that way. I don’t know what the percentage would be. I think it started out mostly his supporters being deniers, but I think more have become embracers over time. Maybe it’s 60/40 denier/embracer at this point. > [@](#): > > or his mental flubs over the past 8 years. Trump is currently in _rapid_ mental decline and is descending into dementia, but the media has reported on this poorly, and MAGA in general is in denial about it to the extent that the recognize it at all (there’s no embracing actual weakness and debility within MAGA, although there have been people wearing diapers to rallies, holding signs reading, “Real Men Wear Diapers,” etc.; though I think dementia itself would be a bridge too far). In any case, Trump really didn’t have a lot of “flubs” in the past. Now there are times when he can barely speak. > [@](#): > > They show up to his rallies, but the scales will fall from their eyes at a poor debate performance? Yeah, the strongman can’t be a drooling dementia patient. Many will remain in denial for the duration, but if Trump is having a hard time during the debate, he could lose a few MAGA voters but a lot of “independents.” ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/918 "2024-05-29T00:13:44Z")
My prediction is that _if_ Trump goes to jail he will remain the Republican nominee. The Right have far too much invested in ex-President Circus Peanut and they are not about to admit that either he nor they screwed the pooch. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/919 "2024-05-29T00:15:55Z")
To me it’s unclear. They are such idiots that anything is possible, but if Trump is sitting in the hoosegow for a few months _and_ he’s cratering in the polls, it’s at that point that they may consider other options. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/920 "2024-05-29T00:18:00Z")
They are in too deep to do that. When was the last time _any_ Republican in power admitted to a mistake of that magnitude? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=45) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=47)