# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 48
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/941 "2024-05-29T12:16:19Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > The big risk the “Rich People politics” players are taking is what happens if the “base” decides that the “tear down the establishment” part of the campaign is to be taken seriously as the priority. George W. Bush, a Yale man from Connecticut, became one of them after moving to a Texas ranch, turning on a fake southern accent, and wearing a cowboy hat. Likewise JD Vance, a US Senator and Yale law grad, routinely rails against “the elites”. Elon Musk whips up resentment against “the establishment”. Trust me when I say that rich folks have no problem at all managing the base’s perception of who is elite/establishment and who isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/942 "2024-05-29T20:08:06Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > No idea why, but at first glance I’d have sworn you said _Atlantis_. It makes just as much sense… 🤪 > [@Pleonast](#): > > Those examples all favor Biden. Trump surrendered to the Taliban. Trump is trying to escalate the Hamas war. Trump is directing the House. Yeah, somebody is trying to blame Biden for trumps mistakes. > [@Irishman](#): > > The disfunction in Congress isn’t Biden’s fault, but it is his obstacle to overcome. No, its _trumps_ fault. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > 500 quatloos says that Trump will be the Republican Nominee for president. Unless dead or medically eliminated. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/943 "2024-05-30T00:07:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > > [@Pleonast](#): > > > > Those examples all favor Biden. Trump surrendered to the Taliban. Trump is trying to escalate the Hamas war. Trump is directing the House. > > Yeah, somebody is trying to blame Biden for trumps mistakes. No, Trump bears a great deal of blame for his role, but Biden has contributed his share of mistakes. To reply further would be a thread hijack. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/944 "2024-05-30T00:24:22Z")
Moderating: > [@Irishman](#): > > No, Trump bears a great deal of blame for his role, but Biden has contributed his share of mistakes. > > To reply further would be a thread hijack. If replying further would be a thread hijack, then initially replying is also a thread hijack. Don’t do this jerkish thing where you say what you want and then foreclose additional discussion with the, “but it would be a hijack,” maneuver. Let’s drop discussion of Biden in a Trump potential party nominee thread. If you want to discuss Biden, do it in a Biden thread. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/945 "2024-05-30T00:42:13Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > To me it’s unclear. They are such idiots that anything is possible, but if Trump is sitting in the hoosegow for a few months _and_ he’s cratering in the polls, it’s at that point that they may consider other options. At that point, the Republicans have two possible choices 1. Ignore the result of the primary, break party rules, piss off a bunch of their Trump voting base, irrevocably fracture the party and lose the election. 2. Keep Trump as the nominee, lose the election then try picking up the pieces afterwards, hoping that by the time 2028 rolls around people will no longer be fanatically devoted to a twice losing jail bird. Either way Biden wins. But in the latter they still have a chance of returning to relevance. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/946 "2024-05-30T01:32:56Z")
The Republican party did just that calculus after Jan6, after after a few moments of honest anger (how dare THEY be put at risk as well) went with the “all-in” option on Trump. Option one hasn’t been on the table in years. Not that I think you were suggesting it as likely! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/947 "2024-05-30T05:02:03Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > If even 10% of the people who watch the debate see through the BS to recognize how deranged and demented Trump has begun, anything could happen. Exactly, if people are worried that Trump could be, as he was in 2016, elected by razor-thin margins in swing states, thenhe is in danger in losing in the same way in 2024. Indeed, as he lost in 2020. Trump has no special power or secret sauce in this election. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/948 "2024-05-30T05:09:41Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > At that point, the Republicans have two possible choices I think you have stated the issue well. > [@](#): > > 1. Ignore the result of the primary, break party rules, piss off a bunch of their Trump voting base, irrevocably fracture the party and lose the election. The party is already a fractured mess, however, and is getting well. Still, you point out that there is significant possible downside to this choice. > [@](#): > > 1. Keep Trump as the nominee, lose the election then try picking up the pieces afterwards, hoping that by the time 2028 rolls around people will no longer be fanatically devoted to a twice losing jail bird. Yeah, IOW, you take the clean (or clean_er_) L. There are other things that are possible, which I have pointed out way back in this thread, the primary one being work out a deal with Trump to exit the race voluntarily. You put in a more “normal” Republican who would still lose but could perhaps help downballot races a bit and help start rebuilding the brand now instead of later. OK, that requires some type of political competence, so, unlikely, right? Yes, but I still think Trump won’t be the nominee. He’s going to be found guilty, and I think he will forthwith go into complete mental and physical collapse. He won’t bow out–he’s gonna _fall_ out. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/949 "2024-05-30T05:16:02Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > There are other things that are possible, which I have pointed out way back in this thread, the primary one being work out a deal with Trump to exit the race voluntarily. I just can’t see this happening. Trump’s ego is too large, and he’s gone all-in on pursuing re-election to the presidency as being his strategy for avoiding prison (as well as to strike back at his opponents). I suspect that he feels that he “owns” the GOP at this point, and he will not willingly give up that control, or the chance at the presidency. The only way that the GOP rids itself of Trump is through his death or incapacitation. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/950 "2024-05-30T05:37:08Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I just can’t see this happening. Trump’s ego is too large, and he’s gone all-in on pursuing re-election to the presidency as being his strategy for avoiding prison (as well as to strike back at his opponents). I suspect that he feels that he “owns” the GOP at this point, and he will not willingly give up that control, or the chance at the presidency. You are right. It would involve a heavy dose of both carrot and stick, but I think these fools are incapable of any action at this point. > [@](#): > > The only way that the GOP rids itself of Trump is through his death or incapacitation. Basically correct, but it may be the case that Trump himself tries to negotiate something so as to leave and grab as many goodies as possible on his way out. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/951 "2024-05-30T13:20:26Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I suspect that he feels that he “owns” the GOP at this point, and he will not willingly give up that control, or the chance at the presidency. He’s not wrong because he does own the GOP. They finalized the sale of its soul a few days following the events of January 6, 2021. Unless Trump is either dead or a babbling incoherent mess of a man (I mean moreso than usual), it’s simply unthinkable that he won’t be the nominee. He owns the GOP lock, stock, and barrel. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/952 "2024-05-30T13:40:03Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Trump has no special power or secret sauce in this election. He has the same special power and secret sauce that he had in 2016 - a spectacularly ignorant, stupid voting base incapable of critical and selfless thought. > [@Aeschines](#): > > thenhe is in danger in losing in the same way in 2024 Or we are in danger of him winning the same way in 2024; this is the problem - there is nothing predictable here, especially if there is a dependence on logic, common sense and bog-standard civility. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/953 "2024-05-30T18:36:20Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > At that point, the Republicans have two possible choices 1. Rule that trump is too sick to serve. Doubtful, but only if trumps signs of feeblemindedness gets so obvious, everyone sees it. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/954 "2024-05-30T18:52:13Z")
They definitely are not brave enough to do this. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/955 "2024-05-30T19:01:28Z")
Probably not. Nor organized enough. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/956 "2024-05-30T20:23:50Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Rule that trump is too sick to serve. Doubtful, but only if trumps signs of feeblemindedness gets so obvious, everyone sees it. Given that RNC leadership was purged earlier this year, and replaced with Trump loyalists, I have a difficult time figuring out who would actually make such a ruling now. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/957 "2024-05-30T21:16:10Z")
HAHAHA, the ball of shit just got bigger and shittier. GUILTY on ALL COUNTS. Fuck you, Trump, you scumbag mutherfucker. You cheap criminal \*\*\*\*. I gloat at your guilty verdict and new status as a felon. I LAUGH AT AND MOCK YOU, you despicable \*\*\*\*. And I laugh at the GOP and their Orange \*\*\*\* FELON Christ. LMFAO!!! Have fun with your candidate, HAHAHAHA! ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/958 "2024-05-30T21:58:38Z")
This won’t change anything. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/959 "2024-05-30T22:13:32Z")
Why would you have such confidence? And _what_ won’t change–the candidates’ (seemingly) running neck and neck? Well, someone has to win… ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/960 "2024-05-30T22:28:22Z")
Sorry, my statement was relative to the subject of the thread — Trump being the Republican nominee for President. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=47) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=49)