# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 49
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/961 "2024-05-30T22:30:07Z")
I mean, it’s a major change in the size of the ball of shit. The implications for Trump’s becoming the nominee will become clearer over the next days and weeks. A lot of polling will be done to see if there are any changes. Trump’s behavior may change as well. It’s an unpredictable mess, but I don’t see any of it _helping_ Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/962 "2024-05-30T22:31:20Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I don’t see any of it _helping_ Trump. This I can agree with, but since the nomination process is pretty much locked in it doesn’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/963 "2024-05-30T22:34:14Z")
The sentencing is days before the convention and may well have to accept his nomination from house arrest or prison. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/964 "2024-05-30T22:55:16Z")
LOL, great optics! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/965 "2024-05-30T22:56:56Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I mean, it’s a major change in the size of the ball of shit. Love this. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/966 "2024-05-30T23:04:59Z")
Haley 2024 ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/967 "2024-05-30T23:07:43Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The implications for Trump’s becoming the nominee will become clearer over the next days and weeks. Checks crystal ball… The usual suspects will chant about corrupt judges, how the country is fallnig apart, etc. Basically just parroting Trump’s tweets. And 99% of the Republicans will fall right into line, pledging thier support and promising to vote for him and campaign for him. I’d be surprised if there were more than two congressional members that will do anything more than “express concern” (looking at you Susan Collins) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/968 "2024-05-30T23:10:50Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > It’s an unpredictable mess, but I don’t see any of it _helping_ Trump. I mean I guess I have to agree with this, since my position all along is that there’s 0.1% chance that he won’t be the nominee. IMO, this probably stamps out even that 0.1%, as the delegates to the RNC will demand even more fanatical obedience to their leader in the face of this grave injustice. Edit: or what @Euphonious_Polemic said. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/969 "2024-05-30T23:37:01Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > The sentencing is days before the convention and may well have to accept his nomination from house arrest or prison. I’m picturing him appearing by video phone at the convention, giving his speech behind a pane of glass, using one of those phones they let prisoners have to talk to visitors. [![](https://i.ibb.co/rycc7f7/IMG-1829.jpg) ](https://i.ibb.co/rycc7f7/IMG-1829.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/970 "2024-05-30T23:41:07Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The usual suspects will chant about corrupt judges, how the country is fallnig apart, etc. Basically just parroting Trump’s tweets. Verily, it shall be so. > [@](#): > > And 99% of the Republicans will fall right into line, pledging thier support and promising to vote for him and campaign for him. So 1% peel off? Because that’s significant. That kind of percentage loss could cost Trump the election. I think it’s going to be more than 1%, however. Why? Because this verdict is a now a past-tense, it-really-happened _fact_ that carries with it the true and verifiable label “convicted felon,” which will wake up at least _some_ of the low- to mid-information Republican-voting (i.e., not MAGA) people. IOW, it’s not something that people can easily tune out or ignore. > [@](#): > > I’d be surprised if there were more than two congressional members that will do anything more than “express concern” (looking at you Susan Collins) A bunch of GOP Representatives just up and quit not too long ago, and maybe it will trigger a few more of those. Most all of 'um are in the MAGA tank now, however, so I don’t think it’s going to result in any kind of negative Republican commentary. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/971 "2024-05-30T23:42:02Z")
LMFAO. Let it be so! ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/972 "2024-05-30T23:42:58Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Haley 2024 Should this somehow happen, I’m pretty sure Biden would be toast. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2024, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/973 "2024-05-30T23:44:17Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Should this somehow happen, I’m pretty sure Biden would be toast. I agree–the toast of the town! ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/974 "2024-05-31T00:00:01Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > I’m picturing him appearing by video phone at the convention, giving his speech behind a pane of glass, Think _Midnight Express_ except with fawning delegates instead of a pair of tits. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/975 "2024-05-31T00:04:25Z")
Hard disagree, but whatever. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/976 "2024-05-31T00:22:39Z")
Nope, a significant number of Trump supporters would stay home out of protest. Biden would win big. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/977 "2024-05-31T00:23:32Z")
Right. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/978 "2024-05-31T00:32:09Z")
It’s orders of magnitude a better prediction than the subject of this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/979 "2024-05-31T00:32:38Z")
Well she doesnt have to win the popular vote (which she wouldn’t), but I think enough of Biden’s voters that pushed him over the top against Trump in '20 would also stay home, seeing as they’re not so keen on Biden right now (youth, Blacks, Arabs/Muslims, middle class people who are feeling an economic pinch). With a “less evil” Republican on the ticket, they might feel safe to sit it out and not NEED to cast a vote for a president they don’t like anymore. Maga base in red states can sit at home and pout all they want. In swing states, the loss of youth, Black, and Arab voters might just be enough to push it to Haley. Plus those who feel Biden’s not doing enough to help give us cheaper groceries (suburban women who loathe Trump) just might feel good _enough_ about voting for Haley. Be careful what your wish for. A young, energetic woman who looks like a 180 from Trump just may be able to out-campaign Biden in all the places he can’t afford to lose. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/980 "2024-05-31T01:51:59Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > This won’t change anything. Yeah, it will. The MAGAs will still vote trump. The Dems will still vote Biden. The issue is the youth vote and the independents. trump- baring death or some really serious medical issues- will still be the nominee, even if he has to run the campaign while incarcerated. > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Haley 2024 Hell no. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The usual suspects will chant about corrupt judges, how the country is fallnig apart, etc. Johnson did within minutes. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Should this somehow happen, I’m pretty sure Biden would be toast. Not with trump still alive. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=48) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=50)