# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1001 "2024-06-01T21:37:34Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I totally agree, except that we do not know how long it will hurt him. Well, if he is imprisoned- even under close house arrest- for a whole year- campaigning would be really tough. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1002 "2024-06-01T21:50:30Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I totally agree, except that we do not know how long it will hurt him. Felony conviction would seem to be on a different level than, say, a press conference gaffe or a flat debate performance. The conviction doesn’t strike me as something that gets all that much smaller with distance. If it matters to a voter, it keeps on mattering. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1003 "2024-06-01T21:54:07Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > But the idea that it would _help_ him is ridiculous. I think that the only legitimate way it could help him would be in further galvanizing his true-believer MAGA base, getting them to continue to donate to him, and ensuring that he gets high voter turnout from them in swing states. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1004 "2024-06-01T22:00:51Z")
It can, but there’s no way it’s a net positive. The MAGA folks energized are not going to outweigh the Republican voters who weren’t thrilled with him or the independents he’s desperately going to need to win swing states. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1005 "2024-06-01T22:01:57Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I think that the only legitimate way it could help him would be in further galvanizing his true-believer MAGA base, getting them to continue to donate to him, and ensuring that he gets high voter turnout from them in swing states. This assumes that the money will go to GOTV activities, as opposed to paying off the State of New York/EJC. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1006 "2024-06-01T22:08:26Z")
Of the Republicans in the House and the Senate that supported Trump during the trial, are there any that have backed away from supporting him now that he has been convicted? ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1007 "2024-06-01T22:14:56Z")
That mythical creature exists only in our imaginations. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1008 "2024-06-01T22:27:35Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > I totally agree, except that we do not know how long it will hurt him. > > Felony conviction would seem to be on a different level than, say, a press conference gaffe or a flat debate performance. The conviction doesn’t strike me as something that gets all that much smaller with distance. If it matters to a voter, it keeps on mattering. I agree. Plus, this conviction is not something that just happens and is over. There will be sentencing right before the convention, etc. etc. Moreover, this is the biggest gut punch that Trump has ever received in his life. The first time he has ever been held accountable for his crimes in a way that is meaningful to him (perhaps the recent fraud judgment, since it was so large, is a distant second). The scumbag is now _wounded._ I think he’s going to unravel and spiral and disintegrate in short order. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1009 "2024-06-01T22:33:39Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Moreover, this is the biggest gut punch that Trump has ever received in his life. The first time he has ever been held accountable for his crimes in a way that is meaningful to him (perhaps the recent fraud judgment, since it was so large, is a distant second). The scumbag is now _wounded._ I think he’s going to unravel and spiral and disintegrate in short order. The fraud case was quite a gut punch to Trump because it hit him right where he lives. He’s been telling us for years what a successful and wealthy businessman he is and the trial showed the world this wasn’t the case. Instead of a saavy businessman it exposed him as a grifter who was incapable of conducting any sort of business without fraud. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1010 "2024-06-01T22:58:22Z")
Good point! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1011 "2024-06-02T00:03:13Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the Electoral college. And violent insurrections. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1012 "2024-06-02T00:06:05Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Of the Republicans in the House and the Senate that supported Trump during the trial, are there any that have backed away from supporting him now that he has been convicted? I dont know- are there any? > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > And violent insurrections. Well, just a few tourists egged on by Antifa. 🤪 🙄 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1013 "2024-06-02T00:07:48Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I dont know- are there any? I ask questions when I want to know the answers. Asking them when I already know the answers seems kind of stupid to me. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1014 "2024-06-02T00:32:27Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Of the Republicans in the House and the Senate that supported Trump during the trial, are there any that have backed away from supporting him now that he has been convicted? Not that I’m aware of. Larry Hogan, the Republican who was formerly the governor of Maryland, and who is now running for the Senate, is one of the few remaining moderate Republicans at the national level. After Thursday’s verdict, Hogan [posted on X](https://x.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1796283536565014873): > [@Larry Hogan](#): > > “Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process. At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders—regardless of party—must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship. We must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.” Moments later, a Trump campaign advisor, Chris LaCivita, posted: > [@](#): > > “You just ended your campaign” In an interview that evening: > [@](#): > > LaCivita, in an interview Thursday night, described Hogan’s statement as a strategic error, saying the former governor risked alienating some of the “98 percent” of GOP voters he needs to win in a state where Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans. > > “There are a lot of Republicans who are going to be upset with him for making that comment, and he needs all the Republicans he can get to win,” LaCivita said. > > “From a political standpoint, it makes no sense to issue a statement that can be considered by us to be a criticism. It was stupid,” LaCivita said. “He didn’t have to say anything. Say, ‘It’s a sad day in America.’ But no, he had to make a point. If he’s going to make his point, we’re going to make our point. You take a shot, you’re going to get a shot back. That’s how it works in politics.” So, I strongly suspect that all of the GOPers who attended the trial to support Trump are absolutely going to stay in line, as that’s why they were there in the first place. > **[Hogan provokes ire within Trumpworld: ‘You just ended your campaign’](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/05/31/hogan-comment-ire-trump/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzE3MjE0NDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzE4NTk2Nzk5LCJpYXQiOjE3MTcyMTQ0MDAsImp0aSI6IjgxNjAwNTI2LTAxMWQtNDVjMy1hMTFjLWUyOTA1MzlkZjcxYiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9kYy1tZC12YS8yMDI0LzA1LzMxL2hvZ2FuLWNvbW1lbnQtaXJlLXRydW1wLyJ9.-fbYF_kCxEmp689byrKNbw51y2TPHWNo5l7eB_-q6Ng&itid=gfta)** > > His call to “respect the verdict” on Trump is a new test of whether the Maryland Senate nominee can win support from Democrats and fellow Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1015 "2024-06-02T01:34:02Z")
None that I’ve heard of. Mo Brooks was speaking out against Trump, but he’s been speaking out against Trump since 2022, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1016 "2024-06-02T02:22:36Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Of the Republicans in the House and the Senate that supported Trump during the trial, are there any that have backed away from supporting him now that he has been convicted? Doubtful. Instead, they’re doubling down. [Senate conservatives vow to oppose DOJ funding boost, Joe Biden nominees (thehill.com)](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4696991-senate-conservatives-vow-to-oppose-doj-funding-boost-biden-nominees-after-trump-verdict/) > The eight senators who signed the statement say they won’t vote to confirm the administration’s political and judicial appointees or allow expedited consideration on the Senate floor of Democratic bills not directly related to public safety. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1017 "2024-06-02T02:29:07Z")
I think that puts to bed any idea that Trump won’t be the Republican Party nominee in 2024. “The line they just will not cross” does not exist. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1018 "2024-06-02T02:35:19Z")
It’s going to be a loonnnggg month and a half to the convention… ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1019 "2024-06-02T02:36:24Z")
This has ever been the weakness of the argument that “they” will stop Trump from getting the nomination. Who is “they”? Like, name them. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1020 "2024-06-02T02:39:35Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I think that puts to bed any idea that Trump won’t be the Republican Party nominee in 2024. “The line they just will not cross” does not exist. > [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > There is ZERO chance that Trump will not be the Republican nominee. > > And you may quote me on that. As I said… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=52)