# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2024, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1081 "2024-06-28T03:02:46Z")
Sure. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2024, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1082 "2024-06-28T03:06:56Z")
I was extremely impressed by Trump’s debate performance. He looked and sounded great–for a liar fascist dictator wannabe. I thought the SOTU Biden would show up–he absolutely didn’t. The illusion, then is that Trump is strong in the absolute, when in fact that is not the case. IOW, it’s an extremely fucked up, messed up situation. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2024, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1083 "2024-06-29T18:35:55Z")
Well… the day after the debate… Biden gave this super-strong speech in North Carolina. Dude, where were you the night before?! OTOH, Trump had a rally in which the same lunacy and nothing else was on the menu. Oh, and [Ben Meiselas reports](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O4hoJjtOn4) that Biden is UP in post-debate polls. Yeah, you heard that right! No bounce from the Orange Führer’s “strong” but unhinged debate performance–and sentencing for his 34 _felonies_ right around the corner? Oh SHIT, MAGA, whatcha gonna do?!?! ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1084 "2024-07-01T00:57:21Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > - The aforementioned shit ball reaches critical mass. It becomes CV that Trump will definitely lose the General–if he’s even alive by then. The media are hinting at if not openly predicting downballot disaster. > - A cabal arises within the GOP to push Trump out by any means. The may promise open civil war in the GOP if Trump is the nominee. > - A: Trump does the unthinkable–he bows out of the race and supports Haley (needless to say, Trump is heavily bribed in order to do this). > B: Or Trump is somehow pushed out of the nomination at the convention. IIRC, it is against the rules to nominate anyone with felony indictments. If not, the rules can be changed to something like this. Well, looking back at your predictions from the OP, Aeschines, it looks like you were pretty darn accurate, just about the wrong candidate ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1085 "2024-07-01T00:59:31Z")
I still don’t think the conviction has caught up to Trump yet, and probably won’t until after sentencing. Despite the polls (which we have a lot of reasons to doubt), I can’t see many outside of the die hard Republicans and MAGA faithful voting for a felon. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2024, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1086 "2024-07-01T01:22:12Z")
I think that’s only true if he’s given an effective punishment. He very well might get a slap on the wrist. If people don’t already care about his conviction, they won’t change his mind once he walks away a free man. If I were the judge, I’d give him house arrest. A token punishment wouldn’t be enough, and he would definitely violate any restrictions on his actions or speech short of detainment. So I’d just cut to the chase and detain him since he’d violate his probation anyway. On the other hand, jail time would be too much of a burden on the state. But I’m not the judge. Maybe they will give him a light and easily thwarted punishment. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1087 "2024-07-15T19:38:16Z")
I’m just going to go ahead and say I was WRONG on this–though I almost ended up right in a way I hadn’t expected. Obviously, we live in a time of total absolute chaos, and I have no idea what is going to happen at this point. What I can say, however, is that, if Donald Trump were to be elected again, the US will come apart within months (that is, I reject the hypothesis that everyone will say, “Aw shucks, he’s the prez again, so I guess we gotta obey!”). ---
**Author:** ![TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thegunismightierthanthepen/32/2981_2.png) [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheGunIsMightierThanThePen)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1088 "2024-07-15T19:45:23Z")
So you’re 0 for 2 on Trump not debating Biden and now this. Um, please start a thread titled “Trump will be elected president in 2024” 🤪 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1089 "2024-07-15T19:48:43Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I’m just going to go ahead and say I was WRONG on this–though I almost ended up right in a way I hadn’t expected. Have you considered telling the Mods that your thread was hijacked by Bizarro Aeschines? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1090 "2024-07-15T19:50:07Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > What I can say, however, is that, if Donald Trump were to be elected again, the US will come apart within months How literally do you mean? Like “I should cash out my 401K before it’s too late and convert it into gold” literally? Though either way, I suppose it’s probably better than the “just go along” option… ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1091 "2024-07-15T19:51:52Z")
That would be funnier if I could tell precisely what you meant. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1092 "2024-07-15T19:53:57Z")
It was a riff on Bizarro Superman- [Bizarro - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bizarro) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1093 "2024-07-15T19:54:03Z")
More like a thread titled, “There are no more rules any more, so I am only going to predict total chaos in US politics for the foreseeable future, which is actually unforseeable.” FWIW, I feel dumber about the debate thread, although a ton of people in the media, some major, were saying the exact same thing. I feel less stupid for what I’ve said here, since now I see that we have no guiding principles to work with at all any more. Total black box going forward. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1094 "2024-07-15T19:54:37Z")
I know but, which thing in this big thread was Bizarro? ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1095 "2024-07-15T19:59:19Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I’m just going to go ahead and say I was WRONG on this–though I almost ended up right in a way I hadn’t expected. Well, good on ya for coming back to face up. It’s easy to sit on the sideline and never make an interesting call. This thread does make me think of another proposition: **Should Trump lose the 2024 general election, what prevents him from being the Republicans 2028 nomination?** Asked another way: While Trump is alive, what – if anything – wrests the the Republican part away from his control? And heck – say Trump lives into his mid-90s. Is he the Republican candidate in 2032, 2036, and 2040? Again – how does the party get out from underneath him? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1096 "2024-07-15T20:04:04Z")
Everything I’ve said about Trump’s dementia has been true. He’s in terrible shape. I doubt that either Biden nor Trump would make it to the end of their next term with the capacity to do the job. Not even the capacity to do a Reagan-style job with handlers trying to hide stuff. And in the case of Trump, I think we’ll have secession and/or revolution within a few months, so there’s that as well. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1097 "2024-07-15T20:17:57Z")
Moderating: And on that note, I think this thread is done. Closed as no longer a matter for discussion. Please start new threads to discuss other matters. Thanks, all! ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/1098 "2024-07-15T20:18:09Z")
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