# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/121 "2024-01-30T20:55:37Z")
What percentage of Americans identify as Republican? What is Trumps support among independents and moderates? What did half of Haley Iowa voters say about a Trump v Biden general election matchup? Haley got 20% in Iowa. So 10% of REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS in Iowa said they will not support Trump in the general. What do you get when a GOP nominee gets only 90% of his own party, and very low support among independents? Also, what happened to the “Red Wave” in 2022 that I’m sure you were just as confident about? Recent elections have been decided by unlikely voters, which are also people that don’t answer polls. Let me put it this way, can you identify the voters that Trump has _gained_ since January 6th? What voters voted against him in 2020, watched him try to erase their votes and force himself on the country, and then thought, you know what, I _do_ want this guy in the White House afterall? There is an enormous amount of money and media attention (driven by money) to make this seem even and like a horse race. The result of this is the stuff you are posting right now. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/122 "2024-01-30T21:08:29Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > What percentage of Americans identify as Republican? What is Trumps support among independents and moderates? You aren’t going to like the answer. Trump leads Biden by 11% among independents: [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4416654-trump-leads-biden-with-independent-voters-by-11-points-poll/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4416654-trump-leads-biden-with-independent-voters-by-11-points-poll/) > [@Airbeck](#): > > Haley got 20% in Iowa. So 10% of REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS in Iowa said they will not support Trump in the general. What do you get when a GOP nominee gets only 90% of his own party, and very low support among independents? I don’t kmow how to refute this without talking anout Biden’s weaknesses in his own party, but we are straying into hijack territory again so I will just give you a link to ponder: > **[President: Democratic primary Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/123 "2024-01-30T21:12:16Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > You aren’t going to like the answer. Trump leads Biden by 11% among independents: That is shifting as the Consumer sentiment is going way up. This was posted 6 hours ago: > **[Biden bounce: Up with Democrats and independents, catching Trump](https://gazette.com/news/wex/biden-bounce-up-with-democrats-and-independents-catching-trump/article_6478984e-0379-51ec-9fa7-d1aba9da31ba.html)** > > Biden appears to have stopped his bleeding in the 2024 election polls, likely helped by indications the economy is also bouncing back. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/124 "2024-01-30T21:15:30Z")
Logic would dictate that internal polls are most accurate because of how critical good data is to campaign personnel. I’m not sure how much logic dictates the Trump train these days, though. A couple of years ago 538 did a piece on how frequently parties released their internal polls and how that correlated with election results but damned if I can find it now. Basically, the more favorable the polling, the more of them were released to the public. Therefore, the side releasing the most was probably doing better. This is Don’s nomination to lose as long as he’s not drooling or defecating under the spotlight and even then enough support might remain. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/125 "2024-01-30T21:17:50Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > That is shifting as the Consumer sentiment is going way up. This was posted 6 hours ago: Maybe so. That’s moving the goalposts almost out of sight. But we are trying to determine if Trump will be the nominee. My point is that right now he’s beating Biden in pretty much every measure, so of course he will be the nominee. Maybe that will change. Maybe the very next lawsuit will find the magic combo to wake people up. But as of today, it looks to me that either all that stuff had no effect on Trump’s popularity at all, or made it stronger. If you believe that stuff hurt him, then the conclusion would be that without it he would be even more popular with the American people. In either event, he’s still going to be the nominee unless something major happens to change that. More of what’s been happening won’t do it. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/126 "2024-01-30T21:31:10Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > But we are trying to determine if Trump will be the nominee. My point is that right now he’s beating Biden in pretty much every measure, so of course he will be the nominee I don’t think that even matters, what matters is how he compares to his opponents in the primaries, and in that measurement he’s even further ahead. And unlike the general election, the primaries are happening **now**. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/127 "2024-01-30T21:33:40Z")
Props to the OP for making a prediction. Here’s why he’s wrong: 1. Trump only has to threaten to run as an independent. That divides the GOP vote and hands the election to Biden. 2. The only advantage to ejecting Trump is winning in 2024. And that scenario doesn’t game out: see above. Professional politicians care most about their own prospects: starting a coup against Trump has no upside and a lot of personal downside. They couldn’t conspire their way out of a paper bag. 3. Losing the presidency in 2024 doesn’t automatically translate into poor career prospects for the GOP pol. There are always future elections, future lobbying gigs, future FOX appearances, future lectures for some. > Together, the factors are turning into a big ball of shit that is gaining speed and size as it rolls down Shit Mountain. The acceleration toward doom is palpable. Yes, and I can’t yet process the implications of this, other than ruling out certain scenarios. My take: things take longer than you think, then they occur faster. Trump will win Super Tuesday. Critical mass happens later. But… does anyone believe that a GOP nominated Trump would get less than 40% of the vote in November? Sure the GOP could lose in a landslide, but that doesn’t imply career doom for most of them. ETA: So how does this chaos play out? What if Trump loses his marbles in a way that destroys GOP turnout? I don’t think that alters the fundamentals of the above. I do think that there will be lots of calls for adults to take back the GOP. And that they will amount to little more than a modest boost to a handful of GOP pols. Sanity won’t come back until Fox News is transformed or destroyed. (Destruction would occur if eg if cable viewers who don’t watch Fox no longer subsidize them heavily with their cable fees.) ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/128 "2024-01-30T21:44:21Z")
A lot (most) of the GOP old guard hate Trump because he’s broken the way things are done in Washington, and they were very comfortable with the way things were done. And they sense that their wing of the party is losing power and influence, and don’t much like it. The same thing was true of the Democratic old guard when the new, more progressive members started showing up. Washington was a cozy place, much more congenial on the cocktail circuit than in public, with everyone knowing how the game is played and how to profit from it. That’s been changing in both parties, and the dinosaurs don’t much like it. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/129 "2024-01-30T21:59:47Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Washington was a cozy place, much more congenial on the cocktail circuit than in public, with everyone knowing how the game is played and how to profit from it. That’s been changing in both parties, and the dinosaurs don’t much like it. This sounds like the 1970’s, when [members actually lived in the D.C. area and had cross-aisle friends](https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2018/10/14/congress-doesnt-live-here-anymore-secrets-hill/1265733002/): > [@](#): > > Washington used to be a parochial town, Cleaver said. Living here helped members of Congress build the kinds of relationships that helped them govern. They played golf and went out to dinner together with their families on weekends. In this bipartisan bonhomie, everybody knew everybody. > > “It’s difficult to call somebody a nasty name when your kid and their kid are in the Cub Scouts together,” Cleaver said. > > But sometime in the 1980s and 1990s, gentleman politics gave way to populist zeal. Newer, younger representatives with anti-elitist sensibilities began nudging the House into permanent campaign mode. If GOP politicians actually thought that getting rid of Trump would allow them to live in the cozy and congenial manner of their twentieth century predecessors, maybe the premise of this thread would be correct. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/130 "2024-01-30T22:21:30Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think his health alone is going to cause him to drop out or be dropped. This is the one part of your predictions that i think has a decent likelihood of happening. He’s looking increasingly raddled lately; the bronzer is getting thicker, no doubt to try to hide just how bad he looks. It seems to me that either a physical or mental breakdown (or both) will take him out – though my preference for that to happen would be after he gets the nom but before the election. Imagine how that would bollix things up for the GOP! But short of that I’m doubtful he doesn’t get nominated, for all the reasons others have pointed out. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/131 "2024-01-30T22:36:47Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > That’s been changing in both parties, and the dinosaurs don’t much like it. You make it sound like it’s better now. It’s not. "Dinosaurs? Really? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/132 "2024-01-30T23:27:46Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Trump was supposed to win NH by 20%. > > How’d that work out? I don’t know. Let’s check. [Here are the polls and RCP averages](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/new-hampshire). It does say that Trump was ahead by an average of 19.3 points. But that number also included 8% for DeSantis. He dropped out late and apparently all his votes went to Haley. So Trump won by 11.3 points. Looks like the polls were right on. > [@bordelond](#): > > Perhaps … but didn’t the GOP primary polling percentages fail to be realized in both Iowa and New Hampshire? Didn’t Trump come back to the pack more than the polls shows (albeit getting over 50% each time)? Looking at that same page shows that the late polls after DeSantis dropped out indicated that his voters would turn to Trump. They did not. But all but one of the earlier polls had him at a lower percentage than he actually received, hardly coming back to the pack. In Iowa, the average for Trump was 52.5%. He got 51.0%. For something like an early caucus, with major disruption by the weather, I’d call that a direct hit. As I’ve been saying for multiple elections: don’t pay attention to any single poll. Only the running average of the polls are at all indicative, and trends are worth more than a daily average. ---
**Author:** ![f.coli](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/eada6e/32.png) [@f.coli](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/f.coli)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/133 "2024-01-30T23:29:57Z")
Or he will run as an independent. That would be ideal, because that will split the republican vote and Joe would win in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/134 "2024-01-30T23:46:23Z")
OK, now do the Red Wave that wasn’t. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/135 "2024-01-31T02:12:16Z")
While some polling firms badly missed the mark, in the aggregate the polls had [one of their most accurate cycles in recent history](https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1590353266797182976). As a result, [FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/) had a pretty good year, too. [Media proclamations of a “red wave”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEg2eXO4-kg) occurred largely _despite_ polls that showed a close race for the U.S. Senate and a close [generic congressional ballot](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2022/). It was the pundits who made the red wave narrative, not the data. [How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20FiveThirtyEight's%20forecasts,wave%20narrative%2C%20not%20the%20data). ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/136 "2024-01-31T02:19:09Z")
The truth is out there. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/137 "2024-01-31T02:21:11Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > It was the pundits who made the red wave narrative, not the data. They do this to “sell” the news. Gotta keep it interesting. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/138 "2024-01-31T13:31:54Z")
I heard on Bloomberg news this morning (a left leaning news organization) that Trump leads Biden in the six major swing state polls. If that holds, many Republicans will hold their noses and vote for Trump in the primary. I think that holds in most primaries - the candidate most likely to beat the other guy’s candidate will get that party’s support. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/139 "2024-01-31T13:39:40Z")
Some CEOs who at first were alarmed at a second Trump term seem to have taken the view that it would be good for business. Or they’re just hedging their bets in case he does win again and decides to lash out at them. > **[Top CEOs opposed Trump's 2020 election lies. Now some are softening toward him](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/top-ceos-opposed-trumps-2020-election-lies-now/story?id=106772856)** > > High-profile CEOs have spoken about prospects if Trump wins. Also, shouldn’t there be a period after “him” in that headline? Sloppy. ---
**Author:** ![phs3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8491ac/32.png) [@phs3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phs3)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/140 "2024-01-31T13:52:25Z")
That’s my fear: Trump is candidate, many R voters say “no”, either don’t vote or grit their teeth and vote Biden. Anyone else, they heave a sigh of relief and vote R. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834.md?page=8)