# Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834 "2024-01-29T20:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 321
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2024, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834/321 "2024-02-26T21:51:43Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The conventional wisdom on polls right now is that a significant percentage of those who are asked are imagining their ideal candidate getting the nomination instead of the clear forerunners, and this affects Biden more than Trump at this point. Once the nominations are set, the polls will look different. This makes a lot of sense to me: > [@The anti-Trump resistance has become exhausted](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-trump-resistance-has-become-exhausted/997846/129): > > I think the bolded is generally true right now across the U.S. – but for the sake of precision, let’s note that this article is specific to Michigan voters. They’re a swing state, of course, so what’s happening in Michigan is important to watch. An aside: I believe that the “not looking forward to Biden-Trump II” factor has been a BIG confounder in head-to-head polls attempting to get an over-the-horizon view at November’s general election. Some respondents are doubtlessly giving “protest answ… EDIT: I just wish there was something a little firmer to grasp onto regarding this particular confounder. EDIT2: Maybe Nikki Haley’s support among _Republican_ voters in the primaries to date (as opposed to cross-primary-voting Democratic voters) is at least an oblique view on that potential “something firmer”. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-wont-be-the-republican-party-nominee-in-2024/996834)._