# Trump's about to go into a foreign policy death spiral. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 13, 2019, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905 "2019-05-13T16:17:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/121 "2019-05-16T17:42:55Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > There are already rumors that Trump will fire Bolton. Personally, I don’t think Trump himself is looking to go to war with Iran, and that it would take some extreme geopolitical scenarios to force his hand. However, if he felt it would it would save him from losing the 2020 election, then I think he’d do it in a heartbeat. I was rather surprised that Bolton was hired in the first place, because if someone insists on subservience the way Trump does, Bolton would seem like the last guy to hire. Bolton is fucking dangerous even in a moderate, reasonable administration, but put him in an environment where he’s unchained and sitting next to a president who’s unhinged, and all bets are off on what happens next. Just having him in the White House greatly increases the possibility for war. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/122 "2019-05-16T17:46:13Z")
I never in a million years thought I’d say anything remotely positive about the bow-tied fuck stick, but he just might be the one to put an end to this madness – at least with regard to Iran. [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/05/15/tucker\_carlson\_how\_is\_a\_war\_with\_iran\_in\_americas\_interest\_in\_any\_way.html](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/05/15/tucker_carlson_how_is_a_war_with_iran_in_americas_interest_in_any_way.html) Remember, folks, whatever someone on FNC says \> than whatever any of Trump’s aides say, even if some of his aides used to be guests on FNC. Trump lives in TV Land. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/123 "2019-05-16T17:50:00Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > Of course, if Trump sees this headline: > > [It’s Bolton’s World. Trump’s Just Living In It](http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kahl-wolfsthal-john-bolton-trump-north-korea-iran-venezuela-20190514-story.html) > > then it’s over for Bolton. I saw a post on Twitter’s #MAGA thread (a shitshow in itself) where a guy said “Bolton should go - we can #MAGA without the Globalist agenda!” Bolton - a GLOBALIST?!? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/124 "2019-05-16T17:51:18Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Okay, that’s a good start, what does “comes down on Iran’s side” look like? Strongly-worded letters? Joining their Iranian brothers in taking up arms against the wicked imperialist Americans? Something in between? Little Nemo suggested they might blow off sanctions. Perhaps ceasing international military exercises with the US military? F-35 sales plummet? They revoke American visas? Kick us out of military bases in their territory? It could be something as simple as not allowing American forces to use their territory as a staging area. That’s always been a major factor in American wars in the Middle East. We need some local country to allow us to locate our airbases and supply depots in their territory. Otherwise we’re trying to fight a war with very limited air support and supplies. The scary part is that while most Presidents would hesitate before sending American troops into combat under such vulnerable circumstances, I worry that Trump would jump in. And by jump in, I mean he would be willing to send other people in. Old Bone Spurs himself would stay safe in Washington and tweet about the parade he was planning. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/125 "2019-05-16T17:54:00Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > I saw a post on Twitter’s #MAGA thread (a shitshow in itself) where a guy said “Bolton should go - we can #MAGA without the Globalist agenda!” > > Bolton - a GLOBALIST?!? :dubious: Bolton’s a globalist in the sense that he’s aware other countries exist (even if he mostly regards them as targets). That awareness puts him a step ahead of many Trump supporters. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/126 "2019-05-16T18:00:07Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > I agree with your odds based on your end result, but if he’s suggesting Trump will, even if he believes he lost, claim voter fraud and contest the vote beyond reason all the while riling his base into possible violence, then I thing his odds are right. It’s a pretty safe bet. Trump claimed there was massive voter fraud in 2016 and he won that election. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/127 "2019-05-16T18:45:57Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Are polls allowed in Elections? I’d like a quick poll right here: Does this development make you proud of (or sad about) the present Administration. I’ll check ‘Sad.’ How do our Republican Dopers vote? Not much of either one. I don’t really care very much what Merkel thinks. There’s a tiny bit of pride in reading things like “the U.S. dominance of technology” and a tiny bit of sadness at the talk of a trade war (I favor / value free trade more than President Trump). ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/128 "2019-05-18T09:08:52Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > …I think there’s > … > a 15% (\*) chance that the Ds will win by a large enough margin to avert R mischief. > a 5% chance, Trump and the Rs will cheat post-election and be successful > > (…Pennsylvania has a D Governor and an R state assembly — I’ll assume that keeps most R cheating in Penns. in check; lower the \* estimate to 5% to 10% if not.) [Hari Selden linked to a page](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Pres/Maps/May16.html#item-7) which addressed my question. Based on that I’m changing my estimates: _ **There’s a 10% chance that the Ds will win the EV on Election Day, but GOP malice will cause a reversed result to be passed to Congress.** _ In many or most of these scanarios Scotus will decide: Chief Roberts will cast the deciding vote if RBG is still alive, Kavanaugh the deciding vote if RBG has passed. > [@](#): > > In Art. II, Sec. 1, Clause 1, the Constitution states that the state legislatures have the power to determine how the presidential electors are chosen. Generally they exercise this power by holding an election and then awarding all the state’s electors to the winner (except in Maine and Nebraska). But they don’t have to do it like that. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three crucial states, Republicans control the legislatures. They could decide to regard the election as advisory only and then have the real election for the electors held by the legislature. All three states have Democratic governors, but the wording of the Constitution says nothing about passing a law, which means that those three governors would have no opportunity to exercise a veto over a scheme like this. Could this happen? Well, it happened in 2000, when the Florida legislature held a special session to award its 25 electoral votes to George W. Bush. Would Republican senators complain? It is certain that Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) would express “dismay” and Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) might offer his “concern,” but there is nothing to stop the state legislatures from doing whatever they want. If the case made it to the Supreme Court, the justices would probably rule 5-4 that the wording of the Constitution is clear: the legislatures are free to do whatever they want. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/129 "2019-05-18T12:07:53Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > [Hari Selden linked to a page](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Pres/Maps/May16.html#item-7) which addressed my question. Based on that I’m changing my estimates: _ **There’s a 10% chance that the Ds will win the EV on Election Day, but GOP malice will cause a reversed result to be passed to Congress.** _ In many or most of these scanarios Scotus will decide: Chief Roberts will cast the deciding vote if RBG is still alive, Kavanaugh the deciding vote if RBG has passed. If it goes to the House, contrary to what some might assume, the Republicans would have the advantage. They have a majority of state delegations with each having one vote. That’s what I was referring to when I said they might try “crazy shit” next year. Their goal is to block Democrats from getting to 270. If it’s within a few electors, they will contest the results and try to send it to the House. If the Dems can still win but win by just a slim majority, they will try to politically poison the next president and cast doubt on his/her legitimacy. They might even incite violence. I don’t put anything past these people anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/131 "2019-05-18T17:17:24Z")
> [@mbm789](#): > > Trump is incapable both of learning and of rational [decision](https://cricketworld2019.com/euro-t20-slam-2019-schedule-and-squads/) making. I like this one sentence all by itself like this; it totally fucking rocks! ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/132 "2019-05-18T18:53:13Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > [Hari Selden linked to a page](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Pres/Maps/May16.html#item-7) which addressed my question. Based on that I’m changing my estimates: _ **There’s a 10% chance that the Ds will win the EV on Election Day, but GOP malice will cause a reversed result to be passed to Congress.** _ In many or most of these scanarios Scotus will decide: Chief Roberts will cast the deciding vote if RBG is still alive, Kavanaugh the deciding vote if RBG has passed. Constitution of Pennsylvania, Article IV § 15 **§ 15. Approval of bills; vetoes.** Every bill which shall have passed both Houses shall be presented to the Governor; if he approves he shall sign it, but if he shall not approve he shall return it with his objections to the House in which it shall have originated, which House shall enter the objections at large upon their journal, and proceed to re-consider it. If after such re-consideration, two-thirds of all the members elected to that house shall agree to pass the bill, it shall be sent with the objections to the other House by which likewise it shall be re-considered, and if approved by two-thirds of all the members elected to that House it shall be a law; but in such cases the votes of both Houses shall be determined by yeas and nays, and the names of the members voting for and against the bill shall be entered on the journals of each House, respectively. If any bill shall not be returned by the Governor within ten days after it shall have been presented to him, the same shall be a law in like manner as if he had signed it, unless the General Assembly, by their adjournment, prevent its return, in which case it shall be a law, unless he shall file the same, with his objections, in the office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth, and give notice thereof by public proclamation within 30 days after such adjournment. A quick check on Ballotpedia shows that the Pennsylvania State Senate is split 22D/26R with 2 vacancies, while the Pennsylvania House of Representatives is split 93D/109R with 1 vacancy. In order to overcome a veto from Governor Wolf (D) there would need to be 6 Democrat defectors in the Senate and 26 Democrat defectors in the House. These defectors would almost certainly be disowned by the national Democratic party if they literally voted to award electoral votes to the Republican candidate. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but it’s a stretch. Each defector would need to represent a region that voted heavily for the Republican candidate, and would need to have little fear about losing national party support. I think a law splitting Pennsylvania’s electoral vote might be a more amicable option. ~Max ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/133 "2019-05-18T20:55:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Not much of either one. I don’t really care very much what Merkel thinks. There’s a tiny bit of pride in reading things like “the U.S. dominance of technology” and a tiny bit of sadness at the talk of a trade war (I favor / value free trade more than President Trump). Except it’s not just Merkel, it’s Germany and the European Union. I am floored that you shrug off the loss of the American moral high ground. I may not have known that term as a child, but growing up in Canada in the 60’s, I knew that it was the US that was on the side of liberty. Now, not so much. And I feel sick about it. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/134 "2019-05-18T22:03:49Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Are polls allowed in Elections? I’d like a quick poll right here: Does this development make you proud of (or sad about) the present Administration. I’ll check ‘Sad.’ How do our Republican Dopers vote? It’s stunning and sad when you consider that Republicans were once known as the foreign policy party, but they’ve traded in globalism for a ethno-nationalist oligarchy, so through that prism, it’s to be expected. Vladimir Putin and the world’s authoritarians/oligarchs continue to reap their rewards from what happened here on November 8, 2016. The US is losing its influence on global dominance. There will be some who believe that we can be fine by being insular and nationalist, but I don’t think they’ve calculated the consequences correctly. ---
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2019, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/135 "2019-05-18T23:02:03Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > I am floored that you shrug off the loss of the American moral high ground. I may not have known that term as a child, but growing up in Canada in the 60’s, I knew that it was the US that was on the side of liberty. Now, not so much. And I feel sick about it. try being a citizen ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2019, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/136 "2019-05-19T03:51:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Let’s hypothesize momentarily that later this week President Trump has just had _enough_. Perhaps it was one mean tweet too many, or the beady little eyes of the spokesperson on TV, but for whatever unjustified reason you want to imagine, President Trump decides, “that’s it, we’re doing this” and orders the USAF and USN to bomb the IRGC out of existence. A massive bombing campaign ensues. What does the rest of the world do? > > Do you think it will be “Followed by global sanctions, freezing of U.S. assets overseas, widespread boycotts of U.S. exports and large-scale disinvestment”? I don’t think that’s likely, even if the hypothesized military action doesn’t have the EU’s seal of approval. Do you though? Remember what happened in World War II? Once one country starts acting crazy and everyone else feels threatened, they put aside their differences. So there would be meetings between representatives of Russia, China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, etc. and the common topic would be _“Listen, I don’t like you and you don’t like me but we both want to keep on living. America has apparently gone crazy and none of us know who they’ll attack next. So we all have to work together to defend ourselves. Once we’ve made sure America is no longer a possible threat, we can go back to hating each other.”_ Of course, an idiot like Trump and the lesser idiots who support him won’t care. They’ll all be yelling “USA! USA! USA!” because they think America can beat every other country on Earth even if they all join together. They’ll be too dumb to understand the situation they were dumb enough to get us into. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2019, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/137 "2019-05-20T11:03:04Z")
There’s probably not a single action that Trump could do that would substantially weaken the United States. What’s clear, however, is that in multiple ways he is isolating the United States from other countries in our trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific alliances. Going nationalist plays into the hands of countries like China and Russia. By isolating ourselves, we weaken our power to have other countries follow our lead on things like the Magnitsky Act, international trade, and climate agreements. We weaken military alliances; after all, if we become more nationalist and insisting that we act in our own interests, then other countries inevitably do the same. The US military is powerful, but not nearly as powerful if it can’t use foreign air space, foreign air force bases, foreign ports of call. With regard to China, a unilateral China hurts China now and in the next 12-36 months maybe, but over time, it will hurt us far more. We cannot stop China from becoming the world’s largest economy and eventually the world’s most powerful nation. They’ve mapped out an economic strategy to make that happen, and there’s probably not much that can be done to prevent their ascent. What would be a better approach is for us to try to make China less authoritarian, less corrupt and more open. Nobody’s naive: they’ll never be a Western democratic society, but they can be better than they are now. What should concern us is that by taking them on one-on-one we lose the collective power that Western (and even Eastern) democracies and open societies have to be an influence for good. We might even desire to build a League of Democratic Nations as a kind of 21st Century global version of NATO, not necessarily with missile batteries aimed at China and Russia but as a strong, robust political commonwealth that works together to influence countries for the better, using economic and political pressure if/when necessary - that kind of thing. Unfortunately, Trump is trying a strategy that has led to two world wars and failed miserably for the countries that have tried the nationalist approach. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2019, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/138 "2019-05-20T14:36:19Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Remember what happened in World War II? Yeah, but that’s just _history!_ Who the hell pays attention to history? Next you’ll be dredging up Smoot-Hawley or something! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2019, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/139 "2019-05-20T14:41:50Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > As long as this administration does nothing provocative with regard to our delicate relationship with Iran, the ball is totally in Iran’s court! Relax, we’re in… good… hands. :eek: #Allstate2020 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2019, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/140 "2019-05-20T15:18:57Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I never in a million years thought I’d say anything remotely positive about the bow-tied fuck stick, but he just might be the one to put an end to this madness – at least with regard to Iran. > > [Tucker Carlson: How Is A War With Iran In America's Interest In Any Way? | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/05/15/tucker_carlson_how_is_a_war_with_iran_in_americas_interest_in_any_way.html) > > Remember, folks, whatever someone on FNC says \> than whatever any of Trump’s aides say, even if some of his aides used to be guests on FNC. Trump lives in TV Land. Edited: Sorry, thought you were referring to another fuckstick. There are a lot of them in the admin. Anyway, Dotard, the Firstest of All Individuals, thinks you and Carlson are wrong: > ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2019, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905/141 "2019-05-20T23:40:23Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Edited: Sorry, thought you were referring to another fuckstick. There are a lot of them in the admin. > > Anyway, Dotard, the Firstest of All Individuals, thinks you and Carlson are wrong: > > [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1130207891049332737](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1130207891049332737) Don’t feel bad, JohnT. I’m also having trouble juggling all the fucking fuck sticks in my mind. Just too many to handle. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-about-to-go-into-a-foreign-policy-death-spiral/833905.md?page=8)