# Trump's collapse and Cruz's inevitability **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 6, 2016, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089 "2016-03-06T03:22:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/41 "2016-03-08T10:36:02Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I think you’re right. I think Trump would be easier to beat, but at the same time, I think a President Trump is so dangerous that I’m willing to take a chance on having the slightly higher chance of a President Cruz than having the only thing standing between Donald Trump and nuclear weapons being Hillary Clinton. I disagree. My guess is that Trump’s most salient characteristic as president would be incompetence, whereas Cruz would be actively and calculatingly malicious. The biggest risk with Trump might be his personal insecurities, but Cruz is just a relentless uncompromising extremist. Trump is a greedy self-serving SOB who wouldn’t know how to govern, Cruz is the personification of evil. > [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > Cruz is the USA’s version of an Iranian Shiite Imam living by his own version of Sharia Law. He’s an absolutist. Unwilling to compromise. Historically, at least, American voters have instinctually shied away from such guys. > > Some sort of coalition might be able to block Trump before the convention, but the nominee won’t be Cruz. His support will wane to near nothing after a vote or two in Cleveland. Paul Ryan, Kasich, even Rubio might get it at a brokered convention, but not Cruz. I sure hope you’re right, but only a brokered convention will be able to accomplish that, which is far from guaranteed. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/42 "2016-03-16T16:47:44Z")
Checking in ten days later: > [@](#): > > Trump will probably win about 9 of those 11; Cruz will take Idaho, probably Kansas, maybe Maine.\* Kasich could steal Michigan, but more likely will finish a strong second, enough to justify going on. Rubio will finish a solid 2nd in several states, and thus will also stay in. Spot-on, except Kasich finished basically tied with Cruz in Michigan, so a strong third, not second, and Rubio fading even faster than expected. > [@](#): > > March 15 will be Peak Trump: … Kasich will win Ohio. Trump will win Illinois, and either Trump or Cruz will win Missouri. Florida will be the decisive race, and one of three things will happen: > > 1. If Trump were to win Florida – which is likely – the delegate count on 3/16, assuming Trump wins Florida and Missouri, will be something like > > Trump 720 > Cruz 360 > Rubio 185 > Kasich 125 Actual count as of 3/16, with about 65 delegates still waiting to be awarded (mostly all to Trump): Trump 646 Cruz 397 Rubio 169 Kasich 142 Rubio has already dropped out as predicted. Kasich will be largely irrelevant going forward, and I suspect he will suspend after Wisconsin on 4/5. Especially after the Missouri result, he will be under pressure to get out. Next week is Arizona and Utah. Utah is an obvious Cruz win, but Arizona will be a contest. 538 projects Trump as 84% likely to win; I say they are wrong, and Cruz will take it with something like a 45/40/15 split. That starts a winning streak that sees Cruz taking North Dakota, Colorado, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Trump will hold New York, and rebound with wins in the 4/26 regional, but Cruz will win out down the stretch, taking everything except West Virginia and New Jersey. My earlier prediction was: > [@](#): > > … they will go to a brokered convention roughly tied at around 950 delegates of the ~1200 needed. I will make it more exact: The delegate count at the end of the primaries will be something like Trump 1080 Cruz 1020 Kasich 150 Rubio/other suspended 175 Misc unbound 75 Trump will obviously argue that he should get the nomination with a plurality of the delegates; but by the time July rolls around, Cruz will have the momentum, and will be ahead in national polls. Note also that 1. There are something like 50-75 completely unbound delegates 2. In roughly half the states, delegates representing candidates who suspend become unbound and can support anyone they like, even on the first ballot (e.g., Rubio’s 17 from Minnesota are now free agents). These people – GOP party veterans – are very unlikely to go for Trump, and they will have a full month from the end of the primaries to think it over/be pressured/get bribed. And in fact, the media will be seeking out these people and asking them, and those answers will start being incorporated into delegate counts, and that will feed into Cruz’ momentum. Delegates who are bound by law on the first ballot to Rubio/Carson/ etc., will publically state who they will be going for on the second ballot, and the vast majority of them will also be for Cruz. Thus, I expect the actual first-ballot vote to go something like Trump 1100 Cruz 1200 Etc 175 After that, Cruz on the second ballot will be inevitable. One caveat would be that more disruptions along the lines of Chicago might help Trump. If Black Lives Matter storms the stage and he slugs one of them, he will be proclaimed God-Emperor by acclimation. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/43 "2016-03-16T16:57:36Z")
He’ll adapt. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/44 "2016-03-16T17:24:27Z")
> [@furt](#): > > … > Next week is Arizona and Utah. Utah is an obvious Cruz win, but Arizona will be a contest. 538 projects Trump as 84% likely to win; I say they are wrong, and Cruz will take it with something like a 45/40/15 split. > … How do you figure AZ goes for Cruz? It’s classic Make America Great territory with very weak evangelical support. After you get past the Country Club retirees from Chicago & surrounds, it’s basically one big white trash trailer park. Or at least it was when I lived & visited family there. Yes, there is a large Latin contingent in the population. But they’re not much in evidence in the R primary electorate. I don’t put too much stock in the idea that they (even the Ds swapping parties) will all show up to vote against Trump in the R primary. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/45 "2016-03-16T17:26:29Z")
> [@furt](#): > > I will make it more exact: > > The delegate count at the end of the primaries will be something like > Trump 1080 > Cruz 1020 > Kasich 150 > Rubio/other suspended 175 > Misc unbound 75 If the delegate count is like what you suggest here and Cruz wins the nomination, then I think the GOP will have a very bad night in November. Trump in all likelihood would run as an independent Its not as if he was getting any backing from the party, or has any political ambitions in the future, and playing spoiler against them would be just the sort of payback for insult that he is known for. Even if he doesn’t, the 1/3 of the anti-establishment party that Trump represents isn’t likely to come back into the fold after the party makes it clear it will ignore them in favor of someone who got fewer votes than their candidate. The Republicans are really in a damned if you do and damned if you don’t situation. No matter who they choose a substantial portion of their party will feel betrayed and either stay home or vote for some third party/independent. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/46 "2016-03-16T17:34:06Z")
Camp Cruz was downplaying Arizona last night saying that it would be [hard for them to win it](https://twitter.com/TheFix/status/710147180569489408). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/47 "2016-03-16T17:34:41Z")
Let’s be real here. Cruz’s path to the nomination is “Follow the Yellow Brick Road down the rabbit hole to the second star on the right”. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/48 "2016-03-16T17:53:00Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > How do you figure AZ goes for Cruz? > > It’s classic Make America Great territory with very weak evangelical support. After you get past the Country Club retirees from Chicago & surrounds, it’s basically one big white trash trailer park. Or at least it was when I lived & visited family there. Could be. Polls there currently have Trump at ~35%, Cruz at ~20%, and Kasich at ~12%. That leaves ~33% up for grabs, and I say those people break very heavily for Cruz. That will not be easy, as it’s only a week away, you have a lot of people who have already voted, but I think there’s a \>51% chance he squeezes it out. I think the media makes too much of Cruz as the “evangelical guy.” He is, but he’s also the “strict constitutionalist” guy. More importantly, at this point he’s the “not Trump” guy. > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > If the delegate count is like what you suggest here and Cruz wins the nomination, then I think the GOP will have a very bad night in November. Trump in all likelihood would run as an independent Its not as if he was getting any backing from the party, or has any political ambitions in the future, and playing spoiler against them would be just the sort of payback for insult that he is known for. Even if he doesn’t, the 1/3 of the anti-establishment party that Trump represents isn’t likely to come back into the fold after the party makes it clear it will ignore them in favor of someone who got fewer votes than their candidate. Trump will not run as an independent. It would require a boatload of his own money, and he would lose. He’s not really running to advance some kind of agenda or issue, so his only motive would indeed be spite. He can and will be plenty destructive to the GOP just by holding protest rallies and sending tweets, etc., There’s really no juice for him in spending months more campaigning just so he can get 25% in the general. The disaffection of his supporters, OTOH, will indeed be a real challenge for Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/49 "2016-03-16T18:31:28Z")
> [@furt](#): > > his only motive would indeed be spite You say that as if you think it’s not the wellspring of his personality. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/50 "2016-03-16T18:47:54Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > You say that as if you think it’s not the wellspring of his personality. He attacks others for his own benefit, not for its own sake. That’s greed, not spite. ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/51 "2016-03-16T19:13:09Z")
> [@furt](#): > > He attacks others for his own benefit, not for its own sake. That’s greed, not spite. Well, it does keep his “brand”, about the only thing keeping him afloat, front and center for a good while longer. The only question would be does the return justify the cost. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/52 "2016-03-16T19:46:23Z")
> [@duality72](#): > > Well, it does keep his “brand”, about the only thing keeping him afloat, front and center for a good while longer. His whole shtick is that he is a “winner.” How does polling at 25% help his brand? Much better to sit it out and swear he would have won if the game wasn’t rigged. ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/53 "2016-03-16T19:58:51Z")
> [@furt](#): > > His whole shtick is that he is a “winner.” How does polling at 25% help his brand? Much better to sit it out and swear he would have won if the game wasn’t rigged. He’s going to claim the game is rigged regardless, even if he somehow makes the long shot and wins. It will just show what a mega-winner he is by winning a rigged contest! Anyway, while his chances are looking as good as they ever have, he had to have started this race knowing that winning was unlikely, but he could get a shit ton of publicity out of it. That’s probably even more true now. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/54 "2016-03-16T20:13:17Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Could be. Polls there currently have Trump at ~35%, Cruz at ~20%, and Kasich at ~12%. That leaves ~33% up for grabs, and I say those people break very heavily for Cruz. From what I was hearing of exit polls yesterday, Trump was beating most everybody with late deciders - except maybe in Ohio where they went Kasich. I don’t get it either, but it’s happening. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/55 "2016-03-16T21:34:15Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Could be. Polls there currently have Trump at ~35%, Cruz at ~20%, and Kasich at ~12%. That leaves ~33% up for grabs, and I say those people break very heavily for Cruz. That will not be easy, as it’s only a week away, you have a lot of people who have already voted, but I think there’s a \>51% chance he squeezes it out. Cruz would have to get about 25% of that 33% (over 3/4 of it) to squeeze it out, ignoring Kasich for the moment. Has that landslide of late voters ever happened? I predict that since Kasich won Ohio, and the person he was competing with for votes has dropped out, he will stay in the race with the hopes that a deadlocked convention would turn to him as being more electable than Cruz while still an actual candidate. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/56 "2016-03-16T21:36:56Z")
> [@duality72](#): > > Anyway, while his chances are looking as good as they ever have, he had to have started this race knowing that winning was unlikely, but he could get a shit ton of publicity out of it. Fair point. > [@GrandWino](#): > > From what I was hearing of exit polls yesterday, Trump was beating most everybody with late deciders - except maybe in Ohio where they went Kasich. I don’t get it either, but it’s happening. Nope, only in Florida, with Rubio splitting the not-Trump vote. In Missouri, “last few days” deciders went 55% Cruz, 22% Trump. In North Carolina, 45% Cruz, 30% Trump. In Illinois, 37% Cruz, 29% Trump, 26% Kasich. That’s been a pattern all along. > **[2016 Election Center](https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls)** > > View election results from the 2016 presidential primaries and caucuses and explore delegate counts and votes by state. Keep forgetting to mention: One of the other issues in play here is a current GOP rule that says a nominee must have won at least 8 states: obviously that means only Trump and Cruz. That rule can be changed right before the convention, but it would truly make the party look terrible, and piss off even more of the voters. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/57 "2016-03-16T21:39:05Z")
The next primaries are in low-population Western states - more Cruz territory. Meanwhile, Kasich will have won only his home state, and only after a lot of work. Cruz is the clear Number Two and will get clearer next week. Really, where else does Kasich have a real shot? Not that it matters anymore, of course. This is the mop-up stage of the battle Trump has already won. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/58 "2016-03-16T21:42:32Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The next primaries are in low-population Western states - more Cruz territory. Meanwhile, Kasich will have won only his home state, and only after a lot of work. **Cruz is the clear Number Two** and will get clearer next week. Really, where else does Kasich have a real shot? > > Not that it matters anymore, of course. This is the mop-up stage of the battle Trump has already won. You can say that again. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/59 "2016-03-16T22:23:27Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Keep forgetting to mention: One of the other issues in play here is a current GOP rule that says a nominee must have won at least 8 states: obviously that means only Trump and Cruz. That rule can be changed right before the convention, but it would truly make the party look terrible, and piss off even more of the voters. I’ve heard that waved away by GOP officials as a temporary rule, intended to apply to that year’s convention and subject to change or dismissal when they set the rules for this year. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/60 "2016-03-16T23:07:07Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I’ve heard that waved away by GOP officials as a temporary rule, intended to apply to that year’s convention and subject to change or dismissal when they set the rules for this year. … > [@](#): > > That rule can be changed right before the convention, but it would truly make the party look terrible, and piss off even more of the voters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089.md?page=4)