# Trump's collapse and Cruz's inevitability **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 6, 2016, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089 "2016-03-06T03:22:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/61 "2016-03-16T23:09:06Z")
> [@furt](#): > > His whole shtick is that he is a “winner.” How does polling at 25% help his brand? Much better to sit it out and swear he would have won if the game wasn’t rigged. Except that there are too many reasonable voters in the country to EVER allow that to happen. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/62 "2016-03-16T23:37:35Z")
> [@furt](#): > > … > I think the media makes too much of Cruz as the “evangelical guy.” He is, but he’s also the “strict constitutionalist” guy. More importantly, at this point he’s the “not Trump” guy. > … This is an excellent point. I tend to think of Cruz as the Evangelist & little more. That’s an error on my part. Not that those other attributes make him any more acceptable to me as a President, but they are attractive to some folks. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/63 "2016-03-17T02:04:59Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I’ve heard that waved away by GOP officials as a temporary rule, intended to apply to that year’s convention and subject to change or dismissal when they set the rules for this year. It probably will come down to how the idea of a Trump plurality being reversed by faithless delegates polls a few weeks before the convention. My guess is that it will poll too badly for them to do it. Just a guess, partly based on the KMT in Taiwan having reversed an unpopular primary result a few months back, replacing a candidate, described as their Palin, with a moderate. It did not work on election day, big time, losing then the legislature as well as the presidency. And the primary system in new-democracy Taiwan, (conducted by public opinion polls!), is much less baked-in than in the US. There’s a reason that both US parties always try to make the convention a coronation. Having a candidate that lacks legitimacy doesn’t work. The GOP establishment might not read history, but I think they do read polls. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/64 "2016-03-17T02:27:40Z")
The question is, how much does pissing off the voters matter to them at this point? Which scenario do they think is worse? One option I’ve seen floated by is letting Trump run, but fielding a third party candidate of their own, who can skim off the Republicans who would otherwise vote for the nominee. That way, Trump fails naturally, and they can salvage the party. And President Clinton isn’t really any worse than President Trump from their perspective: neither one is beholden to conservative values or can be controlled by the party. I for one very much fear what would happen in a Trump presidency (to the point that I almost had a panic attack one night when it hit me how big a chance this could happen) so I hope this is correct. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/65 "2016-03-17T03:45:56Z")
> [@furt](#): > > That rule can be changed right before the convention, but it would truly make the party look terrible, and piss off even more of the voters. Yes, the point is that they don’t think it WILL make them look bad because the process is always to set the rules for that convention. They’re not changing some long-standing tradition, they’re deciding whether to keep or discard a “temporary” rule just enacted one convention ago. I couldn’t tell you how many people would actually care (I’m guessing a very vocal minority) but the GOP stance is that there’s nothing “terrible” about conducting business as usual when setting the rules. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/66 "2016-03-17T03:49:49Z")
Is Ted Cruz actually the lead singer of Stryper? Michael Sweet denies this. > **[Is Ted Cruz secretly the frontman of Christian metal band Stryper?](https://www.dailydot.com/unclick/ted-cruz-michael-sweet-stryper/?fb=dd)** > > Have you ever seen them together? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/67 "2016-03-17T04:00:24Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > Is Ted Cruz actually the lead singer of Stryper? Michael Sweet denies this. > > [http://www.dailydot.com/lol/ted-cruz-michael-sweet-stryper/?fb=dd](http://www.dailydot.com/lol/ted-cruz-michael-sweet-stryper/?fb=dd) > > 😛 lol I got a solid chuckle out of that…especially since the Stryper fans are taking it so seriously. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/68 "2016-03-17T07:57:22Z")
He has almost all the qualities of a rattlesnake but lacks the charm. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/69 "2016-03-17T08:46:35Z")
> [@furt](#): > > I think the media makes too much of Cruz as the “evangelical guy.” He is, but he’s also the “strict constitutionalist” guy. [He’s a dominionist](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/religion/ted-cruzs-campaign-is-fueled-by-a-dominionist-vision-for-america-commentary/2016/02/04/86373158-cb6a-11e5-b9ab-26591104bb19_story.html). In his mind, those are the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/70 "2016-03-17T12:01:03Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > He has almost all the qualities of a rattlesnake but lacks the charm. After several strikes, rattlesnakes run out of venom. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/71 "2016-03-17T13:13:11Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > The question is, how much does pissing off the voters matter to them at this point? Which scenario do they think is worse? > > One option I’ve seen floated by is letting Trump run, but fielding a third party candidate of their own, who can skim off the Republicans who would otherwise vote for the nominee. That way, Trump fails naturally, and they can salvage the party. And President Clinton isn’t really any worse than President Trump from their perspective: neither one is beholden to conservative values or can be controlled by the party. > … The GOP Establishment running, say, Romney, as a third party candidate amounts to the same thing as them hijacking the convention to select the same, say, Romney as the R candidate. In either case they engage in historically unprecedented\* shenanigans to deny the Peoples Choice (i.e. Trump) a fair run at the Presidency. Either way the Establishment tries it, there’s going to be lots of Trump fans bitterly angry at being cheated yet again. My bottom line: IMO the Establishment Rs really don’t have any safe way to defuse this bomb. Assuming Trump has a plurality of pledged delegates the day before the convention, the best they can hope for is to duly nominate Trump with minimum fanfare, phone in their support in the general election, and focus on the down-ticket races. # Then hope like heck that HRC pulls off a win. Aided of course by a bunch of shiny new PACs with totally opaque (but very generous) funding that spring up to extol Clinton & excoriate Trump. - At least unprecedented in recent history. Nobody but historians much cares about skullduggery that may have happened before about 1970. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/72 "2016-03-17T13:37:11Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > My bottom line: IMO the Establishment Rs really don’t have any safe way to defuse this bomb. Assuming Trump has a plurality of pledged delegates the day before the convention, the best they can hope for is to duly nominate Trump with minimum fanfare, phone in their support in the general election, and focus on the down-ticket races. > > Then hope like heck that HRC pulls off a win. Aided of course by a bunch of shiny new PACs with totally opaque (but very generous) funding that spring up to extol Clinton & excoriate Trump. This is what I would predict. If Trump runs, and loses to Clinton, then a lot of Republicans could be riled up to vote in 2018. And they’ve probably already started on finding a suitable candidate for 2020 in hopes things go better then. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/73 "2016-03-17T13:47:44Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > a lot of Republicans could be riled up to vote in 2018. Even more so? Hard to imagine. > [@](#): > > And they’ve probably already started on finding a suitable candidate for 2020 in hopes things go better then. If they had one, he’d have run \*this \*time. Oh, wait, maybe he did, but he got nowhere. ---
**Author:** ![CGav8r](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/34f0e0/32.png) [@CGav8r](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CGav8r)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/74 "2016-03-17T13:54:44Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > [He’s a dominionist](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/religion/ted-cruzs-campaign-is-fueled-by-a-dominionist-vision-for-america-commentary/2016/02/04/86373158-cb6a-11e5-b9ab-26591104bb19_story.html). In his mind, those are the same thing. That was a fascinating article. I wonder if Obama’s father had proclaimed that his winning a Senate seat was a fulfillment of end of times prophecy and that Obama was one of the “kings” foretold in scripture, whether we would see the right wing go ape-$hit crazy. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/75 "2016-03-17T14:51:04Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > [He’s a dominionist](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/religion/ted-cruzs-campaign-is-fueled-by-a-dominionist-vision-for-america-commentary/2016/02/04/86373158-cb6a-11e5-b9ab-26591104bb19_story.html). In his mind, those are the same thing. Then you’re very ignorant, on the level of someone who says “conservative Muslim” and “suicide bomber” are the same thing. 25% of all Americans are Evangelicals. In any given election, 20-30% of Evangelicals vote for the Democrat. The idea of “Evangelical” as some kind of terrifying other is left-wing fever-swamp stuff. _Dominionism_ is a extreme view within Evangelicalism, held by a small minority. Much like “Muslims who want to impose Sharia law,” it’s one of those deals where you find way more people terrified about the group and swearing the group numbers in the millions than you find people actually saying “yeah, I’m part of that group.” The evidence that Cruz is, himself, a dominionist – as opposed to “he knows Dominionists, he shares some ideas with Dominionists, he is supported by dominionists” – is, IMO, scanty. The same “he shares ideas, he is supported by, etc.” logic could just as well be be applied to Bernie Sanders and Communists, and it would be crap there, too. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/76 "2016-03-17T14:56:43Z")
> [@furt](#): > > ]I think the media makes too much of Cruz as the “evangelical guy.” He is, but he’s also the “strict constitutionalist” guy. Which is neither any better nor any more rational. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/77 "2016-03-17T16:21:36Z")
I don’t know. Playing around with the numbers on [RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html), there looks like a lot of paths for Trump to win. There are 597 delegates in states with winner takes all (with some of those by congressional district) and it really would take a large swing for many of these to break to Cruz. Trump needs 564 more delegates, mostly just splitting the number in half for most of the proportional states, with some tweeks, and giving him a greater number of delegates in many of the states with winner takes all by congressional district, even with 16 of the remaining 21 races, there is a path for him to win. State (delgates) (Trump delegates) (remaining needed) New York 95 60 504 Arizona 58 58 446 Pennsylvania 71 60 386 Maryland 38 30 356 California 172 150 206 New Jersey 51 51 155 West Virginia 34 20 135 Wisconsin 42 30 105 Oregon 28 14 91 New Mexico 24 12 79 Utah 40 15 64 Connecticut 28 14 50 Road Island 19 10 40 Washington 44 22 18 American Samoa 9 5 13 North Dakota 28 14 -1 This is ignoring the following winner take all states Delaware 16 Indiana 57 Montana 27 Nebraska 36 North Dakota 28 total 164 I’m not claiming any great insight into what can happen down the road, but it certainly looks like it’s not out of the realm of possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/78 "2016-03-17T18:24:00Z")
Lindsey Graham announced today that he is going to help Ted Cruz raise campaign money, in an effort to stop Trump. This is the same Lindsey Graham who famously said, "“If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you.” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/79 "2016-03-17T18:39:33Z")
Maybe we shouldn’t take Press Club dinner speeches quite so seriously? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/80 "2016-03-17T18:43:42Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > Lindsey Graham announced today that he is going to help Ted Cruz raise campaign money, in an effort to stop Trump. This is the same Lindsey Graham who famously said, "“If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you.” Does that mean Trump is actually even worse, or merely “Cruz may be an ass, but he’s _our_ ass”? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089.md?page=5)