# Trump's collapse and Cruz's inevitability **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 6, 2016, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089 "2016-03-06T03:22:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/161 "2016-05-03T13:39:39Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Maybe. But the arguments made in the OP were easy to criticize even then and hindsight shows us that such criticism was not exactly unwarranted. True. The fact that Cruz has progressed (or maybe regressed would be a better word) from “long shot” to “the guy in the red security shirt who told everybody he’s retiring next week and slipped away from the landing party with a cute yeoman” is just a detail. ---
**Author:** ![IvoryTowerDenizen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ivorytowerdenizen/32/17937_2.png) [@IvoryTowerDenizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IvoryTowerDenizen)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/162 "2016-05-03T14:48:27Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > That’s because “general wisdom” was dominated by normie shill neoliberals and inverse-Trotskyite neoconservatives who refused to look at what the polls plainly indicated which showed that outside of the moralistic Upper Midwestern/Plains/Mormonland states, TRUMP had an overwhelming advantage and instead indulged in their anti-democratic and elitist fantasies of Zorro-excuse me I mean Ted Cruz-riding in to save the day. I just graded some papers like this. It is sometimes referred to as “content-free writing”. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/163 "2016-05-03T14:59:34Z")
I don’t know, he was kind of asking for it with the “_normie shill neoliberals and inverse-Trotskyite neoconservatives_” phrase, but he was otherwise making a substantive comment. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/164 "2016-05-03T15:02:03Z")
> [@IvoryTowerDenizen](#): > > I just graded some papers like this. It is sometimes referred to as “content-free writing”. Something like this: [QUOTE=Isaac Asimov, “Foundation”] When Holk, after two days of steady work, succeeded in eliminating meaningless statements, vague gibberish, useless qualifications – in short, all the goo and dribble – he found he had nothing left. Everything cancelled out. Lord Dorwin, gentlemen, in five days of discussion _didn’t say one damned thing_, and said it so you never noticed. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/165 "2016-05-03T15:04:53Z")
[Calvin and Hobbes](http://www.pagepulp.com/291/calvin-and-hobbes-sums-up-the-academic-experience/) sums it up. ---
**Author:** ![IvoryTowerDenizen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ivorytowerdenizen/32/17937_2.png) [@IvoryTowerDenizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IvoryTowerDenizen)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/166 "2016-05-03T15:14:25Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t know, he was kind of asking for it with the “_normie shill neoliberals and inverse-Trotskyite neoconservatives_” phrase, but he was otherwise making a substantive comment. Perhaps. Shall we say “content-buried” writing? ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/167 "2016-05-03T15:31:18Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t know, he was kind of asking for it with the “_normie shill neoliberals and inverse-Trotskyite neoconservatives_” phrase, but he was otherwise making a substantive comment. A bit terse, however. Maybe you can help punch it up. ---
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/168 "2016-05-03T15:38:44Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t know, he was kind of asking for it with the “_normie shill neoliberals and inverse-Trotskyite neoconservatives_” phrase, but he was otherwise making a substantive comment. Given the social economic and political constraints of front loading delivery systems and skills stacking, this may be under-rated in the tyranny of the urgent paradox with regards to the Jacobite revolutionary tactics, vis-a-vis tRUMP and Qin’s comments. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/169 "2016-05-03T16:51:47Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > [Calvin and Hobbes](http://www.pagepulp.com/291/calvin-and-hobbes-sums-up-the-academic-experience/) sums it up. Academia here I come! - Calvin ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/170 "2016-05-03T19:02:01Z")
Though it looks like the OP was wrong, it was a reasonably argument at the time. A few weeks back the smart analysis, e.g. on 538, suggested that Trump would fall short of 1237 and it was also clear that Cruz was much better at getting friendly delegates elected who would back him in the second ballot and later. Trump has exceeded expectations with the size of his NE primary wins and strong polls in Indiana. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/171 "2016-05-03T19:53:23Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > The primary has never appeared “tight”. It’s been quite a while since anyone has thought that Trump would not win a healthy plurality of the pledged delegates. > > What has been in question is whether he could win a first-ballot majority, and despite your desire to appear too cool for school, up until very recently that has been “tight”. Cruz’ groundwork in having unpledged delegates selected who would support him in the first round, and having delegates selected who are pledged to someone else in the first round who would support him in later rounds, was really excellent. > > Now, following Trump’s smashing victories in the Northeast (which were expected, but not 60%), it’s not so close. Cruz and Kasich needed to hold Trump under 50%, and to take many more districts than they did. Many of the unpledged state delegates from Pennsylvania have said they’ll vote for Trump. It is only now that one can see the Republicans moving past denial, anger, bargaining, and depression into acceptance. > > To argue that Trump’s nomination was a foregone conclusion two months ago is simply ludicrous, no matter how much you try to put a party dress on it. As **John Stamos’ Left Ear** pointed out, saying TRUMP wouldn’t have a majority of delegates (which as much of a shocker as it may seem was something I believe was quite possible until recently) is quite different from saying that he’d collapse as a candidate when I think it’s been obvious since at least South Carolina, that the Donald would be the leading candidate. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/172 "2016-05-04T00:38:52Z")
Bahahahah ---
**Author:** ![oft\_wears\_hats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7993a0/32.png) [@oft\_wears\_hats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/oft_wears_hats)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/173 "2016-05-04T01:05:00Z")
[This is just the break the Cruz campaign needs!](http://www.npr.org/2016/05/03/476653783/ted-cruz-drops-out-of-presidential-race) ---
**Author:** ![Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e99b99/32.png) [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Einstein_was_a_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/174 "2016-05-04T01:10:56Z")
> [@furt](#): > > We aren’t yet at peak Trump, but the collapse is predictable, and so I will predict it. bwahahahaaaaaaa… RNC Chair just tweeted that Trump will be the nominee, they will unite, and did a #neverclinton ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/175 "2016-05-04T01:36:08Z")
Okay, _ **now** _ the premise of this thread looks _really_ dumb. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/176 "2016-05-04T08:52:10Z")
> [@Fenris](#): > > Given the social economic and political constraints of front loading delivery systems and skills stacking, this may be under-rated in the tyranny of the urgent paradox with regards to the Jacobite revolutionary tactics, vis-a-vis tRUMP and Qin’s comments. Yes, but what about the shoes, and getting delivery people up to Sector R? I mean, I know you’re a flying Sausserian, but surely you can see that top-down paradigms, looked at from the bottom-up, have have a massive fundament with only one aperture, which serves to feed endless speculation vis-a-vis knowledge retrieval and policy penetration. Trump’s William Rubin tendencies have allowed him to stand a head above the rest, but his distinctive coloration bespeaks a history in a much subaltern position relative to his own production; he is, in fact, a product of his own movements, and will therefore soon disappear as the handles of American ingenuity are pushed by people weary of the uttermost end. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/177 "2016-05-04T14:47:42Z")
A commodious solution. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/178 "2016-05-04T15:14:37Z")
> [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](#): > > bwahahahaaaaaaa… > > RNC Chair just tweeted that Trump will be the nominee, they will unite, and did a #neverclinton Hey! Hey, down here! It’s me, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio. Remember me? Does anyone remember me? Hello? Hello? I’m still running for President. Is this thing still on? Bueller? ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/179 "2016-05-04T15:35:11Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Hey! Hey, down here! It’s me, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio. Remember me? Does anyone remember me? Hello? Hello? I’m still running for President. Is this thing still on? Bueller? Sorry. Even **adaher** has moved on to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2016, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089/180 "2016-05-05T05:26:43Z")
So, where did I go wrong? The OP was written in early March, and was pretty much correct in its predictions through mid-April. Actually, the prediction were more or less spot-on right up until yesterday, in terms of winning states; I anticipated Cruz would be gaining support between 4/5 and 4/26 with wins in Colorado and Wyoming, which would enable him to at least put up a respectable showing in the the mid-Atlantic. Instead, the size of Trump’s margins in those states indicates that Trump gained a lot of momentum during the three weeks. So what happened? 1. Kasich remained a factor. I anticipated him continuing to fade into Gilmore-type-irrelevancy, as people saw him as a non-viable candidate. He did not fade, and in fact gained support as he gained the support of people wanting a moderate. The problem was not so much splitting the anti-Trump vote per se, but in the framing of the race in people’s minds. Which led to… 2. The party leadership not coalescing around Cruz. Cruz was never going to get a ton of endorsements anyway, and having Kasich around (as well as the specter of a contested convention) meant that it never really came down to a one-versus-the-other campaign in which people felt they really did need to choose between two candidates. 3. Above all, Trump’s mastery of the media. I don’t get TV, and so I’ve only heard what happens on there secondhand; this was a blind spot for me. In the last few weeks I’ve been travelling and I’ve it’s been eye opening to see Trump just steamroll interviewers and dominate the conversation. All politicians BS and try to reframe questions, but Trump is so utterly shameless and brazen that he flummoxes most TV reporters. I haven’t seen any print interviews of him… I suspect that’s intentional. Included in this mastery is his pretty clearly being the preference of several Fox types. FWIW, the backdrop of the OP was my reading Scott Adams’ blog posts about Trump’s persuasion techniques, and my desire for him to be wrong – not just in his prediction per se (Adams said last August that Trump would win the general) but in his explanation of why it was working. I want to think that people – at least the relatively higher-intelligence/education ones that vote in primary elections – are at least mostly rational; I’m increasingly skeptical of that. I’m not especially a fan of Cruz or his politics, but he’s clearly the guy favoring things that the kind of people that vote in GOP primaries favor. It’s telling to me that so many would vote for someone like Donald Trump based on, almost nothing but emotional and identity appeals. Many Progressives, obviously, think that Trump’s approach won’t work in the general. We’ll see. Unfortunately, I think she’ll fight him based on emotional and identity appeals of her own; she’ll likely have to. I fear we are heading for some ugly times ahead. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-collapse-and-cruzs-inevitability/748089.md?page=10)