# Trump's effect on upcoming Senate and House races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 7, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199 "2016-05-07T18:28:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/21 "2016-08-05T13:50:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Third parties historically do a little worse on election day. That’s like saying the _Titanic_ ran into “a little” ice. A few recent historical examples: [Gary Johnson 2012](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Johnson_presidential_campaign,_2012): July poll 5.3%, actual vote 0.99% [Jill Stein 2012](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jill_Stein_presidential_campaign,_2012): September poll 2%, actual vote 0.36% [Bob Barr 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Barr#2008_presidential_campaign): July poll 6%, actual vote 0.40% Admittedly, this is an unusual year, and Johnson may do better than expected by getting votes from Republicans who know that Trump is incompetent but can’t bring themselves to vote for Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/22 "2016-08-05T13:54:18Z")
I started a thread predicting that Trump’s candidacy would be catastrophic for the Republicans in both the House and Senate. They will lose both. I’m sticking by my prediction. I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up, other than the behavior of Donald Trump and the Republican congressional leadership seeming to avoid him like the plague but still not able to bring themselves do withdraw their personal endorsements of him. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/23 "2016-08-05T14:05:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s what the polls say. ARe they skewed? Maybe. Third parties historically do a little worse on election day. Nate Silver projects Johnson at 5% in his polls plus model. As noted, the third party numbers will very likely go down on election day. And of course, there’s no “none of the above” or “undecided” on the actual election ballot. You’ll note that the RCP average numbers don’t add up to 100%, so Hillary is really averaging 43.9/92.3 which is pretty close to the 48% you said she needs. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/24 "2016-08-05T14:22:12Z")
If [this poll](https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/761552863852056576) is accurate and holds up to November, the Democrats have got the House. Even with gerrymandering and inefficiently distributed urban Democrats, the Republicans cannot hold their majority with an eight point loss nationally. Probably anything more than a three point loss will knock Paul Ryan out of his job. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/25 "2016-08-05T15:01:52Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > If [this poll](https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/761552863852056576) is accurate and holds up to November, the Democrats have got the House. Even with gerrymandering and inefficiently distributed urban Democrats, the Republicans cannot hold their majority with an eight point loss nationally. Probably anything more than a three point loss will knock Paul Ryan out of his job. Problem is that no generic candidate is up for election in a generic district. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/26 "2016-08-05T15:13:06Z")
On the subject of gerrymandering, here is an [excellent post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19529491&postcount=360) by **Pleonast**. [QUOTE=Pleonast] Gerrymandering works by giving the controlling party slim majorities in many districts and concentrating opposition voters in a few districts. So if everyone votes the way they have in the past, the controlling party gets a disproportionate number of seats. But, if those slim majorities slip away, you get a tidal wave going the other direction. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/27 "2016-08-05T15:28:24Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Problem is that no generic candidate is up for election in a generic district. This isn’t much of an objection. You may as well complain that nobody has polled you. The generic ballot has a strong correlation with the number of seats won or lost by either party, [as Sam Wang has shown.](http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/30/house-outlook-2012-take-1/) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/28 "2016-08-05T15:33:25Z")
Oops. N/m ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/29 "2016-08-05T15:40:45Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > On the subject of gerrymandering, here is an [excellent post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19529491&postcount=360) by **Pleonast**. But Republican House candidates _don’t_ win by slim margins in most cases. Per [538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-house-majority-is-safe-right/): > [@](#): > > Amazingly, just 16 of 247 House Republicans won their races by fewer than 10 percentage points. Another cautionary note in that article suggests that the eight point lead in the generic ballot may actually just mean control of the House is a coin flip right now: > [@](#): > > If Democrats’ seat share continues to lag their national vote share by about 4 percentage points in 2016, the party might need to win about 8 percent more votes than Republicans nationally just to reach the barest possible majority of 218 seats. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/30 "2016-08-05T16:57:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > . SImple math: if 57% of voters vote for the right-wing candidates(Trump and Johnson), then that is no help to Democrats downballot. Actually, I’m being kind. If Trump and Johnson combine for even 52%, it’s probably a disaster for Democrats downballot. Johnson is not “right wing”. He’s all over the place. And, Johnson wont change the Senate races. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/31 "2016-08-05T17:00:19Z")
What with gerrymandering, I just cant see the GOP losing the House. Hopefully, the GOP will lose just enough seats so that a few Republicans can be talking into crossing the aisle on important votes. My call for a very close Senate, like 51/49 GOP still stands. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/32 "2016-08-05T18:08:27Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > This isn’t much of an objection. You may as well complain that nobody has polled you. The generic ballot has a strong correlation with the number of seats won or lost by either party, [as Sam Wang has shown.](http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/30/house-outlook-2012-take-1/) The post in which he stated that 2012 would see the House be very close to a tie and maybe go D? > [@](#): > > Considering the possibility of movement in opinion between now and November and the fact that seat outcomes don’t precisely reflect popular vote, the total 1-sigma uncertainty is about +/-4%. This leads to a prediction of R+2% to D+6% (68% CI). This corresponds to anywhere from a 12-vote Republican majority to a 36-seat Democratic majority. The probability of retained Republican control is 31%, a knife edge situation. > > All of the analysis above comes from data taken before the addition of Paul Ryan to the national ticket. Since then, the two most recent polls show the Democratic lead expanding to 4-8% Actual result? R majority of 33 I think? I loves me my Wang but not one of his best data crunches. Clearly 2012 and 2014 falsified his hypothesis. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/33 "2016-08-05T18:30:21Z")
Right now the GOP is still looking likely to hold the Senate, they’re only looking _likely_ to lose in New Hampshire, Illinois and Wisconsin, which is just +3. But they’re also looking to lose Harry Reid’s seat (he isn’t running again, and the Republican running against his Democratic successor is currently up in the polls.) All the other “vulnerable Republicans” are actually ahead of their challengers in the polls, at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/34 "2016-08-05T20:30:09Z")
FWIW (and again, on House predictions he has not been so great) [Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/house-polling-margin/) is stating that current generic polling places it as a Democratic House. He seems to ignore the particularly poor correlation of generic polling with actual results in 2014. **Martin Hyde** , last poll had McGinty up with the rolling average tied. Bayh is too soon for polls but is expected to lead. So “all the other …” is factually untrue. Truth be told polling is thin enough that anything within 5 either way, especially with polls taken before this last week, should be considered way too close to call right now. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/35 "2016-08-05T20:38:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Truth be told polling is thin enough that anything within 5 either way, especially with polls taken before this last week, should be considered way too close to call right now. My opinion is that no Senate polls are worth the ink right now. It’s just too far out, and the voters that are not political junkies who are starting to get interested are more focused on the Presidential race at the moment. Also, some states don’t have set candidates yet. For instance, both parties have contested primaries in Florida that won’t occur until August 30th. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/36 "2016-08-05T20:41:10Z")
The data I looked at for my post (which was up to 8/3), PA was still +2 GOP. Indiana wasn’t listed presumably because polling isn’t available yet. I do think the GOP have a good shot of losing the Senate, there’s also frequently an effect “over time” of congressional races moving towards the Presidential results in their states. Particularly in recent elections which see smaller numbers of ticket splitters than in years past. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/37 "2016-08-05T21:21:20Z")
[This guy just won the Republican nomination for governor in Missouri.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf2Gai1uQYM) And given that incumbent Senator Roy Blunt got more votes in his primary than all the Democratic senatorial candidates combined, I don’t expect the Democrats to push the state back into the blue column this time around. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/38 "2016-08-05T22:10:43Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > FWIW (and again, on House predictions he has not been so great) [Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/house-polling-margin/) is stating that current generic polling places it as a Democratic House. He seems to ignore the particularly poor correlation of generic polling with actual results in 2014. Generic polls, and even state-wide ones, have become less accurate as the House Districts have been increasingly gerrymandered. (And with cell phones, actual polling locations are harder to determine. States that go blue overall have been districted so that more Republicans get elected to the House. District level polls would give a more accurate result, but those are either not done, due to the high cost, or are kept very confidential by the candidate who pays for them. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/39 "2016-08-05T22:33:33Z")
I’ll say Susan Collins realizes her truer home, and her political future, are in the Dem caucus, and she’ll join her colleague Angus King as an Independent. That, and Kaine casting the tiebreaking vote when needed, would mean the Dems would only need to pick up 4 seats. I think they will. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199/40 "2016-08-06T01:26:57Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > [This guy just won the Republican nomination for governor in Missouri.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf2Gai1uQYM) > > And given that incumbent Senator Roy Blunt got more votes in his primary than all the Democratic senatorial candidates combined, I don’t expect the Democrats to push the state back into the blue column this time around. I am a long time Democratic activist in Missouri (Claire McCaskill was in my home at right around the time, and possibly at the exact moment, that Todd Akin was recording his legitimate rape fiasco interview), and the people I know feel pretty bullish about our Senate and gubernatorial candidates. Not that we are necessarily cruising to victory, but we have a better chance than in many other elections over the past 10 or 15 years. One odd thing about that governor’s race is that less than 10 years ago the Democratic candidate was in the Republican leadership in the state legislature, and the Republican nominee was a Democrat only about five years ago. So in theory they could have made their way to this point and faced off against each other, except from opposite parties. It makes me feel like this result matters less than many others. > [@DSeid](#): > > The post in which he stated that 2012 would see the House be very close to a tie and maybe go D? > Actual result? R majority of 33 I think? > > I loves me my Wang but not one of his best data crunches. > > Clearly 2012 and 2014 falsified his hypothesis. So it’s over? The generic ballot made a nice tight correlation with seats won and lost for several cycles but it will never happen again? I am dubious. But even if that’s so, that was not your objection. Someone could have snarked in all those previous cycles that it wasn’t generic candidates on the ballot. Yet somehow that tight correlation showed up that is nearly impossible to have arisen by chance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-effect-on-upcoming-senate-and-house-races/754199.md?page=3)