# Trump's Executive Order on Immigration - Let it Rip Dopers **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 29, 2017, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468 "2017-01-29T01:44:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/281 "2017-01-30T19:04:20Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > And if anyone here was using Nate Silver as their political guru you might have a point…but they aren’t, so you don’t. Hmm. Just a quick search brings [this up](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19726475&postcount=31) (you know, just as an example): “Ignore your feelings and go with Nate Silver. Why trust something as unreliable as your feelings when there are experts with great track records to trust?” ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/282 "2017-01-30T19:05:38Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Perhaps this is the wrong thread, but I have read speculation that the confusion was intentional. Trump’s administration is trying to sow dissent, so as to have cover for other changes and so as to have cause to grab more power. Honestly, that’s a lot more plausible than “they are all bumbling idiots”. Trump is certainly an unpleasant person, but I don’t think he’s stupid. And I think he is telling the truth when he smiles and says “it is working beautifully”. I agree. Cause chaos, poke the bear, twist the nipples, with the possibility of some violent backlash forthcoming, and then respond with a smackdown/unprecedented power-grab. I doubt he even cares if it’s Americans that respond with violent protest or Muslims that commit an act of terror against us. Either way, he’ll “do what has to be done in the name of Making America SAFE Again!!!11” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/283 "2017-01-30T19:08:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > By the way, Adams rather notoriously created a sock-puppet to lavish praise upon himself on discussions on other websites until he finally admitted it. So Scott Adams tried the old “Mary Rosh” gambit, huh? To the extent that he hadn’t already discredited himself, that finishes the job IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/284 "2017-01-30T19:08:50Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Hmm. Just a quick search brings [this up](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19726475&postcount=31) (you know, just as an example): > > “Ignore your feelings and go with Nate Silver. Why trust something as unreliable as your feelings when there are experts with great track records to trust?” Of course it is clear that you did not check the link on why Adams is such a dunce. As others noted he got lucky and he is conning many (just like Trump) into thinking that he is a great guru. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/285 "2017-01-30T19:09:44Z")
I’ll have to come to the mild defense of FiveThirtyEight here: the linked piece encourages the media to stop freaking out because (way back in November 2015) it was too early to tell: > [@Nate Silver](#): > > But you probably shouldn’t rely solely on the polls to make your case [that Trump will win the nomination]; it’s still too soon for that. And although Silver was ultimately wrong about Trump securing the Republican nomination, he gave him odds to win the presidency significantly higher than pretty much anybody else. If you want to cast stones at someone who got it Really Wrong, try Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. (I wonder if he ever ate the bug he promised to eat should Trump win.) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/286 "2017-01-30T19:10:56Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > I’ll have to come to the mild defense of FiveThirtyEight here: the linked piece encourages the media to stop freaking out because (way back in November 2015) it was too early to tell: > > And although Silver was ultimately wrong about Trump securing the Republican nomination, he gave him odds to win the presidency significantly higher than pretty much anybody else. If you want to cast stones at someone who got it Really Wrong, try Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. (I wonder if he ever ate the bug he promised to eat should Trump win.) Yes he did. > **[Poll expert eats bug on CNN after Trump win | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/11/12/pollster-eats-bug-after-trump-win-smerconish.cnn)** > > Poll expert Sam Wang said he would eat a bug if Donald Trump got more than 240 electoral votes. President-elect Donald Trump got 290 electoral votes and Wang held up his end of the deal. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/287 "2017-01-30T19:11:42Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > If you want to cast stones at someone who got it Really Wrong, try Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. (I wonder if he ever ate the bug he promised to eat should Trump win.) He did. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/288 "2017-01-30T19:13:47Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > I’ll have to come to the mild defense of FiveThirtyEight here: the linked piece encourages the media to stop freaking out because (way back in November 2015) it was too early to tell: > > And although Silver was ultimately wrong about Trump securing the Republican nomination, he gave him odds to win the presidency significantly higher than pretty much anybody else. If you want to cast stones at someone who got it Really Wrong, try Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. (I wonder if he ever ate the bug he promised to eat should Trump win.) He did. Live on CNN. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/289 "2017-01-30T19:14:22Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > And if anyone here was using Nate Silver as their political guru you might have a point…but they aren’t, so you don’t. And [another one](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19760250&postcount=139), on Nov 7th “That result just kept showing up over and over and over. Based on all the most recent polls and Nate’s state-by-state forecasts, I don’t see her losing any of those toss-ups. Game over, and get ready to start dodging the musket fire.” ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/290 "2017-01-30T19:16:50Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s clever, but only a very stupid person would fall for Adams’s shell game. I think the above two statements are contradictory. Adams isn’t being particularly clever. And his roundabout way of calling those opposed to Trump “morons” is blatantly stupid. I doubt there are any intelligent people who look to Adams for political analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/291 "2017-01-30T19:19:29Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > And [another one](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19760250&postcount=139), on Nov 7th > > “That result just kept showing up over and over and over. Based on all the most recent polls and Nate’s state-by-state forecasts, I don’t see her losing any of those toss-ups. Game over, and get ready to start dodging the musket fire.” Let me explain this to you in small words, because you seem especially stupid: The best facts available at the time showed that Trump was likely to lose. And in fact he lost the popular vote. Making forecasts based on the best available evidence is smart behavior. However you are, for obvious reason, incapable of understanding this. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/292 "2017-01-30T19:29:26Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Hmm. Just a quick search brings [this up](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19726475&postcount=31) (you know, just as an example): > > “Ignore your feelings and go with Nate Silver. Why trust something as unreliable as your feelings when there are experts with great track records to trust?” Unlike Adams, who predicted multiple things on multiple occasions, Nate Silver was consistent, and consistently gave Trump a substantial chance of electoral victory. And he correctly predicted the popular vote outcome within a couple of points. His prediction was, once again, relatively close to on target, if not as on-the-nose as his 2008 and 2012 predictions. He said “Trump really has a decent chance to win”, and he was right, even if he thought Hillary had a slightly larger chance of winning. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/293 "2017-01-30T19:30:14Z")
> [@](#): > > …However you are, for obvious reason, incapable of understanding this. Now, hold on a second there, hoss. Just because he doesn’t is not the same as he can’t. I’m entirely capable of drinking Coors “beer”, I don’t because water is already freely available. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/294 "2017-01-30T19:36:24Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Let me explain this to you in small words, because you seem especially stupid: The best facts available at the time showed that Trump was likely to lose. And in fact he lost the popular vote. > > Making forecasts based on the best available evidence is smart behavior. However you are, for obvious reason, incapable of understanding this. And yet, based on “best available evidence”, all the “experts” were laughably wrong (to the point of eating a bug on national TV). Yet the cartoonist, not just once, but for the whole election period, was correctly predicting the events, based on his “theory of persuasion”. Every time the “experts” were running around screaming “Trump is doomed!!!111!!”, Adams consistently predicted that the particular incident will not doom Trump but will help him. Who was right? Remind me, where is the proof of the pudding? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/295 "2017-01-30T19:41:01Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Unlike Adams, who predicted multiple things on multiple occasions, Nate Silver was consistent, and consistently gave Trump a substantial chance of electoral victory. And he correctly predicted the popular vote outcome within a couple of points. Don’t get upset. I didn’t link to your post to make fun of you. I was responding to Czarcasm’s contention that no one “here” was using Nate Silver as their political guru. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/296 "2017-01-30T19:45:06Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > And yet, based on “best available evidence”, all the “experts” were laughably wrong (to the point of eating a bug on national TV). Yet the cartoonist, not just once, but for the whole election period, was correctly predicting the events, based on his “theory of persuasion”. Every time the “experts” were running around screaming “Trump is doomed!!!111!!”, Adams consistently predicted that the particular incident will not doom Trump but will help him. Who was right? > > Remind me, where is the proof of the pudding? Yeah, I was right about your inability to comprehend. See, there’s smart bets and stupid bets (let me know if any of these words is too big). You can make a stupid bet and win, but it was still a stupid bet (for instance, it would be a bad idea to bet that you can understand this). Saying “how can it have been a stupid bet if he was right” is the definition of not understanding the difference between a stupid bet and a smart bet. I wish I knew you in person. I could make so much money off your dumb ass in poker. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/297 "2017-01-30T19:46:12Z")
BTW in all the times Scott Adams was wrong he never AFAIK accepted it. > **[Stop teabagging science, Scott Adams](https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2016/07/31/stop-teabagging-science-scott-adams/)** > > Scott Adams, the cartoonist and professional self-promoter, is undermining his brand and marketing himself poorly, again. He is complaining about the DNC in ways that demonstrate that he’s an… > **[Will Scott Adams never learn? | ScienceBlogs](https://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2007/01/30/will-scott-adams-never-learn)** > > We went round and round on this well over a year ago. Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, wrote a shallow and ignorant argument that sort of shilly-shallied over a pro-creationist argument; I pointed out how stupid his reasoning was. The response was... ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/298 "2017-01-30T19:48:01Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > And yet, based on “best available evidence”, all the “experts” were laughably wrong (to the point of eating a bug on national TV). Yet the cartoonist, not just once, but for the whole election period, was correctly predicting the events, based on his “theory of persuasion”. Every time the “experts” were running around screaming “Trump is doomed!!!111!!”, Adams consistently predicted that the particular incident will not doom Trump but will help him. Who was right? > > Remind me, where is the proof of the pudding? Adams did not consistently predict anything – his predictions changed constantly. He was right in some of his predictions and wrong in some others. Which was pretty much guaranteed considering that he predicted nearly every possible outcome at various points. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/299 "2017-01-30T19:49:09Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Providing information, probably. Participating in arrest or detention of federal officials, unlikely. Unlikely, sure. But illegal? Remember, in my scenario the marshals do the actual arresting, while all the cops do is provide backup. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2017, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468/300 "2017-01-30T19:50:25Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > See, there’s smart bets and stupid bets (let me know if any of these words is too big). You can make a stupid bet and win, but it was still a stupid bet (for instance, it would be a bad idea to bet that you can understand this). Saying “how can it have been a stupid bet if he was right” is the definition of not understanding the difference between a stupid bet and a smart bet. When it is one bet, yes. When it is a long series of bets, over and over, for the period of more than a year, and the “smart bets” keep losing, maybe they are not so smart. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-let-it-rip-dopers/778468.md?page=16)