# Trump's going to get under 40% of the vote **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468 "2016-11-02T19:28:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/1 "2016-11-02T19:28:32Z")
I feel it. Republicans will stay home in droves. Dems will not. Hell, even Ivanka will vote for Hillary. I feel it in my bones, people! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/2 "2016-11-02T19:34:16Z")
I hope your bones are right. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/3 "2016-11-02T19:37:52Z")
Over 45%. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/4 "2016-11-02T19:39:14Z")
Much as I wish it were true…not a chance. 1. The minor-party candidates’ vote share is diminishing as we approach Election Day. Hillary and The Donald will probably combine for ~95% of the vote. 2. Hillary’s not gonna win by 15 percentage points. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/5 "2016-11-02T19:44:37Z")
Even many of his “fans” will be too ashamed to vote for him. But thy will say they did, and that all their friends and neighbors did, then start screaming about a rigged election and go out for a refreshing November riot. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/6 "2016-11-02T19:48:19Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Even many of his “fans” will be too ashamed to vote for him. But thy will say they did, and that all their friends and neighbors did, then start screaming about a rigged election and go out for a refreshing November riot. Isn’t shame a public thing? If they’re telling everyone they voted for him, where does the shame come in when it comes to actually casting the secret ballot? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/7 "2016-11-02T19:49:37Z")
I’ll stand by the prediction I made in another thread a week or two ago – Trump will get about 41%. But I’ll be very pleased if it’s lower than that. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/8 "2016-11-02T19:51:56Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Even many of his “fans” will be too ashamed to vote for him. But thy will say they did, and that all their friends and neighbors did, then start screaming about a rigged election and go out for a refreshing November riot. Even in the bluest of blue states that I live in Trump supporters are very quick to show their loyalty and tell you how he’s going to win. None of them are going to stay home. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/9 "2016-11-02T19:58:19Z")
Republicans will go to the voting booth and when they get there very few won’t pull the lever for anyone but a Republican. He’s already decreased the turnout for the GOP by some amount, some number of Republicans will vote for Hillary or third party, some independents will do the same, and he loses a close election in the popular vote. He’ll be a few points behind Hillary, that’s all that will happen. If there was a more popular third party candidate then he’d go well below 40 points and you may see that in Utah but nowhere else. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/10 "2016-11-02T20:02:02Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > Even in the bluest of blue states that I live in Trump supporters are very quick to show their loyalty and tell you how he’s going to win. None of them are going to stay home. Because by proclaiming their support for Trump, they’re beating their chests about how bad ass they are. They won’t want to publicly admit that they’re as afraid as the rest of us what might happen if he wins. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/11 "2016-11-02T20:05:11Z")
I applaud you for putting out such optimistic vibes into the universe. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/12 "2016-11-02T20:07:29Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Because by proclaiming their support for Trump, they’re beating their chests about how bad ass they are. They won’t want to publicly admit that they’re as afraid as the rest of us what might happen if he wins. This makes no sense at all on any level, and is unsupported by any evidence or common sense. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/13 "2016-11-02T20:08:43Z")
Care to make a wager? This is pure deluded wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/14 "2016-11-02T20:09:52Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This makes no sense at all on any level, and is unsupported by any evidence or common sense. Kinda like a claim made in 2012 that Obama would be impeached by 2015. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![joyfool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/df788c/32.png) [@joyfool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joyfool)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/15 "2016-11-02T20:12:30Z")
Yeah, that’s not happening in my corner of Texas. They’re turning out in a pretty steady drove 'round these parts. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/16 "2016-11-02T20:13:38Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This makes no sense at all on any level, and is unsupported by any evidence or common sense. What do you expect? Trump supporters aren’t interested in evidence or common sense, or at least not publicly so. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/17 "2016-11-02T20:19:27Z")
A lot depends on the psychology of the “grievance voter”, the guy who’s mad as hell, and isn’t going to take it any more. That’s not the attitude of patient forbearance. And in many states, patience is a requirement that they don’t list. You don’t have to wait in a long line to go to a rally, and wear a t-shirt. And you don’t go to perform a dreary duty, you go there to get excited and yell stuff. My take is that they mostly won’t. They may get as far as the polling place, but look at the lines and say “Well, sure, the lines are too long, because its rigged! So, fuck it!”. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/18 "2016-11-02T20:25:51Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Because by proclaiming their support for Trump, they’re beating their chests about how bad ass they are. They won’t want to publicly admit that they’re as afraid as the rest of us what might happen if he wins. Uh …what? Most Trumpers I’ve encountered \*genuinely \*want him to win. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/19 "2016-11-02T20:27:55Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > My take is that they mostly won’t. They may get as far as the polling place, but look at the lines and say “Well, sure, the lines are too long, because its rigged! So, fuck it!”. Long lines are mostly a thing in urban areas. Lots of us in rural areas are in and out of the polls in 15 minutes or so. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/20 "2016-11-02T20:32:09Z")
Yeah, I know. Sure, why would anyone put a bunch of voting machines in places where there are lots of people? Wouldn’t make much sense, unless somebody wants them to vote. (grumble, grumble) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468.md?page=2)