# Trump's going to get under 40% of the vote **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468 "2016-11-02T19:28:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/41 "2016-11-03T15:33:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Depends on gender. It’s been speculated, and it wouldn’t surprise me, that a nontrivial number of women in conservative families favor Clinton, but are keeping their mouths shut to keep the peace since the men in their lives are loudly pro-Trump. It also wouldn’t surprise me that in a non-trivial number of those households the man has ensured both ballots are filled out and sealed in his presence. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/42 "2016-11-03T15:35:28Z")
In my county roughly one half of all registered voters have already voted. See [http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213](http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213) So far there doesn’t seem to be strong bias for which party has voted more. The totals favor the Ds, but there are also a lot more registered Ds. So far the Ds are slightly more enthusiastic, but not hugely so. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/43 "2016-11-03T15:46:07Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Even many of his “fans” will be too ashamed to vote for him. But thy will say they did, and that all their friends and neighbors did, then start screaming about a rigged election and go out for a refreshing November riot. I’m afraid of exactly the opposite, that many people with hold their nose and vote for him, but never admit it. It will be interesting to see how closely exit polling matches reality. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/44 "2016-11-03T15:56:49Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > It also wouldn’t surprise me that in a non-trivial number of those households the man has ensured both ballots are filled out and sealed in his presence. It would surprise me, because there aren’t a lot of states where voting by mail is common. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/45 "2016-11-03T16:11:35Z")
According to this [http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx](http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx) you’re probably incorrect. 27 states permit absentee voting for any reason. 20 more require some “valid reason”, but “I can’t get off work on Election day” is easy to claim and a valid excuse in all states. So that’s 47 of the 51 jurisdictions including DC. You may be right that in years past absentee voting may not have been as popular as it has been available. I looked for, but didn’t find good data on that. For sure with all the hoopla about poll “watchers”, anybody with half a brain votes early one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/46 "2016-11-03T16:21:13Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > It would surprise me, because there aren’t a lot of states where voting by mail is common. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > According to this [http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx](http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx) you’re probably incorrect. 27 states permit absentee voting for any reason. 20 more require some “valid reason”, but “I can’t get off work on Election day” is easy to claim and a valid excuse in all states. > > So that’s 47 of the 51 jurisdictions including DC. > > You may be right that in years past absentee voting may not have been as popular as it has been available. I looked for, but didn’t find good data on that. > > For sure with all the hoopla about poll “watchers”, anybody with half a brain votes early one way or the other. Slightly different things. **RTF** is talking about whether folks actually do vote by mail and you’re talking about whether or not the are legally allowed to. It’s pretty common in CA, though. I believe in my county we’re well past 25% of voters voting by mail. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/47 "2016-11-03T17:12:08Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > According to this [http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx](http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx) you’re probably incorrect. 27 states permit absentee voting for any reason. 20 more require some “valid reason”, but “I can’t get off work on Election day” is easy to claim and a valid excuse in all states. Absentee voting is different from commonplace voting by mail, as is the case in Oregon. In some states I’d bet a lot of people don’t even know they can vote by mail, or if they do on vaguely so and wouldn’t know how to do it. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/48 "2016-11-03T17:38:37Z")
I don’t know if this is applicable, but in 2012 Obama did 1 points worse in Florida than he did nationally while Romney did 2 points better. National 51-47, Florida 50-49. Obama won both. With early results from Florida showing 48-40 for Clinton, can that be extrapolated to a 49-50% Clinton, 38% Trump in the national results? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/49 "2016-11-03T17:42:08Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > … > You may be right that in years past absentee voting may not have been as popular as it has been available. I looked for, but didn’t find good data on that. > … As I said. In today’s communication-besotted country, I have a hard time believing that many people have no idea that they can vote absentee. That they haven’t chosen to do so; that I can easily believe. I predict that there will be many widely publicized problems with in-person voting on election day. Which will only increase the percentages voting early or absentee in future years. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/50 "2016-11-03T17:42:41Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Depends on gender. It’s been speculated, and it wouldn’t surprise me, that a nontrivial number of women in conservative families favor Clinton, but are keeping their mouths shut to keep the peace since the men in their lives are loudly pro-Trump. That would be a pro **Thump** household. I’m afraid you may be right. > [@LSGuy](#): > > It also wouldn’t surprise me that in a non-trivial number of those households the man has ensured both ballots are filled out and sealed in his presence. I Brought that up in another thread. The mail in ballots may not be so private. My Wife and I usually vote together with the mail in ballot. Don’t have to, just like to sometimes talk about some down ballot issues, read the blue book share our opinions. I think we disagreed on one state issue this time. No big deal, we made our points and voted. To consider living with or being married too a person that supported Trump would really make either of us consider some things (what did you do with my spouse). ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/51 "2016-11-03T22:36:28Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > As I said. > > In today’s communication-besotted country, I have a hard time believing that many people have no idea that they can vote absentee. That they haven’t chosen to do so; that I can easily believe. > > I predict that there will be many widely publicized problems with in-person voting on election day. Which will only increase the percentages voting early or absentee in future years. In my state you can’t vote absentee unless you are disabled, over 65, can prove you have to work from 6am-6pm, etc. Also the republicans have made it very hard to vote early in my county. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468/52 "2016-11-03T23:43:27Z")
In New York State it’s be there or be square. Either vote in-person on election day or prove you won’t be in your district on that day. Our polls are open from 6AM until 9PM, so you got all day but only that particular day. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-going-to-get-under-40-of-the-vote/770468.md?page=2)