# Trump's realistic path to reelection in 2020 (if any exists) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 20, 2019, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828 "2019-04-20T22:28:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/41 "2019-04-23T07:55:09Z")
Keep in mind that in a caucus situation, participants can see in real time if their candidate is going to clear the 15% hurdle and switch to their second choice if necessary. So with a very large field of candidates, a caucus may actually be more democratic than a primary election. But I don’t really get why a contested convention would be a disaster for the Democrats. Of course it _could_ turn ugly and divisive, but so could a close primary battle that\* doesn’t \*result in a contested convention. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/42 "2019-04-23T11:42:35Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Keep in mind that in a caucus situation, participants can see in real time if their candidate is going to clear the 15% hurdle and switch to their second choice if necessary. So with a very large field of candidates, a caucus may actually be more democratic than a primary election. > > But I don’t really get why a contested convention would be a disaster for the Democrats. Of course it _could_ turn ugly and divisive, but so could a close primary battle that\* doesn’t \*result in a contested convention. The worst kind of contested election for Dems would be a centrist candidate “stealing” an election from a more hardline progressive. Think Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden “stealing” an election from Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The more ardent progressives wouldn’t accept the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/43 "2019-04-23T12:09:08Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The worst kind of contested election for Dems would be a centrist candidate “stealing” an election from a more hardline progressive. Think Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden “stealing” an election from Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The more ardent progressives wouldn’t accept the outcome. I think the biggest obstacle for Democrats are the Berniebots. They’re just as much a personality cult as the MAGAbots. If they perceive that Bernie should have won the nomination but doesn’t, they’ll sit out the election and hand a second term to that felon in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/44 "2019-04-23T12:28:26Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college. > > Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That’s why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them. > > Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Single payer health care (and variations) has been a Democratic goal for decades. “Open borders” is a bullshit characterization of most of the candidates’ positions. “Higher taxes and more spending” than the present level is also entirely mundane, and nothing new – is it really shocking that one party is in favor of higher taxes on the rich, and more social spending, than the other? In short, this is a false characterization of the Democratic field that no doubt makes the GOP spin-meisters very happy to see “out in the wild”. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/45 "2019-04-23T12:28:41Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Voters may say “Yeah, Trump is a douchebag - can’t stand the guy myself. But I’m getting a steady paycheck and pay increases, and that wasn’t happening a few years ago. I don’t wanna just reverse everything because Trump’s a d-bag.” There’s the realistic path to re-election the thread title asks for. For very very large part of American society the pay stub on the 30th of this month beats “institutional order” over a generation, and the figure of the “a\*\*hole boss” is just a common trope of life, not a deal-breaker. The smear machine will be at it as usual. If the Dems on top of it get mired in a huge kerfuffle about trying to figure out who would be the absolutely perfect candidate, either from the ideological or electability viewpoints, that just oils the gears. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/46 "2019-04-23T12:49:07Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college. > > Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That’s why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them. > > Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. What a bunch of recycled pablum. > [@](#): > > They all want open borders Right-speak for “they don’t hate Latinos”. Who precisely is for open borders? > [@](#): > > They all want higher taxes and more spending. We need higher taxes to rein in the Republican deficits. We need more spending on infrastructure and education. > [@](#): > > but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. What a quaint term! Southern border states? Like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri where Democrats have no chance in no matter what they do. Kamala Harris could fellate an AK-47 and still not carry Kentucky. > [@](#): > > heavily funded progressive left Ha. By who? Don’t tell me- the eeeeeeeeeeeeevil George Soros. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/47 "2019-04-23T14:34:38Z")
Keep in mind, by the way, that the border areas are all Democratic. Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. Apparently the people who live there don’t actually fear Hispanics as much as Republicans think they should. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/48 "2019-04-23T14:37:25Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Keep in mind, by the way, that the border areas are all Democratic. Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. Apparently the people who live there don’t actually fear Hispanics as much as Republicans think they should. A lot of people who live in the border states ARE Hispanic, and Hispanics generally vote Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/49 "2019-04-23T14:40:03Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Democrats are energized. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/50 "2019-04-23T14:51:03Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Keep in mind, by the way, that the border areas are all Democratic. Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. Apparently the people who live there don’t actually fear Hispanics as much as Republicans think they should. Oh nuts, my bad. I thought SS was referring to Civil War border states. Still- California and New Mexico are blue and will stay that way, Texas is red and will stay that way. The only state that borders Mexico that is in play is Arizona. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/51 "2019-04-23T15:24:42Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > … Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. … This is false. For example, in Arizona, Trump won both Yuma and Cochise County. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/52 "2019-04-23T16:59:51Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Voters may say “Yeah, Trump is a douchebag - can’t stand the guy myself. But I’m getting a steady paycheck and pay increases, and that wasn’t happening a few years ago. I don’t wanna just reverse everything because Trump’s a d-bag.” Agreed. We’re too far from the election to make decent predictions, but if the economy come election time is similar to what it is now, I think Trump will win. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/53 "2019-04-23T18:41:11Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Oh nuts, my bad. I thought SS was referring to Civil War border states. Still- California and New Mexico are blue and will stay that way, Texas is red and will stay that way. The only state that borders Mexico that is in play is Arizona. I think we’re still 2-3 presidential cycles out but the phenomenal growth of the state’s cities coupled with a growing latino share of the electorate turns Texas blue. I think 2020 is a bridge too far, however. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/54 "2019-04-23T19:04:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The worst kind of contested election for Dems would be a centrist candidate “stealing” an election from a more hardline progressive. Think Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden “stealing” an election from Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The more ardent progressives wouldn’t accept the outcome. I’m not sure that it would be any better party unity-wise if it were Sanders being perceived as having “stolen” the election from Biden. But again, a very close election isn’t necessarily the same as an election whose integrity is in question. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/55 "2019-04-23T19:11:36Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > What happens if no one gets over 15%? Are the delegates then uncommitted? How about if only one gets over that level? Do they get them all? These are not hypothetical questions. It’s quite possible either or both will happen. I assume this is limited to the Democrats, since the Republican primary rules can vary wildly from one state to the next. If only one candidate gets 15% at a particular level (Congressional district or statewide), that candidate gets all of the delegates at that level. If none do, then the delegates go to the candidates that got at least half as many votes as the winner did at that level. (Some states claim to use the old “within 10% of the winner” rule, but the Call for the Convention implies that they all have to use the “at least half of the winner” rule in 2020.) Keep in mind that, except in states that have only one Representative, about 2/3 of the delegates are at Congressional district level. ---
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/56 "2019-04-23T19:46:21Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > The Republicans realize they can win if only they can keep enough Democrats from voting. And they are working very hard on that. Throw out registrations, restrict weekend voting, close polling stations, you name it. A friend of mine lived in Ohio in 2000 and they took many voting booths out of Cleveland to relocate in the sticks. Some Clevelanders waiting four hours to vote. Many gave up. Turning Ohio would have cost Bush the election. i have friends planning on going out to pick up people and take them to polling stations, calling/visiting to make sure people are registered and taking them to get reregistered if they mysteriously got struck from the rolls … stuff like that. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/57 "2019-04-23T19:51:32Z")
> [@aruvqan](#): > > i have friends planning on going out to pick up people and take them to polling stations, calling/visiting to make sure people are registered and taking them to get reregistered if they mysteriously got struck from the rolls … stuff like that. That’s assuming that sort of thing is legal once the election rolls around. Not even kidding. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/58 "2019-04-23T21:32:52Z")
Yeah, there’s a bill up for a vote in Texas that would make it illegal to carpool to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/59 "2019-04-23T22:18:58Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > I’m not sure that it would be any better party unity-wise if it were Sanders being perceived as having “stolen” the election from Biden. But again, a very close election isn’t necessarily the same as an election whose integrity is in question. Agreed - Sanders could “steal” the election from Sanders. And some old dog Democrats may refuse to accept the progressive anti-establishment turn of the party. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828/60 "2019-04-23T23:10:43Z")
I suspect that the Supreme Court is going to allow the citizenship question on the census, allowing the GOP fro preventing the fair distribution of House seats, couple with Trump’s re-election giving him at least one more seat to fill, this is about it folks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-realistic-path-to-reelection-in-2020-if-any-exists/832828.md?page=2)