# Trump's reported increases in minority-voter support are - at best - heavily exaggerated **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 21, 2024, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157 "2024-06-21T15:17:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2024, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/21 "2024-06-21T19:00:26Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > The narrative I’ve heard about Black support for Republicans (not necessarily Trump) is that they’re tired of shitty public schools and agree with GOP efforts to divert state funding to private schools they believe will offer better education. This is what the Republican overhaul of the education system will look like from the perspective of those Black families going to them to fix the issue. [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdW0NOzWQAA53Yb.jpg) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdW0NOzWQAA53Yb.jpg) The Republican Party is the bat. Hopefully we never see this actually happen, for everyone’s sake. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2024, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/22 "2024-06-21T19:03:11Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The media is desperate to try to find daily happenings upon which to peg horse race articles. Trump is normally very obliging in providing these, even if he sometimes has to be dragged there. (Hint: trial.) He’s a showman; he vastly prefers show to politics One notes that this is almost entirely the basis for Trump’s success in politics. If the media treated him like any other joke candidate and simply ignored him, we’d have never had the first Trump presidency, and we wouldn’t be looking at a second one. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2024, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/23 "2024-06-21T19:15:16Z")
Trump mostly was treated as a joke candidate until he won the primaries. The expectation was that Republicans would gather behind one of the more conventional candidates and the media slanted its coverage toward what it understood. It still does. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2024, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/24 "2024-06-21T19:22:34Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The only religion involved here is the Cult of Trump-Worship, which just pushes the same question back one level, to why people join that cult. ⁢ Trump may not profess a religion, but he’s successfully branded himself as an ally to a certain type of religion. That religion cares more about authoritarianism and attacking progressive society than it does about Jesus. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/25 "2024-06-22T00:54:49Z")
Moderating: @bordelond, the large blocks of content you quoted violates fair use doctrine. We discourage such use, particularly with little OP commentary. Please copy only what is necessary to facilitate the discussion you wish to have. Best to summarize in your own words, then let others follow the links. Please be mindful of this in future. I’m going to give your quoted bits a wee haircut. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/26 "2024-06-22T01:14:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Except that can’t be it, either, because Donald Trump claims no religion . . . He claims to be a former presbyterian and to now be a non-denominational Christian. > **[Trump Becomes the First President Since Eisenhower to Change Faiths in Office](https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2020/october/trump-nondenominational-presbyterian-religious-eisenhower.html)** > > Like many Christians switching churches, he now identifies as nondenominational This makes sense. His childhood minister was Norman Vincent Peale, he of the prosperity gospel. While the prosperity gospel was never exactly mainstream American Presbyianterianism, now it is more broadly rejected. As to the demographics of Trump’s supporters and detractors having changed a bit in the last four years – yes. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2024, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/27 "2024-06-23T00:01:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > > [@Velocity](#): > > > > The other thing I think Democrats often miss is that for many people, the big R word isn’t race, but religion. > > Except that can’t be it, either, because Donald Trump claims no religion, and fits perfectly the standards of the most common religions of being who you shouldn’t vote for. You speak here the perspective of what’s supposed to be notionally what the established religious precepts teach. **Velocity** however is explaining from the perspective of that there are people for whom a particular religio-denominational _ideology_ is an _identity marker_. These are people for whom in the phrase “Religious Right” the necessary condition is the second word. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2024, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/28 "2024-06-23T00:55:32Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Similarly for courting Latino voters in Pennsylvania On the other hand, there is this: > **[Democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support)** > > The trend is real in polls, and in at least some election results. [![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0fe4f259-b01c-4b03-99bd-6ac7dbff23ee_2727x1925.png) ](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0fe4f259-b01c-4b03-99bd-6ac7dbff23ee_2727x1925.png) Starr County is 98% Hispanic, and this was an actual election result, so one can’t claim that it’s just polling bias. And interestingly, the decrease in the gap appears to be largely due to new voters. I can’t find it now, but at least one opinion piece I read suggested that there’s been a change in, basically, embarrassment. That for many years it was socially unacceptable for Black/Hispanic people to vote Republican _even when their values aligned strongly with that party_ (such as on religious issues). And that this effect is slowly wearing off. If true, it could explain results like those in Starr County. Right-leaning voters who previously stayed home are now coming out to vote. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/29 "2024-06-24T14:26:03Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I can’t find it now, but at least one opinion piece I read suggested that there’s been a change in, basically, embarrassment. That for many years it was socially unacceptable for Black/Hispanic people to vote Republican _even when their values aligned strongly with that party_ (such as on religious issues). And that this effect is slowly wearing off. [**Columnist Perry Bacon wrote about this exact thing last fall in the _Washington Post_**](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/03/people-of-color-voting-republican-2024/). Unfortunately, I am unable to come up with an untethered link (though this article is not paywalled on my iPhone). For anyone able to read this column, it’s about 2/3 of the way down when Bacon (an African-American) recounts speaking to one of his father’s friends, in whispers, about having voted for Trump. I read your link to Nate Silver’s Substack, and I take issue with his titling – “hemorrhaging support” is too strong to the point of dishonesty IMHO. And further, that title makes it look as if the “hemorrhaging” is happening all over the nation at about the same clip. Still further: Silver reprints a _Financial Times_ graphic which adds misleading arrows to the measured levels of minority support for Democratic/Republican presidential candidates. Through 2020, the graphic is based on vote counts. The arrows to 2024, however, are presumably based on one recent _NYT_ poll. It’s all cited, but the source-mixing is weaselly and is implying too much. [![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa526fe26-27e8-4f2d-bd42-93af16ac6cab_2800x1736.jpeg) ](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa526fe26-27e8-4f2d-bd42-93af16ac6cab_2800x1736.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/30 "2024-06-24T14:46:36Z")
_(Hit ENTER too early, and then missed the Edit window)_ Further yet: Starr County, Texas shows the sharpest Republican rise in minority support of any county in the U.S. However, it’s neighboring counties have seen similar rises – the more urban/suburban **[Hidalgo County](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidalgo_County,_Texas#Government_and_politics)** less so (by percentage) than the sparsely-populated **[Zapata County](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zapata_County,_Texas#Government_and_politics)**. All three counties rest along the Rio Grande River west of Brownsville. While, yes, all that increased Republican support counts toward nationwide numbers … I still can’t help thinking that those stark rises are much more a specific areal effect of socio-cultural conditions taking place in south Texas and less something that’s reflective of nationwide trends. I stand by the “heavily exaggerated” portion of the OP’s title (see again “hemorrhaging”). Even Kuo and Rosenberg (cited in the OP and Post #3) concede that minority support for Republican candidates is rising. What they – and I – don’t concede is that such support is accelerating to the point that the death knell for Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign has already been rung. Indeed, Rosenberg and _NYT_ columnist David French (among others) have each written about realigning coalitions for both Trump and Biden’s 2024 campaigns. **[As French wrote in April](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/opinion/trump-politics-race-identity.html)** (apologies for paywall): > According to 2016 exit polls, for example, [Donald Trump improved](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html) on [Mitt Romney’s performance](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html) with Black, Hispanic and Asian voters in 2012, and then he [did better again in 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html) — despite losing the popular vote by a much greater margin in 2020 than he did in 2016. How did this happen? He did better with voters of color, but that was offset by a worse performance with white voters. He won the white vote by 21 percent against Hillary Clinton. Against Joe Biden, his margin narrowed to 17 points. **Put another way, the racial gap narrowed in both directions. A higher percentage of minority voters voted for Trump, and a higher percentage of white voters voted for Biden.** ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/31 "2024-06-24T15:05:53Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > I stand by the “heavily exaggerated” portion of the OP’s title (see again “hemorrhaging”). I think intensifier words like heavily are overused in punditry, both professional and amateur. However, I question whether the word [hemorrhaging](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/hemorrhage) implies that the level of bleeding is severe, Besides, I like Nate 😀 ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/32 "2024-06-24T15:13:56Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Besides, I like Nate 😀 Maybe not his fault, but the far-right makeup of _The Silver Bulletin’s_ comments section gives me pause. They are seeing something they like on his Substack, and IMHO that’s not a good thing. > However, I question whether the word [hemorrhaging](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/hemorrhage) implies that the level of bleeding is severe Dueling cites – though I am also satisfied to let the house decide for themselves: > **[Definition of HEMORRHAGE](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hemorrhage)** > > a copious or heavy discharge of blood from the blood vessels; a rapid and uncontrollable loss or outflow… See the full definition ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/33 "2024-06-24T15:23:36Z")
There are how many thousands of counties in the US? I don’t think it’s meaningful to look at any one county, especially not the one specifically selected to show a trend most extremely. When I see a result like that, I don’t conclude that there’s something going on with Hispanic voting patterns; I conclude that there’s something going on with that specific county. What, exactly, I don’t know enough about that locale to say. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/34 "2024-06-24T15:38:02Z")
The Texas Tribune – home of the finest political reporting in the state – looked into why numerous South Texas counties moved strongly toward Trump after overwhelmingly voting for Clinton in 2016. The answer, unsurprisingly, seems to be mix of both 2020-specific and longer-term factors. Biden’s perceived hostility toward the oil and gas industry and “defund the police” rhetoric played poorly in a region where energy and law enforcement are major employers. More broadly, the region is largely rural and culturally conservative and has been kept in the Democratic column as long as it has in part through political machines that have started to break down. > **[Donald Trump made inroads in South Texas this year. These voters explain why.](https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/south-texas-voters-donald-trump/)** > > Voters in the historically Democratic stronghold of South Texas are left wondering whether this was simply a strange election during an unusual year or a sign of a profound political realignment in the region. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/35 "2024-06-24T15:40:25Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Biden’s perceived hostility toward the oil and gas industry and “defund the police” rhetoric played poorly in a region where energy and law enforcement are major employers. It seems to me that the mere existence of a region where law enforcement is a major employer must be a symptom of some deep problem. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/36 "2024-06-24T15:41:15Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It seems to me that the mere existence of a region where law enforcement is a major employer must be a symptom of some deep problem. There’s a border down there. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/37 "2024-06-24T15:47:02Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Biden’s perceived hostility toward the oil and gas industry and “defund the police” rhetoric I’m not sure where your “perceived” starts and ends but Biden was consistent in rejecting the “defund the police” movement and, even if he hadn’t, Trump had already passed an executive order that did just that - I presume, in the belief that it would help him with the black vote. ---
**Author:** ![bobsmom101](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobsmom101/32/2867_2.png) [@bobsmom101](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobsmom101)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/38 "2024-06-24T21:51:23Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Trump had already passed an executive order that did just that - I presume, in the belief that it would help him with the black vote. Um, _what_? I did a quick Google and all I could find was: > **[Trump, Hailing Law Enforcement, Signs Executive Order Calling For Police Reform](https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/877601170/watch-live-trump-to-sign-executive-order-on-police-reform)** > > The president is facing political pressure to take action following the national outcry over the killing of George Floyd and others at the hands of police. Which was a largely symbolic gesture focused on training. And “defunding the police” was never any part of any Democratic party platform. It was a slogan used by far left groups to attract attention. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/39 "2024-06-24T22:39:40Z")
Probably referring to this claim back then by Biden (marked true!): > **[CNN's Facts First searchable database - CNN](https://www.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics/factcheck_675fff6a-791d-4092-8213-2e33a502656d)** > > Search CNN’s Facts First database for fact checks related to the U.S. economy, mail-in voting, coronavirus, police reform and more. > “The only one defunding, in his budget calls for a $400 million cut in local law enforcement assistance,” Biden said, referring to the president. > > CONCLUSION > This is true. While Trump has been a vocal opponent of the concept of defunding the police, his administration’s 2021 budget proposed funding cuts for local law enforcement programs. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157/40 "2024-06-24T23:00:44Z")
IMHO, one problem with both Democratic and Republican thinking is the notion that “white = in” and “non-white = out.” That is to say, they think that voters think that white Americans think they’re the true Americans while everyone non-white is considered an outside and views themselves as an outsider. When in fact, minorities can get just as much a sense of “in” attitude once they’ve been here a generation or two. You can find racial minorities who complain, “Why are those illegal immigrants taking OUR jobs!” or having some bias against outsiders. That may explain the shift from minorities from (D) to (R.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-reported-increases-in-minority-voter-support-are-at-best-heavily-exaggerated/1003157.md?page=3)