# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 102
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2025 "2016-02-26T20:01:44Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Stony Brook University political science professor produces a statistical model which has correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1912. [The model says Trump’s the winner.](http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says) I can produce a model that will correctly predict every president going back to 1789, and predicts that George Clooney will be President in 2016. What do I win? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2026 "2016-02-26T20:02:56Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Stony Brook University political science professor produces a statistical model which has correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1912. [The model says Trump’s the winner.](http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says) Unless he is a time traveler, his model did not correctly predict all of those elections. He is creating a model from the elections. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2027 "2016-02-26T20:04:37Z")
Mine came up with a prediction of Rosemary Clooney. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2028 "2016-02-26T20:08:59Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Right when Rubio really does seem to be [hitting his stride](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/26/that-time-marco-rubio-went-full-trump-on-donald-trump/?postshare=6441456506719323) in jabbing at Trump. Implying he wet his pants–wow, Marco. Ladies and gentlemen, I present the party of Lincoln, 2016. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2029 "2016-02-26T20:13:16Z")
Trump’s rally in Huntsville on Sunday has been moved from a local building to a High School Football stadium which will hold 3-4,000 in the stands and maybe a couple thousand more on the field, which is more than the indoor site could hold. So maybe his folks are anticipating a large crowd on Sunday. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2030 "2016-02-26T20:26:19Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Trump’s rally in Huntsville on Sunday has been moved from a local building to a High School Football stadium which will hold 3-4,000 in the stands and maybe a couple thousand more on the field, which is more than the indoor site could hold. So maybe his folks are anticipating a large crowd on Sunday. They need room for the Photshopped crowds. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2031 "2016-02-26T20:27:23Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > They need room for the Photshopped crowds. 😃 It’s about 5 miles from my house, maybe I’ll have a peek. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2032 "2016-02-26T20:38:05Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Mine came up with a prediction of Rosemary Clooney. Great. Another political dynasty. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2033 "2016-02-26T20:43:24Z")
[High schoolers in a small town in Iowa chanted “Trump Trump Trump” at the Latino players from another school.](http://bipartisanreport.com/2016/02/25/watch-highschoolers-now-using-trump-chant-to-harass-hispanic-classmates-video/) ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2034 "2016-02-26T20:46:28Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [High schoolers in a small town in Iowa chanted “Trump Trump Trump” at the Latino players from another school.](http://bipartisanreport.com/2016/02/25/watch-highschoolers-now-using-trump-chant-to-harass-hispanic-classmates-video/) While that is shameful behavior, I have to admit it was rather clever of them. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2035 "2016-02-26T20:47:42Z")
Huh? ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2036 "2016-02-26T20:49:13Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Huh? It’s an indirect enough insult that I’m surprised teenaged kids could come up with it. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2037 "2016-02-26T20:50:12Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Stony Brook University political science professor produces a statistical model which has correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1912. [The model says Trump’s the winner.](http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says) [President Romney will be upset at this fact.](http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university) It’s called back-fitting your data. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2038 "2016-02-26T21:22:32Z")
I don’t believe that’s the same model–I think like every college’s political science department has built out a presidential prediction model. This one from the Stony Brook professor did not predict Romney as the 2012 winner, now or then. But yes, most of these models accurately predict most past elections because they tweak the models continually until it mostly matches prior results. [This](http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/polisci/professors/norpoth.html) link has a PDF of the prediction he posted during the 2012 primaries, and it correctly predicted Obama would win reelection. His model is called the “primary model.” ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2039 "2016-02-26T21:33:54Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I don’t believe that’s the same model–I think like every college’s political science department has built out a presidential prediction model. This one from the Stony Brook professor did not predict Romney as the 2012 winner, now or then. But yes, most of these models accurately predict most past elections because they tweak the models continually until it mostly matches prior results. > > [This](http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/polisci/professors/norpoth.html) link has a PDF of the prediction he posted during the 2012 primaries, and it correctly predicted Obama would win reelection. > > His model is called the “primary model.” No, it isn’t the same model. But my point was exactly what you’re saying in the first paragraph - fitting the data this strongly has little value and means virtually nothing. You can be right for the wrong reasons, and wrong for the right reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2040 "2016-02-26T22:18:54Z")
I’d be much more interested in a model that predicts Senate elections reliably, even if retrospectively. At least there’s a statistically meaningful amount of information there, unlike presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2041 "2016-02-26T22:30:10Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > a statistical model which has correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1912. [The model says Trump’s the winner.](http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says) According to the link, it also says Nixon would beat JFK in 1960. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2042 "2016-02-26T22:34:36Z")
Shouldn’t a good model fail to predict lots of elections that clearly turned on exogenous events? Or does it anticipate presidential burglary and electoral college/popular vote splits, etc? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2043 "2016-02-26T23:17:25Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Shouldn’t a good model fail to predict lots of elections that clearly turned on exogenous events? Or does it anticipate presidential burglary and electoral college/popular vote splits, etc? Why would it need to anticipate electoral college/popular vote splits? Electoral college is all that matters. It would of course have to use state level popular support to estimate the electoral college votes. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2044 "2016-02-26T23:20:40Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > According to the link, it also says Nixon would beat JFK in 1960. The article says they think the 1960 election was rigged. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=101) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=103)