# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 145
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2885 "2016-03-26T22:01:46Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > The big drop in the aggregate polls seen by Trump against Bernie or Hillary in recent weeks is hard to explain unless one takes into account that the majority of Americans are not believing in that “intention”. Besides, his official talking point is that it was a lousy earpiece that caused that snafu (implying that Trump would had come with what \*\*drad dog \*\*expected Trump to respond), it is really sad to continue to make the point about what he intended there. What is sad is that the antique conceptual and rhetorical toolkit utilized by the majority of Trump’s most vocal detractors, and the desperation with which they cling to it in the face of clear evidence of it’s obsolescence. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2886 "2016-03-26T22:07:14Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > What is sad is that the antique conceptual and rhetorical toolkit utilized by the majority of Trump’s most vocal detractors, and the desperation with which they cling to it in the face of clear evidence of it’s obsolescence. Nonsence. Trump is not the only people that can be subjected to analysis that you only deny because it does not fit your narrative. In this case your very simple affirmation that what Trump is doing is “working” falls flat on its face once we look at what all the people and voters are reporting to pollsters in recent weeks. As mentioned before, it may be working among a good chunk of Republicans, but it is clearly not working for several Republicans and almost all Democrats and many independents. ---
**Author:** ![computergeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e56c9b/32.png) [@computergeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/computergeek)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2887 "2016-03-26T22:07:15Z")
Hopefully this wasn’t already posted Trump had a rather enlightening interview with the New York Times that focused on what his foreign policy would be [In Donald Trump’s Worldview, America Comes First, and Everybody Else Pays - The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share&_r=0) His views suggest he would piss off and lose nearly every one of our allies. I’m a tad bit alarmed ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2888 "2016-03-26T22:08:19Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Among republicans yes, but not all of them and pointing that it is “working” really does not mean good news or a flattering thing to report as you are implying. What I mean by working is that he currently has, by a rough factor of ten, a higher chance of being the next president of the United States than all but one other person. And he has nearly half as much chance as her. That is according to collective wisdom, I give him a little better chance, 40-50% or slightly higher. I think people are not estimating all of the factors realistically. But like you and everyone else, I am mostly guessing at this point. Trump has destroyed a lot of the rule book, and no one knows the extent of this yet. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2889 "2016-03-26T22:12:28Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > What I mean by working is that he currently has, by a rough factor of ten, a higher chance of being the next president of the United States than all but one other person. And he has nearly half as much chance as her. That is according to collective wisdom, I give him a little better chance, 40-50% or slightly higher. I think people are not estimating all of the factors realistically. But like you and everyone else, I am mostly guessing at this point. Trump has destroyed a lot of the rule book, and no one knows the extent of this yet. Just the Republican rule book, much to the chagrin of the establishment Republicans of course. I’m a bit more optimistic of Trump not having an easy time at all in the general election, because it is clear to me that there will plenty of right wing media sources that will tell us, and many of their right wing viewers and readers, that Trump is not the sharpest tool in the shed. IMHO there will be plenty of propaganda coming from Trump and Clinton that will only work for their own groups, but the trouble for Trump is that a lot of the media that was supposed to be on his side has already told us that Trump is not the right choice for America… ever. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2890 "2016-03-26T22:19:09Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Just the Republican rule book, much to the chagrin of the establishment Republicans of course. That’s like watching a wildfire advance from an adjacent upwind property and expecting a wooden fence to protect you. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2891 "2016-03-26T22:25:33Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > That’s like watching a wildfire advance from an adjacent upwind property and expecting a wooden fence to protect you. Again, taking into account how the minorities voter’s opinions are hardening more against Trump and seeing how the recent matching polls are reacting to recent events, and the good number of right wing media sources that will tell their viewers and readers “no way” to Trump in the general election, it is clear that you are missing the fire barriers and fire proofing already applied to the upwind properties. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2892 "2016-03-26T22:38:07Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Again, taking into account how the minorities voter’s opinions are hardening more against Trump I haven’t seen much good evidence one way or another of how many minority voters are likely to vote for him. I predict he could get a higher percent of black voters than anyone since Reagan, and quite possibly more than Reagan. Of course that was only 14%. All Trump has to do is to flip one in ten of the black voters who voted for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2893 "2016-03-26T22:54:12Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > I haven’t seen much good evidence one way or another of how many minority voters are likely to vote for him. I predict he could get a higher percent of black voters than anyone since Reagan, and quite possibly more than Reagan. Of course that was only 14%. All Trump has to do is to flip one in ten of the black voters who voted for Obama. What you are doing here is like a Serengeti strategy against an specific part of the argument, the problem you have is that item that is not the only factor that I’m using. And your point here is just a guess, Trump is not getting that 14%. > **[Fact check: Trump and the black vote](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/24/fact-check-trump-and-black-vote/80863480/)** > > In boasting of his support among African-American voters, Donald Trump made some false and misleading statements. > [@](#): > > Trump said a “recent poll” showed 25% of blacks support him in a hypothetical race against Hillary Clinton. That “recent poll” is actually from September. Six recent polls, all taken in February, show his support ranges from 4% to 12%. > > • Trump said Republican presidential candidates “usually get about 4% or 5%” of black support. That was the case in 2008 and 2012, when Barack Obama — the nation’s first black president — was on the ballot. But from 1980 to 2004, the Republican candidate received 8% to 12%, which is consistent with Trump’s support among blacks. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2894 "2016-03-26T23:04:03Z")
> [@glowacks](#): > > He could still be a leader of a Palestinian Christian militia, even if he’s not Palestinian. Yes, it’s not clear how all the adjectives in “Palestinian Christian militia leader” modify each other, it could be (Palestinian-Christian militia) leader or (Palestinian-Christian) (militia leader) or even (Palestinian ((Christian militia) leader). All of that ignores the fact that the Lebaneses Christians and Palestinians didn’t like each other and actively fought against each other. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phares was involved with the Sabra and Shatila massacres of Palestinian civilians. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2895 "2016-03-26T23:44:22Z")
Trump: "[Obama says ISIL instead of ISIS in order to annoy people"](http://crooksandliars.com/2016/03/actually-believed-someone-who-could-be). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2896 "2016-03-27T00:43:24Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I wouldn’t be surprised if Phares was involved with the Sabra and Shatila massacres of Palestinian civilians. I would. He sounds like a total Academic and a quick google shows he was getting stuff published in the early 80’s. Doesn’t look like he would have shed many tears though. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2897 "2016-03-27T02:33:44Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > I haven’t seen much good evidence one way or another of how many minority voters are likely to vote for him. I predict he could get a higher percent of black voters than anyone since Reagan, and quite possibly more than Reagan. Of course that was only 14%. All Trump has to do is to flip one in ten of the black voters who voted for Obama. He got that once, against Carter. Reagan v Mondale was a [9% GOP Black vote share](http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/). GHBush v Dukakis was [11%](http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1988/) GHBush v W.J. Clinton [10%](http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1992/) Dole did pretty well against W.J. Clinton - [12% share](http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1996/). GWBush v Gore [9%](http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2000/). And GWBush v Kerry got up to [11%](http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2004/). So roughly 9 to 12% is pretty standard with Obama’s keeping them down to 4 and 6% as stand-outs. Fun in [most recent, 3/23/16, Fox poll](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/03/23/fox-news-poll-national-general-election-32316/). Favorable/Unfavorable among Blacks for Clinton: 88 to 9. For Trump: 7 to 85. If election were held today, Clinton v Trump? 93 to 4 Clinton among Blacks polled. Yes big MOEs and the election is a long way away. But not much evidence for his performing at Reagan v Carter level in that demographic, or even Bush v Gore level. So far looking more like McCain v Obama level. But it could change … ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2898 "2016-03-27T02:44:12Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > All Trump has to do is to flip one in ten of the black voters who voted for Obama. What’s in it for them? ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2899 "2016-03-27T02:51:17Z")
A Facebook group called Trump Patriots aims to get bikers to provide security to all future Trump events. > **[Log in or sign up to view](https://m.facebook.com/TrumpPatriots/)** > > See posts, photos and more on Facebook. From their “About” page: > [@](#): > > About > > To provide outside security at all future Trump rallies and events. > Countering the paid protestor agitators increasing atmosphere of violence So, that should help settle things down. A little over 12,000 likes at the moment, including my Trump-loving friend, the police captain. My friend is beginning to worry me. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2900 "2016-03-27T03:24:18Z")
> [@](#): > > To provide outside security at all future Trump rallies and events. > Countering the paid protestor agitators increasing atmosphere of violence Will they get into a shootout with the [Lion’s Guard](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/trump-militia-forms-to-forcefully-protect-rally-goers-against-far-left-agitators/), which are also promising to protect Trump rallies? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2901 "2016-03-27T03:55:03Z")
Rumor has it that Bernie’s Brownshirts are recuiting experts in combat _tai chi_, and some of the most feared hacky-sack commandoes _evah_! (No one seems to know how these rumors get started…) ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2902 "2016-03-27T04:13:33Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > A Facebook group called Trump Patriots aims to get bikers to provide security to all future Trump events. Worked well at Altamont. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2903 "2016-03-27T04:22:23Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > Worked well at Altamont. Those were Hell’s Angels. These are trump Patriots. \*Totally \*different. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/2904 "2016-03-27T13:36:31Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > What’s in it for them? Jobs. Trump is targeting H1N1 visas (yah I know that is the label for an orthomyxovirus, I can’t remember the name of the vias…) Played properly to “urban youth” i.e. black people, it means foreign workers get the boot out of their communities, leaving behind job openings –\> real opportunities. From [here](http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-realistic-ways-donald-trump-can-accomplish-his-crazy-goals/): > [@donaldjtrump. com](#): > > Jobs program for inner city youth. The J-1 visa jobs program for foreign youth will be terminated and replaced with a resume bank for inner city youth provided to all corporate subscribers to the J-1 visa program. > [@](#): > > I mean, that’s literally what it says. The program that allows foreign workers will be eliminated, and that workforce will be replaced by applicants from inner-city areas. I promise you he doesn’t have that on his website because he’s planning to share those details in a fiery speech delivered to a bunch of backwoods racists. At some point, his arguments will have to get a little more detailed. Hoping he falls apart at that point because he hasn’t given any of this any thought beyond “Mexicans are bad” is foolish. > > For the record, eliminating visa programs to boost opportunities for inner-city residents is also taken directly from that letter Peter Kirsanow sent to Obama. I’m not promising this guy will have a role in the Trump campaign, but I am promising someone damn similar will. In a perfect world, by that time, Democrats will have come up with a more involved response to Trump’s immigration plans than just “That’s racist.” If they don’t, winning the minority vote will be significantly more difficult than anyone running against Trump might expect. It’s one thing for Democrats to call Trump racist for wanting to deport Mexicans. That’s easy. Calling him racist for wanting to deport undocumented workers because those jobs should be going to actual citizens of the United States who are just as in need of help as any immigrant group is another thing entirely. So I’d say there is at least a path for Trump to be effective with black voters in the general. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=144) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=146)