# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 154
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3065 "2016-04-01T18:18:47Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > If Trump loses, I expect him eventually to claim that he wasn’t really serious. Not because I think it’s true, but because he’s that type of person. Na, I think he will claim the other side cheated in some way, and that he was just too moral to sink to their level. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3066 "2016-04-01T18:36:40Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > No question it is true that the possibility of winning the House was to scoff at this time last year. Trump or Cruz as the nominee? Fair perhaps to say that few placed their chips on either of them; a more traditional nominee was expected, if not Bush then maybe Rubio, or Walker, or _even_ Christie. > > The conclusion of that article opines that “it’s an inexcusable mistake to not have viable candidates available to run everywhere. National parties need to plan for unforeseen events.” > > But resources _are_ limited. Being prepared for improbable events necessitates being less ready to deal with the probable. Spending to have a viable candidate running hard in a relatively longshot district means investing less in winning what you were expecting to be the much much closer ones. Decisions had to be made based on best predictions that could be made probably over two years ago. Not sure spending less on expected close elections to have some long shot chances in races they did not realistically expect would even remotely be in play would have been the most rational choice to make at the time. Assume that collective wisdom had been right - losing the Senate when it was winnable because you spent resources instead on what you realistically “knew” were unwinnable House seats and an unwinnable House, would have been a much worse inexcusable mistake. I agree with your logic, but the Dems fail that test too. As Dayen’s article points out, they have terrible candidates in D+1 and R+1 districts in New Jersey - exactly the sort of districts that you say (and I agree) the party _should_ focus much more resources in. And districts at the R+2 level - the sort of district that would be tough sledding in a midterm year, but quite within reach in a Presidential year - were going begging for candidates. However, in districts that are mostly beyond hope of winning, I think the Dems need to have _someone_ running wherever possible, just to show the flag, and make sure that they don’t have nobody at all speaking up for their side. No, they won’t be able to find _good_ candidates for a typical R+10 district, but they should have _somebody_ running in such districts. I think the Democratic Party could also provide some basic services to newbie candidates in such districts: they could hold a candidate training camp, so to speak, during the summer, and perhaps have a centralized back-office operation for those candidates with limited resources, so that Dem HQ could handle the money and bookkeeping for several dozen such candidates: the party should do everything it can to make sure new candidates don’t have to learn a whole bunch of reinventing-the-wheel stuff, but can just concentrate on being a candidate, and (unfortunately but inevitably) raising money. No, the Dems had no reason last summer to think that they’d have a potential landslide this year. But ISTM that they didn’t even do the right things to prepare for taking advantage of a 51-48 win at the top of the ticket, which has left them in a much bigger hole than they should be in when it comes to taking advantage of a landslide. Also, as things changed, they don’t seem to have reacted very rapidly. By the beginning of December, the GOP contest was already narrowing down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, and two of those guys were going to be a huge opportunity. I know I’ve been asking for months why everyone’s assuming the House is out of reach. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3067 "2016-04-01T18:36:47Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > It would be more fun if he said it at the convention. And more fun still if he said it in his acceptance speech. > But if his goal is to destroy the Republican party, he is following the most effective path. Screw up just enough to be below the number of delegates needed. Expect the establishment to “rob” him of the nomination, at least in the eyes of his supporters. Then go through the fall attacking the people who stabbed him in the back. > And then admit it - after Hilary is elected. So this was one thing that I wondered. What is the latest point at which the Republicans could conceivably switch candidates if Trump has a press conference revealing that his candidacy was all a version of the third wave experiment. I think that even if he has the majority of delegates pledged to him they can vote to suspend the rules at the start of the convention to switch candidates, but what if he waits to the end, or the day after the convention. Who would have the authority to decide that a different candidate should represent the Republicans? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3068 "2016-04-01T18:46:31Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Na, I think he will claim the other side cheated in some way, and that he was just too moral to sink to their level. Hmm. I guess I see that as a subset. “I could have won, if I had decided it was worth it to win.” ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3069 "2016-04-01T18:51:24Z")
Interesting article: [Donald Trump Clears the Air With Republican Leaders](http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/01/donald-trump-clears-the-air-with-republican-leaders/?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0) > [@](#): > > In the meeting, held at the committee’s headquarters, the Republican national chairman, Reince Priebus, laid out for the party’s front-runner the need for the committee and Mr. Trump’s campaign to have a good relationship, according to the three people, who insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations. > [@](#): > > Mr. Trump mentioned Louisiana, where he won the primary, but where Senator Ted Cruz is likely to come away with more delegates after exploiting peculiarities in the state’s system, according to those briefed on the meeting. > > The situation in Louisiana infuriated Mr. Trump, who threatened this week to sue the Republican National Committee over it. > > But when Mr. Priebus explained that each campaign needed to be prepared to fight for delegates at each state’s convention, Mr. Trump turned to his aides and suggested that they had not been doing what they needed to do, the people briefed on the meeting said. I find it funny that Priebus basically has to ask Trump to please stop trashing them, and also that despite Trump often saying that he’ll hire the best people, and it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t know an issue he’ll hire the best advisers to help him, he doesn’t have the best people working on his campaign to get the delegates. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3070 "2016-04-01T18:57:05Z")
Good job of openly blaming the staff, Donald. Keep those future tell-all books coming! 😃 I expect the first one to appear by Christmas… unless, of course, he wins and then suspends the First Amendment for “… being lame, so lame. What a loser Amendment.” ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3071 "2016-04-01T19:01:21Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > So this was one thing that I wondered. What is the latest point at which the Republicans could conceivably switch candidates if Trump has a press conference revealing that his candidacy was all a version of the third wave experiment. I think that even if he has the majority of delegates pledged to him they can vote to suspend the rules at the start of the convention to switch candidates, but what if he waits to the end, or the day after the convention. Who would have the authority to decide that a different candidate should represent the Republicans? I have somehow become the resident RNC parliamentarian around here: > [@](#): > > RULE NO. 9 > Filling Vacancies in Nominations > (a) The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may > occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the > Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States, as nominated by the national convention, or the Republican > National Committee may reconvene the national convention for the purpose of filling any such vacancies. > (b) In voting under this rule, the Republican National Committee members representing any state shall be entitled to > cast the same number of votes as said state was entitled to cast at the national convention. (c) In the event that the members of the > Republican National Committee from any state shall not be in agreement in the casting of votes hereunder, the votes of such state > shall be divided equally, including fractional votes, among the members of the Republican National Committee present or voting > by proxy. > (d) No candidate shall be chosen to fill any such vacancy except upon receiving a majority of the votes entitled to be > cast in the election. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3072 "2016-04-01T19:28:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > What they overlook - speaking as a liberal - is that we liberals aren’t sufficiently organized to run a half-decent conspiracy. 😉 I’ve never been a fan of underestimating one’s opposition. That’s an easy way to die by ambush. But years ago I was locked in a tussle with another corporate group. Some of our team kept insisting the other side was doing elaborate schemes & conspiracies. My comment: “Those fools can’t plan, let alone plot.” Turns out I was right in that case. Not sure exactly what applicability it has to Rs or Ds right now, but it’s a hell of a one-liner that fits many situations. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3073 "2016-04-01T20:07:30Z")
I agree with **asahi** , but I’d make the argument a little differently. Over at 538, they note that Trump’s demographic projections put him at the knife-edge of getting sufficient delegates to win the first ballot. So he’s not actually in that great of a position. Add to that the fact that part of his support is tied up in being a winner. If he starts to underperform, that part of the vote goes away. Which causes more underperformance. Finally, the media operates on expectations. If Trump falls 200 delegates short of the magic number, that objectively strong performance can be spun as a disaster for him. The one complication I see is that Cruz is unacceptable to the party elite as well. And Kasich may not win 8 states. So… we actually can’t rule out a Trump victory in a contested nomination. He’s a good person to person sales guy who may be able to sell key members of the establishment that he would be better for them than Cruz. OTthirdH, my instincts say that in Trump nirvana he would be king-maker rather than President. He could team up with Rove and choose a fresh face to head the party. Carl Icahn. You heard it here first. That’s a joke. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3074 "2016-04-01T20:15:09Z")
But Measure, that means you don’t agree with asahi. He is saying Trump is done finished, not on the knifes edge. Asahi wonders if Trump will be so demolished by convention time if he’ll even be a factor. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3075 "2016-04-01T20:35:30Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > … And Kasich may not win 8 states… He may very well not need to, if “they” decide to clutch for Kasich, or, for that matter, the “fresh new face” that Karl Rove suggests. My understanding is that they vote on the rules before the real business starts. The Rules Committee makes up a proposal, and the convention votes on it. There are no rules until this happens. What _was_ the rule is poof! gone. I worked in a food coop collective, and thought that our meetings were chaotic. I have revised that opinion. Buncha radical hippies are the very model of calm and reasoned discourse. By comparison, of course. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3076 "2016-04-01T20:40:06Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > the “fresh new face” that Karl Rove suggests A name too, or just a face? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3077 "2016-04-01T20:48:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > A name too, or just a face? [Just a face.](http://faithlesspilgrims.weebly.com/uploads/1/6/6/5/16654418/7683361_orig.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3078 "2016-04-01T21:02:56Z")
I wonder who that fresh new face might be? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3079 "2016-04-01T21:06:16Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > [Just a face.](http://faithlesspilgrims.weebly.com/uploads/1/6/6/5/16654418/7683361_orig.jpg) We’ll call him Boe. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3080 "2016-04-01T21:54:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > A name too, or just a face? > [@running\_coach](#): > > [Just a face.](http://faithlesspilgrims.weebly.com/uploads/1/6/6/5/16654418/7683361_orig.jpg) > [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > I wonder who that fresh new face might be? > [@jsgoddess](#): > > We’ll call him Boe. McKay. Bill McKay. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3081 "2016-04-01T22:41:53Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > He may very well not need to, if “they” decide to clutch for Kasich, or, for that matter, the “fresh new face” that Karl Rove suggests. My understanding is that they vote on the rules before the real business starts. The Rules Committee makes up a proposal, and the convention votes on it. There are no rules until this happens. What _was_ the rule is poof! gone. > > I worked in a food coop collective, and thought that our meetings were chaotic. I have revised that opinion. Buncha radical hippies are the very model of calm and reasoned discourse. By comparison, of course. Well, the RNC delegates just need to smoke some of what you guys (presumably) smoked. It couldn’t hurt, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3082 "2016-04-01T22:46:05Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I think it’s a number of things. > > It’s politically dangerous to say the women will be punished. > > Some people just haven’t thought it all the way through. The exact scope of who is punished when hasn’t been on the front burner for decades. > > There’s some paternalism in there about women making choices. Yes, bingo. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Because women are empty-headed vessels lacking agency, who wouldn’t dream of having abortions until persuaded by ruthless abortionists into letting the abortionists kill their babies for fun and profit. > > At least, that seems to be the pro-life justification for [what Fred Clark calls the Standard Answer](http://www.patheos.com/blogs/slacktivist/2016/03/31/donald-trump-did-not-know-the-standard-answer-on-criminalizing-abortion/): Yup, this too. > [@jsgoddess](#): > > Hmm. I guess I see that as a subset. “I could have won, if I had decided it was worth it to win.” Yup, this is the tune Jesse Ventura has sung for years. He could have been president if he had decided to run, says Jesse. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2016, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3083 "2016-04-02T01:28:38Z")
To me, this campaign is turning into “Being There”, except that Chauncey Garndner is a loudmouth who is TOO aware of television. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2016, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/3084 "2016-04-03T05:09:10Z")
OK, the sky has officially fallen. [[http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/02/politics/donald-trump-heidi-cruz-tweet/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/02/politics/donald-trump-heidi-cruz-tweet/index.html)](The Donald admits to mistakes.) Could he possibly be listening to someone other than himself for once? Maybe his kids held an intervention. Or maybe he just realized that he’s made too many stupid statements recently. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=153) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=155)