# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 205
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4086 "2016-05-03T00:56:31Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Strongly worded opinion pieces in the newspaper? > > Actually, Dseid and Einstein, in posts 4052-4055, stated similar positions better than I have. They’re not objecting to protest itself, as you are. They’re objecting to the manner of protest. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4087 "2016-05-03T00:56:40Z")
I’m not reading this entire thread. Does Trump have it locked up? [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican\_delegate\_count.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html) Trump needs 241. There are several winner take all states, including Indiana and California which Trump will probably win. Those 2 states alone provide 229, if Trump wins a majority of them in both states, he just needs 1 or 2 other states to win. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4088 "2016-05-03T01:04:46Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > They’re not objecting to protest itself, as you are. They’re objecting to the manner of protest. OK, you got me – I guess I don’t really think what I think. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4089 "2016-05-03T01:33:58Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m not reading this entire thread. Does Trump have it locked up? > > [RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 — Republican Delegate Count](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html) > > Trump needs 241. There are several winner take all states, including Indiana and California which Trump will probably win. Those 2 states alone provide 229, if Trump wins a majority of them in both states, he just needs 1 or 2 other states to win. Yes, it’s ogre at this point. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4090 "2016-05-03T01:45:15Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Yes, it’s ogre at this point. You’re so confident. What’s your final delegate count estimate? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4091 "2016-05-03T02:22:34Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Yes, it’s ogre at this point. Shrek wins! ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4092 "2016-05-03T02:32:53Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Yes, it’s ogre at this point. [![](https://64.media.tumblr.com/bffe42db49c4df87fb32ac641a0a2b5f/tumblr_nzexmicLPu1sl5f4qo1_500.jpg) ](https://64.media.tumblr.com/bffe42db49c4df87fb32ac641a0a2b5f/tumblr_nzexmicLPu1sl5f4qo1_500.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4093 "2016-05-03T02:37:42Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m not reading this entire thread. Does Trump have it locked up? > > [RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 — Republican Delegate Count](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html) > > Trump needs 241. There are several winner take all states, including Indiana and California which Trump will probably win. Those 2 states alone provide 229, if Trump wins a majority of them in both states, he just needs 1 or 2 other states to win. I don’t know about Indiana, but California is most definitely NOT winner take all. The winner of each Congressional district gets three delegates and the overall winner of the state gets ten more. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4094 "2016-05-03T02:42:35Z")
Trump must think that not consulting fact checkers will not make any difference if he becomes president. > **[Donald Trump repeats false story about ‘shooting Muslims with pigs’ blood’ -...](https://globalnews.ca/news/2670859/donald-trump-repeats-false-story-about-shooting-muslims-with-pigs-blood/)** > > In his latest round of controversial comments, Republican presidential contender Donald Trump repeated a long debunked story about a U.S. general using bullets dipped in pigs’ blood to execute Muslim prisoners. > [@](#): > > In his latest round of controversial comments, Republican presidential contender Donald Trump repeated a long debunked story about a U.S. general using bullets dipped in pigs’ blood to execute Muslim prisoners. > > According to Trump, during the Philippine-American War of 1899-1902, Gen. John Pershing captured 50 “radical Islamic terrorists” and executed 49 of them with the blood-soaked bullets. > [@](#): > > The myth which has circulated in corners of the internet for years and has been dismissed by several fact-checking websites, including Snopes and Politifact, which have called it false and unsupported by any kind of historical documentation. The note comes from Trump repeating that hoax **again** in California a few days ago, never mind that he was told by Politifact back in February that he had his pants on fire when he vomited it in Charleston, S.C. > **[Donald Trump cites dubious legend about Gen. Pershing, pig's blood and Muslims](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/feb/23/donald-trump/donald-trump-cites-dubious-legend-about-gen-pershi/)** > > Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump raised eyebrows during a recent rally when he offered a counterinsurgency Donald Trump as president would indeed be the best recruiting tool for ISIS/DAESH ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4095 "2016-05-03T03:15:54Z")
I had to add this: if you think having a president with such a “politically incorrect” mouth (in reality that was not politically incorrect, it was just wrong and idiotic) is nothing to worry about, we just have to remember that during the Bush the lesser years it was a big blunder to use the word “crusade” in the context of hunting the perpetrators of 9/11 in Muslim nations. [http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/faith-certainty-and-the-presidency-of-george-w-bush.html](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/faith-certainty-and-the-presidency-of-george-w-bush.html) > [@](#): > > It was during a press conference on Sept. 16, in response to a question about homeland security efforts infringing on civil rights, that Bush first used the telltale word “crusade” in public. “This is a new kind of – a new kind of evil,” he said. “And we understand. And the American people are beginning to understand. This crusade, this war on terrorism is going to take a while.” > > Muslims around the world were incensed. Two days later, Ari Fleischer tried to perform damage control. “I think what the president was saying was – had no intended consequences for anybody, Muslim or otherwise, other than to say that this is a broad cause that he is calling on America and the nations around the world to join.” As to “any connotations that would upset any of our partners, or anybody else in the world, the president would regret if anything like that was conveyed.” Ari Fleisher is still around so I guess he will have to apologize a lot for Trump if he becomes president, at least if Trump was reasonable enough to put someone like Ari as a “damage control officer”… Nah, Trump is bound to select a “no apologies” cad like him in a position like that. Not good and only conductive to causing more friction in explosive situations. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4096 "2016-05-03T03:19:18Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > I don’t know about Indiana, but California is most definitely NOT winner take all. The winner of each Congressional district gets three delegates and the overall winner of the state gets ten more. It just said winner take all on RCP, I’m not sure of the details. Polls in CA are showing Trump at about 50%, Cruz at 25% and Kasich at 17%. Shouldn’t those margins be enough for Trump to take pretty much all the delegates? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4097 "2016-05-03T03:32:39Z")
Pretty much. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4098 "2016-05-03T03:34:40Z")
> [@](#): > > A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. > **[Trump 41%, Clinton 39%](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39)** > > Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38%... ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4099 "2016-05-03T03:42:34Z")
I’ll add if those numbers hold I think the expert panel at 538 is gonna be embarrassed. They have Trump just getting over half the delegates. I mean there can be clumping of support but… > **[Can You Get Trump To 1,237?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/)** > > Estimate how many delegates Donald Trump will win in each upcoming contest and see whether it's enough to clinch the Republican nomination. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4100 "2016-05-03T03:47:46Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public\_content/politics/elections/election\_2016/trump\_41\_clinton\_39](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39) [Rasmussen has been consistent on showing more support for the Republican candidate than what it ended up happening](http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/11/07/scott_rasmussen_explains_why_his_polls_didn_t_forsee_an_obama_win.html). Just good enough to reduce the advantage that Hillary still has in the aggregate, and she is still ahead. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4101 "2016-05-03T03:58:45Z")
But I will not be surprising to see the election become closer come November, (the MSM still has to squeeze that Trump orange dry) unfortunately for Trump it is also a matter of the electoral map and if a huge battleground state like Florida is more in favor of Clinton then it is almost over for the diseased Yak: [http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/florida-poll-hillary-clinton-easily-beats-ted-cruz-or-donald-trump/2275571](http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/florida-poll-hillary-clinton-easily-beats-ted-cruz-or-donald-trump/2275571) > [@](#): > > In the ballot scenarios, Secretary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 13% (49-36) and is comfortably leading him amongst NMP’s (+17%), Females (+22%), Hispanics (+43%) and every other demographic crosstab except whites, where Trump leads Clinton by 8%. Within his own party, Trump loses 15% of Republicans surveyed to Clinton. One should not also forget that recently Clinton showed going ahead of Trump in Utah and tied in freaking Arizona. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4102 "2016-05-03T05:38:21Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public\_content/politics/elections/election\_2016/trump\_41\_clinton\_39](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39) Out of the past 65 national polls, Clinton has led Trump is 63 of them. Sooner or later, you’re going to have an outlier poll but there’s no reason to get excited about it until you see other similar polls showing a trend. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4103 "2016-05-03T05:43:51Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > It just said winner take all on RCP, I’m not sure of the details. Polls in CA are showing Trump at about 50%, Cruz at 25% and Kasich at 17%. Shouldn’t those margins be enough for Trump to take pretty much all the delegates? Not really. There are 53 districts. The polls would need to show how they stand in each district. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4104 "2016-05-03T05:45:22Z")
I’ll revise my statement since the 63-out-of-65 was a number I saw today and I think refers to HuffPo’s aggregates but I’m not 100% sure. So, instead I’ll say that the last time Trump led a general election poll against Clinton was 28 polls ago on Feb 11th when a USA Today poll had him at +2. There was also a tie a couple days ago but that was another Rasmussen poll. Point remains, there’s no trend showing here. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/4105 "2016-05-03T09:34:15Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Journalist Julia Ioffe (a Russian-born Jew) does a not-very-damaging profile of Trump’s current wife Melania . . . [and gets hit with a wave of anti-Semitic hate-mail/tweets/phone calls](http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/28/julia-ioffe-journalist-melania-trump-antisemitic-abuse?CMP=share_btn_tw). Including pix of a concentration-camp inmate with Ioffe’s picture superimposed. > > I’m sure neither Donald nor Melania is in any way actively behind this, but it makes you stop and think about some of the people in Trump’s base. And Australian artist Illma Gore does an extremely unflattering portrait of Trump and [gets punched in the face](http://www.dailylife.com.au/dl-people/dl-entertainment/australian-artist-behind-unflattering-donald-trump-nude-assaulted-in-los-angeles-street-20160503-gol1jz.html). She’s also been receiving death threats from supporters as well as threats of legal action from - guess who? Assuming this doesn’t turn out to be a manufactured publicity stunt, I may keep this story in my back pocket for the next time someone declares that only Muslims get violent when faced with mocking images of their idols. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=204) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=206)